Understanding the Scope of Firearm-Related Injuries and Mortality in Canada

Firearm-related injuries and deaths represent a significant public health challenge in Canada, contributing to preventable premature mortality. Despite stringent gun control measures compared to many countries, Canada ranks third among G7 nations in age-adjusted firearm-related mortality rates. Between 2013 and 2022, firearm-related violent crime incidents rose by 55%, from 23.7 to 36.7 per 100,000 population, with more than 41% of homicides in 2022 involving firearms—the highest proportion in three decades. In 2023, police-reported firearm-related violent crimes totaled 14,416 incidents, a rate of 36.9 per 100,000, though slightly down from 2022, still markedly higher than pre-2018 levels.

Urban centers bear much of the burden, with cities like Toronto recording 461 shootings and firearm discharges in 2024, a 33.6% increase from the previous year, alongside 43 gun-related deaths. Provinces such as Saskatchewan and Manitoba report the highest firearm homicide rates, while racial disparities are stark: in 2022, African, Caribbean, and Black individuals accounted for 25% of firearm homicide victims despite comprising only 4.3% of the population, and Indigenous peoples 17% of victims. These trends underscore the urgent need for targeted research to inform prevention strategies.

The New Study: Methodology and Expert Consensus Building

The landmark study, "Closing the knowledge gap: identifying research priorities for firearm-related injury and mortality in Canada," published in January 2026 in Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention in Canada, employs a rigorous two-stage nominal group technique to pinpoint knowledge gaps. Stage 1 convened 15 experts—including clinicians, advocates, decision-makers, and community representatives—on September 20, 2023, to generate ideas across three domains: unintentional firearm injuries (22 gaps identified), intimate partner violence (IPV)/femicide-related (16 gaps), and other assault-related firearm injuries (33 gaps). They prioritized 5, 3, and 7 gaps respectively based on importance and feasibility.

Stage 2, held during the Canadian Academy of Health Sciences forum "Gun Violence is a Public Health Issue" in Toronto on September 27-28, 2023, involved 43 stakeholders voting anonymously using weighted scores (top priority = 5 points). This process yielded a ranked list of priorities, marking the first national effort to establish a firearm injury research agenda in Canada.

Top Research Priorities Emerging from Expert Analysis

The highest-ranked priority is quantifying the economic cost of firearm injuries to victims' families, communities, and broader Canadian society (weighted score 4.1). A 2008 Justice Canada report estimated firearm-related crime costs at over CAD 3.1 billion annually, but this excluded suicides and unintentional injuries, likely underestimating the true figure. Recent provincial data from British Columbia peg violent firearm injuries at CAD 294.4 million yearly from just 108 deaths and injuries.

• Impact of social policies and legislation on reducing IPV/femicide-related firearm injuries and deaths (score 4.0), critical given IPV accounts for 15% of firearm victimizations where women and girls are disproportionately affected.
• Description of available and required Canadian firearm-injury data, including collection barriers (score 3.8), addressing fragmented silos across health, justice, and police databases.
• Support needs for survivors and families post-injury/death (score 3.7), including mental health service utilization patterns.
• Risk factors placing individuals in high-risk situations and early IPV indicators (scores 3.7).

Other priorities include rural vs. urban impacts, safe storage barriers, social media's role in assaults, and child access protection law enforcement.Read the full study here.

University Researchers Leading the Charge

Canadian higher education institutions are at the forefront, with lead author Dr. Lotus Alphonsus affiliated with ICES and Western University, and co-authors from the University of Toronto (Temerty Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Health Policy), Dalhousie University (Community Health and Epidemiology), University of New Brunswick (Sociology), Toronto Metropolitan University (Entrepreneurship and Strategy, Community Services), University of Ottawa (Criminology), Saint Mary's University (History), and more. These academics span public health, epidemiology, sociology, and medicine, demonstrating interdisciplinary collaboration.

For aspiring researchers, opportunities abound in public health and injury prevention programs at these universities. Explore research jobs or research assistant positions to contribute to addressing these gaps. Programs like those at University of Toronto's Factor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work have produced reports highlighting racial disparities in gun violence, urging trauma-informed responses.

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Recent Trends and Statistics Shaping the Research Landscape

Firearm-related homicides increased 89% since 2013, with handguns involved in 56% of 2023 cases (289 total). Smuggled U.S. guns fuel urban violence; in Toronto, 88% of crime guns in 2024 were trafficked across the border. Rural north saw a 92% rise since 2018, contrasting urban declines in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

Such data variability highlights the need for standardized national surveillance, a key priority.Discover university opportunities across Canada.

Policy Implications and Legislative Evaluations

Priorities emphasize evaluating policies like Bill C-21, which targets handguns and assault-style firearms, amid debates on its impact on IPV and femicide. While past laws reduced long-gun homicides, recent smuggled handgun surges complicate effects. Research must assess red flag laws, storage mandates, and their IPV reductions. Experts call for linking policy changes to outcomes via linked datasets.

Challenges in Data Collection and Knowledge Gaps

Fragmented data—siloed in health, criminal justice, and police systems—impedes research. Inconsistent definitions, missing demographics, and underreported nonfatal injuries (three per death in Ontario, 2002-2016) persist. Only 34 peer-reviewed firearm studies in Canada over 18 years pre-2019 signals chronic underfunding.

• Lack of linked administrative data.
• Qualitative gaps on social determinants.
• No national registry for nonfatal injuries.

Addressing these could enable robust epidemiological modeling.

Stakeholder Perspectives: From Communities to Policymakers

Victim advocates stress post-trauma support, while rural communities highlight storage barriers. Urban gang violence demands upstream interventions. University-led forums like the 2023 CAHS event foster dialogue, aligning research with lived experiences.

Check career advice for academic researchers in public health.

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Future Outlook: Opportunities for Higher Education and Actionable Insights

Operationalizing priorities—via CIHR grants or SSHRC funding—offers avenues for postdoctoral and faculty roles. Universities can lead RCTs on interventions, economic modeling, and data infrastructures. For students, scholarships in public health align with national agendas.

Communities benefit from evidence-based programs; policymakers from cost-benefit analyses.

Call to Action for Researchers and Educators

This study galvanizes Canadian academia to fill gaps, reducing the CAD billions in societal costs. Explore professor ratings in epidemiology, higher ed jobs, or career advice. Share insights in comments below and advance safer communities.