Understanding the Paradox of Fertility Intentions in Canada

Canada is grappling with one of the lowest fertility rates in its history, hitting a record low of 1.25 children per woman in 2024. This ultra-low fertility places the country alongside nations like South Korea and Italy, raising alarms about population aging, shrinking workforces, and strained social services. Yet, a recent Statistics Canada study reveals a surprising countertrend: more young Canadians, particularly those aged 15 to 24, are expressing a strong desire to have biological children than just a few years ago. Nearly two-thirds (64%) in this group now plan to become parents, up significantly from 53% in 2021.

This disconnect between aspirations and reality highlights deeper socioeconomic pressures delaying family formation. Factors like skyrocketing housing costs, childcare shortages, and economic instability are preventing many from turning intentions into action. As Canada's population ages rapidly, understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers, families, and society at large.

Key Findings from the Statistics Canada Study

The study, titled "Making plans for the future: Canadians’ intentions to have biological children," draws from the Canadian Social Survey conducted in late 2021 and 2024. It surveyed over 18,000 respondents aged 15 to 49, focusing on plans for biological children beyond those already born. Overall, the proportion intending to have children rose from 41% to 46%, with childless respondents jumping from 52% to 58%.

Among those with plans, the average desired number of children edged up from 2.0 to 2.1. The survey excluded territories and focused on national trends, using stratified random sampling for representativeness. Confidence intervals confirmed statistically significant shifts, particularly post-pandemic.

Youth Surge: The 15-24 Age Group Leads

The most striking shift occurred among the youngest cohort. In 2024, 64% of 15- to 24-year-olds wanted at least one child, envisioning an average family size of 2.4—higher than older groups. This group is least likely to have children currently, explaining their optimism. The rise was driven by young women, whose intentions climbed from 50% to 63%, while men's held steady at around 65%.

For context, a companion Statistics Canada release on women aged 20-49 found 51.5% childless overall, with 88.5% in their 20s. Among these, 66% of 20-29-year-olds wanted children, dropping to 44.2% for 30-39 and just 13.1% for 40-49. Desired family size averaged 2.2 for those planning parenthood.

Gender, Marital Status, and Identity Differences

Women overall showed a modest increase (37% to 39%), but the youth female surge stands out. Marital status plays a key role: never-married individuals' intentions rose sharply from 48% to 56%, planning 2.3 children on average versus 1.8 for married or common-law partners. Those separated, divorced, or widowed saw a smaller uptick to 26%.

Identity factors: Non-2SLGBTQ+ respondents increased from 42% to 47%, while 2SLGBTQ+ held at 34%. A separate analysis revealed practising religious women under 40 were more likely to want children (e.g., 54.5% in 30s vs. 38.2% non-practising).

• Married women in 20s: 80.7% want children
• Common-law in 30s: 50.1% intentions
• Never in a couple: 51.7% overall

Regional Variations: Ontario and Prairies Optimistic

Provincial differences emerged clearly. Ontario saw the biggest jump (41% to 48.4%), now tying Quebec at around 47-48%. Prairie provinces rose to 42.8%, while Atlantic stayed flat at 36%, and B.C. at 43.1% but with lower desired numbers (1.9).

Urban-rural divides and economic variances likely contribute. For instance, housing pressures hit big cities hardest, potentially muting realizations despite intentions.

Photo by Tonia Kraakman on Unsplash

Socioeconomic Factors Shaping Intentions

Higher education correlates with delayed but stronger intentions. Among 30-39-year-old women, 48.6% of university graduates were childless (vs. 37% non-grads), yet 48.3% wanted children compared to 37.8%. Immigrants showed higher motherhood rates (55.4% childless vs. 52.8% Canadian-born) and stronger desires (57.2% vs. 45.7%).

Employment: Unemployed 30s women less likely childless (29.5% vs. 46.5% employed), but intentions similar. Racialized women without children were more desirous (65.9% vs. 42% non-racialized). For the full breakdown, see the StatCan Daily release.

The Barriers: Why Intentions Aren't Translating to Births

Despite rising desires, births lag. Housing affordability tops the list: 55% of 18-34-year-olds cite it as delaying families. Childcare costs and shortages exacerbate this; half of prospective parents report postponement due to these alongside living expenses.

Career demands, student debt, and job insecurity compound issues. Women delay to 30s for education and work, risking infertility. Pandemic uncertainty amplified hesitations, with 19% citing delays in 2021 surveys. Climate concerns and shifting norms also factor, though less dominantly.

• Financial stability: Top concern for Gen Z/millennials
• Housing crisis: Prevents family starts
• Childcare access: Key bottleneck
• Economic shifts: AI/automation fears

Expert Views and International Comparisons

StatCan analysts note hopefulness links to intentions: 50% of optimistic youth plan families vs. 36% pessimistic. Demographers warn of a "fertility crisis" if gaps persist, echoing global trends. Canada's 1.25 TFR trails the 2.1 replacement level, worse than U.S. (1.6) but similar to Europe's low-fertility nations.

Experts like those at IFS highlight parenting demands over pure costs. Policy responses in Quebec (subsidized daycare) boosted rates temporarily, offering lessons. For deeper analysis, review the primary research publication.

Implications for Canada's Economy and Society

Low fertility accelerates aging: fewer workers support more retirees, pressuring pensions (CPP) and healthcare. By 2075, projections show dependency ratios doubling without immigration boosts. Schools may consolidate, daycares expand prematurely.

Workforce shortages loom in care sectors. Positively, rising youth intentions could stabilize trends if barriers lift. Immigrants' higher desires (57%) aid, but integration challenges persist.

Policy Solutions and Actionable Insights

Governments eye incentives: expanded childcare (national $10/day model), housing rebates for families, parental leave enhancements, fertility treatments coverage. Quebec's approach raised TFR to 1.6 temporarily. Tax credits for children, remote work flexibility, and youth financial aid could bridge gaps.

• Prioritize affordable housing near jobs
• Subsidize childcare universally
• Support work-family balance
• Invest in fertility research/access

Individuals: Plan early, explore benefits like Canada Child Benefit. Communities foster support networks.

Photo by Logan Voss on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Hope Amid Challenges

If intentions hold, births may rebound modestly by 2030, per projections. Monitoring via ongoing CSS is key. Cultural shifts valuing family alongside careers, plus policy wins, could close the gap. Young Canadians' optimism signals resilience, but action is needed to match dreams with reality.