Unveiling the NZCER Findings on COVID-19's Educational Legacy
The New Zealand Council for Educational Research (NZCER) has released a pivotal study examining how COVID-19 disruptions affected student achievement in mathematics and reading comprehension across Aotearoa New Zealand. Titled 'COVID-19 and student achievement in Aotearoa New Zealand—Progressive Achievement Test evidence on mathematics and reading comprehension,' this report, authored by senior statistician David Coblentz, draws on over 850,000 Progressive Achievement Tests (PATs) administered between 2019 and 2023. Commissioned for the COVID-19 Lessons Learned Royal Commission, it offers a data-driven analysis of learning trajectories during and after lockdowns.
Progressive Achievement Tests are standardized assessments used by New Zealand schools to gauge student progress in core subjects. PAT Mathematics covers years 1-10, while PAT Reading Comprehension spans years 4-10, providing stanine scores (a nine-point scale where 1-3 indicates below average, 4-6 average, and 7-9 above average) that allow tracking over time. The study's difference-in-differences methodology compared Auckland—hit hardest by extended 2021 lockdowns—with the rest of the country, controlling for factors like year level, gender, ethnicity, and school Equity Index (EQI), a measure of socioeconomic disadvantage where higher EQI signals greater barriers.
COVID-19 School Disruptions: A Timeline in Aotearoa
New Zealand's elimination strategy led to multiple lockdowns, with schools closing intermittently from March 2020. The first nationwide Alert Level 4 lockdown lasted five weeks, followed by regional closures. Auckland endured 107 days of disruptions in 2021 alone, far exceeding other regions. Remote learning via platforms like Google Classroom became standard, but access inequities emerged, particularly in low-income and rural areas. Attendance plummeted to 70% nationally by mid-2021, taking nearly four years to recover to pre-pandemic levels. These interruptions tested the resilience of the education system, highlighting digital divides and teacher workload surges.
Mathematics Achievement: A Story of Recovery
PAT Mathematics scores dipped nationally in 2020 and 2021, reflecting initial disruptions, but rebounded toward pre-2019 averages by 2022. Auckland students faced an additional 2021 decline due to prolonged closures, yet most gaps closed aggregate-wide. However, persistent effects lingered in high-EQI schools and among Māori and Pasifika tamariki (children), groups already facing equity challenges. Both genders showed similar patterns, with boys and girls experiencing the Auckland-specific dip that largely resolved.
- National trend: Decline in 2020-2021, recovery by 2022.
- Auckland effect: Extra 2021 loss, partial persistence in disadvantaged deciles.
- Ethnic variances: Māori and Pasifika slower recovery.
This resilience in maths may stem from structured curricula and targeted interventions post-lockdown, such as accelerated tuition programs.
Reading Comprehension: Persistent Challenges
Unlike maths, reading comprehension exhibited a gradual multi-year decline starting in 2020, continuing without full baseline recovery by 2023. This trajectory aligns with pre-pandemic downward trends observed in PISA assessments, suggesting school closures exacerbated but did not solely cause the slide. Auckland saw a minor, temporary 2021 dip that normalized quickly. Girls experienced a slightly steeper national decline, while boys showed a more pronounced Auckland effect. Ethnic patterns varied: NZ European and Māori followed the decline, North Asian improved, and Pasifika/South Asian stayed stable.
| Group | Reading Trend |
|---|---|
| NZ European | Decline |
| Māori | Decline |
| Pasifika | Near baseline |
| North Asian | Improvement |
Regional and Socioeconomic Disparities Exposed
Auckland's extended disruptions amplified losses, particularly in high-EQI schools serving communities with higher deprivation. The Equity Index, derived from census data on income, occupation, and education, revealed how socioeconomic barriers compounded COVID effects. Low-decile schools (high EQI) struggled with device access and home learning environments, widening pre-existing gaps.Full NZCER report details these patterns.
Equity Issues: Māori and Pasifika Learners
Māori and Pasifika students, overrepresented in high-EQI settings, bore disproportionate maths impacts with slower recovery. Cultural factors, whānau (family) support, and te reo Māori immersion contexts played roles. Reading declines mirrored national trends for Māori but spared Pasifika somewhat. These findings underscore the need for culturally responsive recovery strategies, aligning with Ka Hikitia – Ka Hāpaipai framework for Māori education success.
Modest Impacts in Global Context
By international benchmarks, New Zealand's losses were mild. Global studies report 0.5-1 year equivalents in reading (e.g., World Bank), with longer-closure nations like the US losing more. Shorter NZ lockdowns (average 5-10 weeks vs. months elsewhere) and early pivot to online learning mitigated damage. PISA 2022 confirmed NZ declines but less severe than peers.RNZ coverage contextualizes this.
Pre-Pandemic Trends Complicating Attribution
Reading declines predated COVID, as PISA scores fell 2000-2022. PAT data hints at this continuation, urging caution in blaming lockdowns alone. Factors like curriculum shifts, screen time rise, and teacher shortages contributed.
Policy Implications and Recovery Strategies
The report calls for targeted maths interventions in Auckland high-EQI schools and for Māori/Pasifika. Broader reading initiatives should address systemic issues. Post-COVID efforts like the Reading Recovery framework and accelerated learning funds show promise, emphasizing small-group tuition and digital tools.
- Prioritize high-needs schools with extra funding.
- Enhance teacher professional development in literacy.
- Invest in equity-focused programs like RTLit (Response to Intervention in Literacy).
Future Outlook: Building Educational Resilience
As Aotearoa emerges, ongoing monitoring via PAT and NCEA is vital. Integrating te ao Māori perspectives and Pacific success models can close gaps. Universities training future educators must incorporate pandemic lessons into curricula, preparing teachers for hybrid disruptions. With modest losses, NZ is positioned for full recovery through collaborative policy.Royal Commission insights.