Overview of the TRENDS America Study on Trump's National Security Strategy
The TRENDS America Study, released on April 3, 2026, by TRENDS Research & Advisory's United States office, offers a nuanced analysis of President Donald Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). Authored by Bilal Y. Saab, Senior Director at TRENDS US, the study challenges the narrative of radical change in U.S. foreign policy under Trump 2.0. Instead, it highlights substantial continuity with strategies from previous administrations, attributing perceptions of disruption primarily to the document's blunt, unapologetic rhetoric.
TRENDS Research & Advisory, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, positions this study as part of its broader mission to dissect global security trends with a focus on strategic stability in the Middle East and beyond. The 29-page NSS, published in November 2025, serves as the foundational document guiding U.S. national security priorities, yet Saab's analysis reveals how its core tenets echo longstanding American approaches dating back to the Truman era.
This research is particularly timely for UAE policymakers, academics, and analysts, as it underscores enduring U.S. commitments to Gulf energy security and alliances amid shifting global dynamics. By comparing the NSS to predecessors under Bush, Obama, and Biden, the study employs a qualitative textual and historical analysis to demystify apparent shifts.
Background: The 2025 NSS in Context
The 2025 NSS marks Trump's second iteration of this congressionally mandated blueprint, following his 2017 version that emphasized great power competition. Released amid heightened U.S. debates on isolationism versus engagement, the document outlines an "America First" framework centered on pragmatism, realism, and non-interventionism. Key pillars include peace through strength, a narrowed definition of national interests, and reciprocity in alliances.
Unlike the Biden-era strategy's focus on democracy promotion and integrated deterrence, Trump's NSS prioritizes homeland defense, economic rebalancing, and regional balances of power. It critiques past "forever wars" and globalist overreach, advocating surgical diplomacy and military overmatch where vital interests demand. For the UAE, this context is crucial, as the NSS explicitly praises the Abraham Accords—brokered during Trump's first term—as a model for Middle East normalization and stability.
The strategy's release followed Trump's Gulf tour, including state visits that secured UAE support for U.S. AI and defense tech, signaling deepened bilateral ties.
Rhetoric vs. Reality: Unpacking the Continuity Thesis
Saab argues that Trump's "rude and blunt language" creates an illusion of rupture, masking policy alignments with historical precedents. For instance, "peace through strength," a cornerstone phrase, traces to Truman's 1951 strategy and Reagan's Cold War playbook, not a Trump invention.
The NSS's pragmatic ethos—pursuing national interests "without apology"—mirrors bipartisan practices, from Nixon's China opening to Obama's Saudi arms deals despite human rights rhetoric. Saab notes failures in Iraq and Afghanistan stemmed from execution flaws, not ideology, a view echoed in the NSS's aversion to nation-building.
- Blunt critiques of allies' free-riding echo Bush-era complaints on NATO burden-sharing.
- Economic focus on China aligns with Biden's de-risking, though sans military hyperbole.
- Middle East non-interventionism continues post-2011 drawdowns.
This rhetorical-policy disconnect reassures UAE stakeholders that U.S. reliability persists beneath the bluster.
Middle East Priorities: Energy Security and Partnership
The study spotlights the NSS's Middle East section, where continuity shines brightest for Gulf partners like the UAE. Objectives—preventing adversarial control of energy resources and chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz while dodging endless wars—have defined U.S. policy for eight decades.
Trump's NSS hails expanded Abraham Accords as historic, urging further normalization and Gulf investments in AI, nuclear energy, and defense. It positions the UAE as a revitalized ally post-2025 visits, emphasizing mutual tech transfers over dominance.Read the full NSS for Middle East details.
For UAE universities like Khalifa University and NYU Abu Dhabi, this signals opportunities in joint research on energy security and AI, aligning with national visions like UAE Centennial 2071.
Photo by Evgenii Vasilenko on Unsplash
| Aspect | Trump NSS 2025 | Historical Continuity |
|---|---|---|
| Energy/Chokepoints | Prevent Iran dominance | Carter Doctrine (1980) |
| Wars | Avoid forever wars | Post-Iraq drawdown |
| Accords | Expand Abraham | Trump 1.0 legacy |
China and Great Power Competition: Economic Lens
While downplaying military framing, the NSS treats China as an economic predator via IP theft and supply chains, advocating rebalancing without naming "competition." Saab critiques this omission but notes alignment with prior economic pressures.
Taiwan's status quo commitment endures, vital for Indo-Pacific stability affecting UAE trade routes. UAE's neutral China ties position it well for U.S.-brokered deals.
Alliances: Burden-Sharing and Vital Partners
The NSS deems Europe "strategically and culturally vital," pushing 5% GDP defense spends via Hague Commitment—echoing longstanding calls. Gulf allies like UAE are praised for stepping up, fostering reciprocity.
Saab refutes retreat claims, affirming U.S. global leadership sans overextension.
Implications for the UAE: Stability and Opportunities
As a TRENDS production, the study resonates in Abu Dhabi, where U.S. partnerships underpin Vision 2031. Continuity ensures sustained arms sales, tech collaborations, and Abraham Accords expansion, countering Iran.Explore TRENDS full analysis.
UAE universities can leverage this for IR programs, hosting forums on NSS impacts.
Broader Expert Perspectives and Critiques
Analysts note NSS's Monroe Corollary revival for Americas, but Middle East pragmatism aligns with UAE interests. Critiques highlight resource silence, awaiting NDS.
Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash
- Atlantic Council: Redefines ME as partnership zone.
- Al Jazeera: Downgrades ME priority, but continuity in threats.
Future Outlook: From Strategy to Implementation
The NSS guides but lacks allocation details; NDS will clarify. For UAE, expect deepened ties in energy dominance and AI. TRENDS urges vigilance on rhetoric vs. action.
Conclusion: A Pragmatic Path Forward
The TRENDS America Study illuminates enduring U.S. strategy threads, offering UAE reassurance amid flux. As Abu Dhabi's think tank, TRENDS bridges analysis and policy, fostering informed discourse in UAE academia and beyond.