The Liberal Party Secures Nepean Amid Fierce Competition
In a closely watched contest on Victoria's Mornington Peninsula, the Liberal Party has retained the state seat of Nepean in the by-election held on May 2, 2026. Anthony Marsh, the local shire mayor and Liberal candidate, emerged victorious with 38.5 percent of the primary vote, fending off a strong challenge from Pauline Hanson's One Nation and a popular independent. The two-candidate preferred result saw Marsh secure 63.5 percent against independent Tracee Hutchison's 36.5 percent, marking a comfortable hold despite a notable primary vote swing against the Liberals.
The electorate, encompassing coastal communities from Safety Beach to Portsea, saw a turnout of 79.8 percent among 50,910 enrolled voters, with 38,745 formal votes cast. While the Liberals celebrated the win as a boost ahead of the November state election, the result highlighted shifting voter dynamics, with One Nation polling 24.7 percent on debut and Hutchison capturing 21.3 percent.
Background to the By-Election
Nepean became vacant following the resignation of Liberal MP Sam Groth on February 13, 2026. Groth, a former professional tennis player who entered parliament in 2022 after defeating Labor's Chris Brayne, stepped down citing intense public and family pressure. His tenure was marked by a successful defamation lawsuit against a major newspaper and a brief stint as deputy Liberal leader under John Pesutto, amid internal party turmoil.
The seat has long been a Liberal stronghold, with Labor only winning in the 2018 landslide under Daniel Andrews. In 2022, Groth reclaimed it with 56.4 percent two-party preferred. Boundaries cover 387 square kilometers of bayside and oceanfront suburbs, known for affluent retirees, tourism, and small businesses. The absence of a Labor candidate— a strategic decision by Premier Jacinta Allan's government—shifted focus to the Liberal-One Nation-Independent battle.
Key Candidates and Their Platforms
Eight candidates vied for the seat, drawn in ballot order:
- Anthony Marsh (Liberal): Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor since 2024, ex-RAAF officer, and business owner. Campaigned on infrastructure upgrades, hospital expansion at Rosebud, and more police.
- Darren Hercus (One Nation): Safety Beach truss manufacturer and civil engineer. Focused on small business relief, opposing immigration pressures on housing, and local job protection.
- Tracee Hutchison (Independent): Rosebud-born broadcaster (Triple J, ABC, SBS). Advocated for arts funding, climate action reversal, heritage preservation, and community services amid shire cuts.
- Sianan Healy (Greens): Women's health researcher pushing environmental protection and social equity.
- Others included Renee Thompson (Legalise Cannabis), Reade Smith (Sustainable Australia), Peter Angelico (Libertarian), and Milton Wilde (Reform AU).
Marsh's selection bypassed traditional preselection, drawing internal grumbles but local support.
Campaign Dynamics and Local Issues
The campaign centered on Mornington Peninsula pain points: crumbling roads ('pothole crisis'), Rosebud Hospital rebuild delays, housing affordability amid tourism boom, rising crime, and cost-of-living squeezes. A Liberal stunt filling potholes drew safety backlash, while leaked texts showed Marsh's past Labor leanings.
One Nation surged on anti-establishment sentiment, echoing South Australian gains, but faced donation scrutiny—Hercus directed funds to a personal account post a High Court ruling. Hutchison galvanized locals against shire austerity, including arts/heritage slashes and climate declaration rescind. Preference deals emerged: Liberals and One Nation swapped how-to-votes, potentially key.
High early voting (over 50 percent) reflected engagement, with debates highlighting divides on privatization fears (hospital) and immigration.
Photo by alexey turenkov on Unsplash
Election Night Results Unfold
Polls closed at 6pm, with counting starting swiftly. Marsh led primaries from booths like Sorrento (55%) and Blairgowrie (41%). One Nation topped in Dromana Beach (30%) and Rosebud West (27%). Hutchison shone in Flinders (37%) and Shoreham (42%).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Marsh | Liberal | 14,927 | 38.5 | -9.6 |
| Darren Hercus | One Nation | 9,556 | 24.7 | +24.7 |
| Tracee Hutchison | Independent | 8,239 | 21.3 | +21.3 |
| Sianan Healy | Greens | 3,597 | 9.3 | +0.5 |
| Others | - | 2,426 | 6.2 | - |
Provisional TCP: Marsh 24,587 (63.5%) def. Hutchison 14,143 (36.5%). Informal 4.6%.
Understanding the Swings
Liberals lost 9.6pp primary amid One Nation's debut 24.7pp and Hutchison's 21.3pp, filling Labor's 32.6pp void. TCP swing +6.8pp to Libs (vs Ind), better than 2022's Lib-Lab. Preferences: 62% to Marsh overall, Greens heavily to Libs. One Nation third, but strong in working-class booths like Rosebud.
Turnout dip reflects by-election norms, early votes favored Marsh.
Reactions from the Podiums
Marsh: "Honour of my life... We'll fight for Nepean." Wilson: "Great news... Labor neglected by not contesting." Hercus: Plans general election push, blasts Liberal mailers. Hutchison: Emotional, vows November return. Hanson: Targets Victoria next.
Implications for Victoria's Political Landscape
Lib retention boosts Wilson pre-state poll, but primary erosion signals One Nation bleed in outer metro/regional seats. No Labor test shields Allan govt, but minor surges echo national trends. Watch Flinders federal overlap. Full prefs (May 16) confirm order.
Official VEC results detail the count.
Photo by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash
Historical Context and Voter Profile
Nepean (ex-Dromana): Lib since 1967 bar Labor landslides (1982,2018). Older, affluent bayside voters prioritize services. 2022 federal: Lib held Flinders vs ind.
Looking Ahead to November
By-election previews Lib recovery potential vs Labor fatigue, but One Nation/inds fragment right. Peninsula priorities—hospital, roads—national issues. Wilson eyes lessons for unified campaign.
