A groundbreaking study from the University of Auckland has revealed a compelling connection between high school mathematics performance and long-term economic success, underscoring the critical role maths skills play in shaping adult earnings and career trajectories. Led by economist Dr. Samuel Stemper from the Business School, the research demonstrates that teenagers who excel in international maths assessments not only pursue higher education but also secure better-paying jobs later in life.

This finding is particularly resonant in New Zealand, where declining proficiency in mathematics among secondary students poses challenges for university preparation and the broader STEM workforce. As universities across the country grapple with entry standards and skill gaps, the study offers timely insights into how early numeracy foundations influence university success and graduate employability.

Unpacking the University of Auckland Study

Dr. Stemper's paper, published in the Economics of Education Review in December 2025, analyzes data from cohorts of high school students who participated in both the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). These globally recognized tests evaluate adolescent skills: TIMSS focuses on curriculum-based knowledge, while PISA emphasizes real-world problem-solving.The full study links these scores to adult outcomes drawn from 18 representative global surveys, including the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), which measures numeracy, education attainment, and income levels.

The methodology is robust, comparing groups that took both TIMSS and PISA during their teenage years. Adult data tracks how initial maths proficiency correlates with later-life achievements, providing a longitudinal view across multiple countries, including New Zealand participants. Stemper notes, "Maths skills play an important role in the academic and economic trajectory of individuals throughout their lives." This global perspective highlights patterns applicable to Kiwi students entering university.

Key Findings: Maths Scores as Predictors of Success

The research establishes that higher scores in high school maths tests are strongly associated with superior adult outcomes. Cohorts with better TIMSS and PISA results exhibit stronger numeracy in adulthood, higher educational qualifications, and elevated incomes. Notably, PISA scores—testing applied problem-solving—show a stronger link to education and earnings than TIMSS scores, suggesting real-world application trumps rote memorization for lifelong gains.

• Higher maths proficiency correlates with advanced degrees and professional roles.
• Adult numeracy skills, vital for university-level STEM courses, mirror teen test performance.
• Income disparities widen for those with weaker high school maths foundations.

While exact premiums vary by country, prior NZ analysis from NZIER indicates students taking advanced high school maths earn significantly more a decade later, with bigger wage boosts for higher-level courses. Stemper warns of a divergence: TIMSS scores rising since 2000, but PISA stagnating or declining, potentially signaling eroding practical skills.

New Zealand's PISA Maths Decline: A National Concern

New Zealand's 2022 PISA maths score of 479 points edged above the OECD average of 472 but marked a sharp 15-point drop from 2018—the country's worst ever. Long-term trends show a decennial decline of 24 points, ranking among the lowest globally. Only 71% of Kiwi 15-year-olds reach Level 2 proficiency (basic interpretation of maths in simple contexts), with top performers (Levels 5-6) at 10%.OECD PISA profile for NZ

Socio-economic gaps persist: advantaged students outperform disadvantaged by 102 points. Boys edge girls by 10 points, amid broader equity issues. This slide alarms universities, as incoming students struggle with prerequisite maths for engineering, sciences, and economics—fields driving high-earning careers highlighted in Stemper's study.

University Entrance Requirements and Maths Barriers

The National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) University Entrance (UE) mandates literacy and numeracy at Level 3, equivalent to 14 credits in approved maths standards. Many degrees, like Bachelor of Engineering at the University of Auckland or Otago, require specific maths achievements (e.g., calculus). Weak high school maths leads to higher dropout risks in first-year quantitative courses.

Universities report rising numbers needing support: at the University of Canterbury, bridging maths is essential for STEM pathways. This aligns with Stemper's findings, as poor teen maths predicts lower tertiary completion and earnings.

Bridging Programmes: Universities Building Maths Foundations

NZ universities offer targeted bridging and foundation courses to address numeracy gaps, directly responding to studies like Stemper's.

• University of Otago Bridging Programme: Mathematics papers develop real-life application skills for degree entry.
• Massey University Numeracy for University Study: UniPrep short course preps undergrads for quantitative demands.
• University of Waikato Certificate of University Preparation: One-trimester maths focus meets entry requirements.
• Unitec and Open Polytechnic: Flexible online foundation maths for diverse learners.

STEM Enrolment Trends and Skills Shortages at NZ Unis

Despite demand, maths and STEM enrolments lag. Engineering New Zealand flags a 2,300-engineer shortfall annually, exacerbated by declining school tech interest. UoA's Graduate Destination Survey shows 93-97% employment for grads, with maths/computing sciences leading in roles like data analysis (median salaries NZ$70,000+ starting). Yet, STEM completion rates hover at 47%, below health fields.

Universities like Auckland and Canterbury prioritize maths in curricula, partnering with industry for applied projects enhancing employability per Stemper's PISA emphasis.

Graduate Outcomes: Maths Skills Pay Dividends

UoA maths alumni thrive: 2024 surveys report 95% postgrad employment, many in finance/tech earning premiums. Nationally, Mathematical Sciences grads dominate high-skill occupations, validating the study's income links. QS 2026 ranks Canterbury top for NZ employer outcomes, crediting strong quantitative training.

Educator and Policy Perspectives

NZ educators echo Stemper: "Focus on application, not repetition," to counter PISA declines. TEC funds STEM initiatives, but unis seek more for bridging. Policymakers eye explicit maths teaching reforms, aiming to lift school scores for better uni readiness and earnings.

Economic Implications for New Zealand

Low maths proficiency risks NZ$320,000 lifetime earnings loss per student, per analyses. Unis, producing 47% STEM grads, must amplify bridging/STEM to fuel economy amid shortages. Stemper's work urges investment in PISA-style skills for competitive graduates.

Future Strategies and University Innovations

NZ unis innovate: UoA's industry projects, VUW's data science hubs. Recommendations include expanded bridging, teacher training, AI-maths tools. By prioritizing applied maths, universities can turn Stemper's warnings into opportunities for higher adult earnings.

Photo by Matthew Stephenson on Unsplash