US Awaits Iran's Response on Peace Deal as Ceasefire Holds Amid Oil Tanker Warnings

The Fragile Ceasefire Holding Amid Escalating Tensions

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which took effect on April 8, 2026, following intense mediation by Pakistan, continues to hold in a precarious balance. Despite recent incidents involving oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, both sides have refrained from large-scale military actions, allowing diplomatic channels to remain open. President Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the truce is intact, even as U.S. forces disabled two Iranian-flagged oil tankers on May 8 to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued stern warnings against further attacks on its commercial vessels, threatening retaliation against U.S. bases in the region. As of May 10, 2026, Iranian state media reported that Tehran has transmitted its response to the latest U.S. peace proposal through Pakistani intermediaries, marking a potential turning point after nearly three months of conflict.

This delicate pause comes after a war that erupted on February 28, 2026, triggered by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's retaliation involved missile and drone barrages on U.S. bases, Israeli cities, and Gulf allies, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil supplies. The resulting dual blockade, with Iran restricting the strait and the U.S. targeting Iranian ports, has sent shockwaves through energy markets worldwide.

Background: From Nuclear Standoff to Full-Scale War

The roots of the 2026 Iran war trace back decades to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, U.S. sanctions, and the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal under Trump's first term. Tensions boiled over in early 2026 amid reports of Iran accelerating uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels and domestic protests met with brutal crackdowns. On February 25, U.S. sanctions targeted Iran's shadow oil fleet, prompting preemptive strikes by the U.S. and Israel under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion.

These initial airstrikes demolished key sites like the Natanz nuclear facility, military bases, and government buildings, killing top officials including Khamenei, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and IRGC commanders. Iran responded with Operation True Promise IV, launching over 1,700 missiles and 3,900 drones at targets across Israel, U.S. bases in Qatar and Bahrain, and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Hezbollah escalated into a parallel Lebanon war, while Houthis in Yemen threatened Red Sea shipping. By early April, casualties mounted: estimates place Iranian deaths at 3,500 to 6,000, with thousands wounded, alongside hundreds in Lebanon and dozens among U.S. and Israeli forces.

The war's ferocity prompted urgent diplomacy. Pakistan, leveraging its ties with both nations and support from China, brokered a two-week ceasefire on April 7, extended amid failed direct talks in Islamabad. Key terms included halting hostilities, partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a framework for negotiations on nuclear issues, sanctions, and regional security.

Recent Flashpoints: Oil Tankers and Blockade Clashes

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the conflict's flashpoint. Iran closed it immediately after the war's onset, mining approaches and charging exorbitant tolls—over $1 million per ship—allowing only limited dry cargo passage. No oil or gas tankers transited initially, stranding exports and spiking Brent crude above $120 per barrel.

On April 13, the U.S. imposed a counter-blockade, turning back over 70 tankers carrying 166 million barrels and seizing vessels like the Iranian cargo ship Touska. Tensions peaked on May 8 when U.S. fighter jets disabled two empty Iranian-flagged tankers attempting to dock at Bandar Abbas, prompting IRGC vows of 'heavy assault' on U.S. assets. Iran accused Washington of ceasefire violations to coerce concessions, while the U.S. Central Command framed the actions as defensive enforcement. A Qatari LNG tanker crossed on May 10, signaling selective openings amid mediation.

These incidents underscore the high stakes: the strait handles 21 million barrels daily in peacetime, and disruptions have caused U.S. gas prices to exceed $4 per gallon, fueling inflation and recession fears globally.

Unpacking the U.S. Peace Proposal

The latest U.S. proposal, a concise one-page memorandum delivered via Pakistan, outlines a two-phase approach. Phase one formalizes the ceasefire's end to active hostilities, lifts select sanctions, releases frozen Iranian assets worth billions, and mandates reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Phase two launches comprehensive talks on Iran's nuclear program, requiring a 12-year halt to uranium enrichment, no pursuit of nuclear weapons, and IAEA-monitored curbs—sidestepping immediate demands on ballistic missiles or proxy support like Hezbollah and Houthis.

Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner led drafting, with Trump pausing Operation Project Freedom—a naval escort mission for commercial ships—on May 6, citing progress. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu insists on full uranium stockpile removal, complicating alignment. The deal echoes earlier 15-point U.S. demands from March but softens for momentum.

Photo by Mohammad Mardani on Unsplash

Iran's Counterposition and Newly Transmitted Response

Iran views the U.S. plan as a 'wish list,' prioritizing war termination without nuclear preconditions. Tehran's 10-point counterproposal demands cessation of hostilities across fronts (Iran, Lebanon, Yemen), full sanctions relief, war reparations, asset releases, Hormuz navigation protocols under its oversight, and no-nuclear-weapons commitment only post-resolution. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, injured early but recovering, oversees reviews.

On May 10, Iran's IRNA announced transmission of its response, details undisclosed but likely reiterating phased negotiations: immediate truce and strait access first, nuclear discussions later with rights to low-level enrichment preserved under NPT. Iranian officials mock U.S. pressure tactics, vowing resilience against blockades, which a CIA assessment predicts Iran can endure for months.

Al Jazeera reports highlight sticking points like uranium stockpiles over 400kg near-weapons grade.

Economic Ripples: Oil Shock and Global Fallout

The war's blockade has triggered a severe energy crisis. Pre-conflict, the strait facilitated 20% of global oil and significant LNG; now, stalled tankers have inflated prices, denting economies. U.S. costs exceed $72 billion, Israel's $11 billion, Iran's GDP shrunk 10% with $40-50 billion losses. Factories idle from high energy costs, consumers cut spending amid soaring fuel.

• Brent crude surpassed $120/barrel, 4-year high.
• U.S. inflation accelerated; gas at $4+/gallon prompts driving reductions.
• Gulf allies like UAE, Saudi face infrastructure hits, power blackouts in Pakistan from halted imports.
• Global recession risks if prolonged, per IMF warnings.

Reopening the strait could stabilize markets, but dual blockades persist.

Stakeholder Perspectives: Trump, Tehran, and Regional Players

Trump portrays optimism, expecting Iran's reply 'very soon' and threatening infrastructure strikes absent a deal. Netanyahu demands total nuclear dismantlement; Gulf states like Bahrain (arresting 41 IRGC-linked suspects) and UAE urge unconditional strait freedom post-strikes on their soil.

Iran's interim leadership under President Pezeshkian emphasizes sovereignty, rejecting 'surrender.' Proxies like Hezbollah's Naim Qassem tie fronts together. Mediators Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif and China push diplomacy; Russia, Saudi call for sustainable pacts. Europe deploys warships for post-truce security.

Wikipedia details mediation timeline.

Risks of Breakdown and Path to Lasting Peace

If talks falter, escalation looms: IRGC reprisals, U.S. bombings resumption, proxy surges. Dual blockades could persist, exacerbating crises. Success hinges on compromises—U.S. flexibility on nukes, Iran's concessions on strait control.

Optimists note momentum: Iran's response sent, tanker crossings, paused operations. A full deal could reshape Middle East, curbing nukes, easing sanctions, stabilizing energy.

Photo by Morteza F.Shojaei on Unsplash

Global Implications and Future Outlook

Beyond economics, the war displaced 1.2 million in Lebanon, damaged heritage like Tehran's Golestan Palace. Long-term: nuclear non-proliferation tests, U.S. credibility, Iran's regime stability. With Iran's reply in, next days critical—extension to 45-day talks possible, per early drafts. World watches as peace hangs on Hormuz threads.