Southern Brazil Braces for Potentially Historic El Niño Rains
Communities across southern Brazil are racing to strengthen defenses and complete recovery projects as meteorologists forecast a powerful El Niño event that could bring record-breaking rainfall later this year. The warning comes as residents in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina continue rebuilding from devastating floods that struck the region in 2024 and again in early 2026.
The Shadow of Past Disasters
In April and May 2024, extreme rainfall linked to El Niño conditions triggered catastrophic flooding across Rio Grande do Sul. Rivers overflowed, submerging neighborhoods, airports, and stadiums. At least 180 people lost their lives, and more than 581,000 residents were displaced. The event was described as the worst climate tragedy in the state's history. Recovery efforts remain ongoing two years later, with many families still living in temporary housing or repairing damaged homes and infrastructure.
February 2026 brought another round of heavy rains, flash floods, and landslides that affected southern and southeastern states including Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo. These repeated shocks have left local governments and residents acutely aware of the need for better preparedness.
Understanding El Niño and Its Regional Effects
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming alters global atmospheric circulation patterns, often leading to above-average rainfall in parts of South America, including southern Brazil, while causing drier conditions in northern regions of the country and elsewhere.
In southern Brazil, El Niño typically increases the likelihood of prolonged heavy rainfall, raising the risk of flooding, landslides, and river overflows. Historical data shows that many of the region's most extreme precipitation events have occurred during El Niño years.
The 2026 Forecast: A Potentially Record Event
Leading Brazilian climatologist Carlos Nobre has issued a stark warning about the El Niño expected to strengthen in the second half of 2026. Speaking at events including Rio Nature and Climate Week, Nobre stated that the phenomenon is projected to be strong, even very strong, with the potential to break records particularly between September and November.
The United Nations weather agency has forecast a moderate to strong El Niño overall. Some models suggest a chance it could reach “super” status, defined by significantly higher ocean temperature anomalies that amplify weather extremes worldwide.
Photo by Vinicius "amnx" Amano on Unsplash
Targeted Preparations in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina
Authorities in the most vulnerable states are accelerating infrastructure projects and disaster-response planning. In Rio Grande do Sul, officials are expediting flood-protection works that were originally scheduled for later dates. The state government has allocated 38 million reais for a new logistics center to support disaster operations and 33 million reais for an El Niño readiness program aimed at vulnerable municipalities.
Local leaders emphasize the importance of early warning systems, improved drainage, and community education on evacuation procedures. Residents in flood-prone areas are being encouraged to prepare emergency kits and identify safe routes to higher ground.
The Role of Climate Change in Amplifying Risks
Scientific studies have shown that human-caused climate change is making extreme rainfall events in southern Brazil more likely and more intense. A 2026 analysis published in npj Natural Hazards found that the 2024 floods became approximately twice as likely due to global warming of about 1.2 °C, with El Niño conditions further doubling the probability relative to neutral years.
These findings underscore the combined influence of natural variability and long-term climate trends, highlighting the urgency of both immediate preparedness and long-term adaptation measures.
Broader Impacts on Agriculture, Infrastructure, and Communities
Heavy rains associated with a strong El Niño can disrupt agriculture by waterlogging fields, damaging crops, and delaying harvests. Southern Brazil is a major producer of soybeans, rice, and livestock, so widespread flooding could have significant economic consequences.
Infrastructure faces repeated stress. Roads, bridges, and urban drainage systems already strained by previous events may require substantial upgrades. Power outages, water contamination, and disruptions to schools and health services are common during major floods.
Psychological and social impacts are also significant. Repeated displacements and property losses contribute to long-term stress for affected populations, particularly in lower-income neighborhoods often located in higher-risk zones.
Lessons from Previous Events and International Examples
Recovery from the 2024 floods has provided valuable lessons. Organizations such as the Red Cross have supported anticipatory actions including cash transfers, distribution of resilient seeds, and reinforcement of flood defenses. Similar approaches are being considered for the upcoming season.
Experts recommend drawing on experiences from other regions facing comparable risks, such as improved land-use planning to avoid building in floodplains and investment in green infrastructure like restored wetlands that can absorb excess water.
Photo by Samuel Costa Melo on Unsplash
Future Outlook and Recommended Actions
While El Niño is a natural cycle, its intensity in 2026 could test the limits of current preparedness. Continued monitoring by Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) will be essential.
Recommended actions include:
- Completing critical drainage and embankment projects before peak rainfall months
- Expanding community-based early warning networks
- Investing in nature-based solutions alongside traditional engineering
- Strengthening coordination between federal, state, and municipal agencies
- Supporting vulnerable households with resources for home elevation or relocation where necessary
Longer-term resilience will also require addressing underlying factors such as deforestation in watersheds and rapid urbanization in risky areas.
Conclusion: A Call for Coordinated Resilience
Southern Brazil stands at a critical juncture. With memories of recent floods still fresh and a potentially historic El Niño on the horizon, proactive steps taken now can save lives and reduce future losses. Collaboration across government levels, scientific institutions, and local communities offers the best path forward in managing this recurring climate challenge.
