The Groundbreaking Study from Brazilian Universities

Recent research spearheaded by Brazil's leading academic institutions has uncovered a stark reality: ultra-processed foods (UPFs), those industrially formulated products laden with additives, sugars, fats, and salts, are linked to approximately 57,000 premature deaths annually in Brazil among adults aged 30 to 69. This figure, representing over 10% of all premature deaths in this age group in 2019, comes from a pivotal modeling study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine by researchers from the Núcleo de Pesquisas Epidemiológicas em Nutrição e Saúde (Nupens) at the University of São Paulo (USP) and collaborators at Fiocruz.

The study utilized data from the 2017-2018 Brazilian dietary surveys, combined with mortality statistics, to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of UPF consumption. By applying a comparative risk assessment model, similar to those used in the Global Burden of Disease project, the team calculated that UPFs contribute significantly to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), the leading cause of these deaths. A related analysis focused specifically on CVD outcomes estimated that UPFs account for 22% of premature CVD deaths and substantial disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost.

Lead researchers, including Fabiana de Luca from Nupens/USP and Renata Bertazzi Levy, highlighted the urgency: reducing UPF intake by just 10% in daily calories could prevent nearly 6,000 deaths yearly, while a 50% cut might save over 29,000 lives. This work underscores the role of Brazilian universities in tackling national health crises through rigorous, data-driven epidemiology.

Defining Ultra-Processed Foods: The NOVA Classification

Ultra-processed foods are classified under the NOVA system, developed by researchers at the University of São Paulo, which categorizes foods based on the extent and purpose of industrial processing rather than nutrients alone. Group 4—UPFs—includes formulations with five or more ingredients, many unavailable for home cooking, such as high-fructose corn syrup, hydrogenated oils, emulsifiers, flavors, and colors. These products are designed for hyper-palatability, extended shelf life, and convenience.

Common examples in Brazil include packaged snacks (salgadinhos), sodas, instant noodles, frozen pizzas, sugary cereals, ready-to-eat meals, and even some breads and yogurts with additives. Unlike minimally processed foods (fresh fruits, vegetables, grains) or processed culinary ingredients (oils, sugar), UPFs displace nutrient-dense options, leading to overconsumption of empty calories.

Brazilian studies from USP show UPFs now comprise 20-23% of average caloric intake, up from 10% in the 1980s, driven by aggressive marketing and affordability. A 2025 USP mapping revealed regional variations: higher in urban South and Southeast (up to 25%), lower in rural North but rising rapidly.

Rising Consumption Trends Across Brazil

University-led surveys paint a concerning picture of UPF penetration. Nupens/USP data from 2025 indicates UPFs contribute 20.2% of national caloric intake on average, with women at 19.5% and men at 21%. Among adolescents, it's even higher at 25-30%, per Unifesp research. During the COVID-19 pandemic, consumption surged, with a Unip study showing increased reliance on packaged goods.

Recent Fiocruz analysis confirms the doubling since the 1980s, fueled by supermarket dominance—UPFs occupy 60% of shelf space—and subsidies making them cheaper than fresh produce. A 2025 Semesp report highlights trends: 60% of new supermarket products are UPFs, with youth in universities consuming them daily (e.g., 33% embutidos).

• Urban vs. Rural: 25% urban caloric share vs. 15% rural.
• Income Levels: Paradoxically higher among lower-income groups due to cost.
• Age Groups: Peaks in 18-39 years, per USP cohort studies.

For those pursuing careers in nutrition or public health, explore opportunities at higher-ed-jobs in Brazilian universities driving this research.

Health Impacts: A Cascade of Noncommunicable Diseases

Beyond mortality, UPFs drive a spectrum of health issues validated by Brazilian university research. USP's Nupens links them to obesity (UPF consumers 2x more likely), type 2 diabetes (50% higher risk), and 32 cancers. A 2025 Unifesp study found UPFs modify depression-diabetes links, exacerbating mental health.

CVD dominates: 59% of UPF-attributable deaths per the 2022 model. Mechanisms include inflammation from additives, blood pressure spikes from sodium, and insulin resistance from sugars/fats. Longitudinal cohorts at Fiocruz show accelerated cognitive decline, with UPF-heavy diets raising dementia risk 50%.

Dental caries in adolescents (Nature 2024, Brazilian cohort) and multimorbidity in elderly (Frontiers 2025) add to the burden. Step-by-step: UPFs alter gut microbiome → chronic low-grade inflammation → endothelial dysfunction → atherosclerosis → heart events.

Photo by Thibaut Charp on Unsplash

The Economic Burden: R$104 Billion Annually

Fiocruz's 2024 ObHA study quantifies the toll: R$104 billion yearly, 90% from premature deaths (lost productivity). Direct healthcare costs R$10 billion. This exceeds homicides (50k/year) and rivals traffic accidents.

98% of UPFs contain harmful ingredients (USP 2023). Taxing them could generate revenue while cutting consumption—modeling shows 50% tax prevents 236k deaths over 20 years (Fiocruz/USP). University economists at Unesp model 8.6% GDP boost from healthier diets.

Stakeholders: Industry defends jobs; health experts (USP, Fiocruz) urge front-of-pack labeling (already law) and marketing bans. Global parallels: Mexico's soda tax cut sales 10%.

Read more on career paths in public health research via higher-ed-career-advice.

Who Is Most Affected? Demographics and Inequities

Men (higher consumption) and 50-69 age group bear 60% of deaths (Nupens). Lower-income urban dwellers: UPFs cheaper (R$0.50/100kcal vs. R$1.50 fresh). North/Northeast rising fastest due to urbanization.

University studies (Unifesp 2025) show students: 33% daily processed meats. Indigenous/rural shifts: UPFs erode traditional diets. Fiocruz highlights gender gaps—women cook more but consume similarly.

Brazilian Universities at the Forefront of Research

USP's Nupens pioneers NOVA, training global epidemiologists. Fiocruz models policy impacts. Recent: 2025 USP meta-analysis (8 countries incl. Brazil) shows 3% mortality rise per 10% UPF increase. Unesp, UFRGS contribute caries, mental health data.

Collaborations yield maps (20.2% national UPF). Future: PNPDs (Fiocruz) simulates taxation. For academics, university-jobs in nutrition epidemiology abound.

Global Context and Comparisons

Brazil's 4-10% attributable deaths lower than US/UK (14%), per 2025 AJPM global study. But absolute numbers high due to population. Consumption 20% vs. 50-60% in high-income nations.

Lancet 2025 series warns UPFs fuel NCDs worldwide; Brazil's school feeding bans UPFs (90% fresh). Mexico/Chile taxes work; Brazil's labeling (2022) initial step.

Policy Solutions and Taxation Debates

Guia Alimentar (Min. Saúde) advises avoiding UPFs. Experts recommend:

• Taxes (30-50% on sugary/fatty UPFs)
• Marketing bans to kids
• Subsidies for fresh foods
• Front-of-pack warnings

Fiocruz models: R$1.80/L soda tax saves 74k lives/decade. Industry resists; universities advocate evidence-based policy.

Photo by Nadine Marfurt on Unsplash

Actionable Insights for Everyday Life

Reduce UPFs step-by-step: Read labels (avoid 5+ ingredients), cook from scratch, prioritize NOVA groups 1-3. University nutrition programs offer tips: swap soda for water, nuggets for grilled chicken.

• Shop perimeter of stores
• Meal prep weekly
• Use herbs/spices over ready sauces
• Track intake via apps

Future Outlook: Research and Hope

Brazilian unis gear for longitudinal cohorts, AI modeling (USP). Tax reforms loom post-2026 elections. Positive: UPF awareness rises; youth demand change.

Optimistic: With policy shifts, 20% reduction feasible by 2030, saving 100k+ lives. Explore prof roles in this field at higher-ed-jobs/faculty or research-assistant-jobs.