Key Findings from the ORF Middle East Report

The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) Middle East's latest report, titled The Emerging 'Hybrid Professional': GenAI's Impact on Skill Demand Changes in the UAE, published on January 12, 2026, dives deep into how Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) is reshaping the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) labor market. By analyzing over 23,000 job postings across various sectors, the study highlights occupational polarization, where routine administrative tasks face high automation risks, while complex, creative roles demanding human oversight are on the rise. This shift is particularly critical for Emiratisation, the UAE government's policy aimed at increasing the employment of Emirati nationals in the private sector to reduce reliance on expatriate labor.

Emiratisation, formally known as the Emiratisation program, has been a cornerstone of UAE's national agenda since the early 1990s. It sets quotas for private companies to hire a percentage of UAE nationals, with recent targets pushing for 10% Emirati workforce in certain sectors by 2026. The report warns that without adaptation, GenAI could exacerbate challenges in placing Emiratis into sustainable roles, as many entry-level clerical jobs—traditionally entry points for nationals—are prime targets for AI automation.

One standout insight is the emergence of 'hybrid professionals,' workers who blend technical GenAI proficiency with domain-specific expertise. For instance, in finance, roles like AI-augmented financial analysts are surging, requiring skills in both data interpretation and prompt engineering for tools like large language models (LLMs). The analysis shows that tasks exposed to GenAI vary little by geography within the UAE; whether in Dubai's bustling tech hubs or Abu Dhabi's government-linked enterprises, the risk profile is task-driven, not location-based.

Occupational Polarization and Automation Risks

The report employs a task-level granularity to assess GenAI exposure, categorizing jobs into high, medium, and low risk. Routine tasks such as data entry, basic reporting, and scheduling—common in administrative support—score high on automation potential, with up to 40% exposure in some clerical roles. Conversely, strategic decision-making and client-facing interactions remain resilient, demanding irreplaceable human elements like empathy and cultural nuance.

Polarization means mid-skill jobs are hollowing out, pushing workers toward either low-skill manual roles or high-skill hybrid positions. In the UAE context, this amplifies Emiratisation pressures, as private firms historically place Emiratis in administrative functions to meet quotas. The study cites that 25% of current Emirati private-sector jobs could see significant disruption by 2030 if upskilling lags.

Methodology: Data-Driven Insights from Job Postings

Researchers Ahmed Dawoud and Ahmed Wael Ahmed Habashy scraped and analyzed 23,000+ job ads from platforms like LinkedIn and Bayt.com, focusing on UAE-specific postings from 2024-2025. They used natural language processing (NLP) to map tasks to GenAI capabilities, drawing on global benchmarks like those from OpenAI's task exposure models but localizing for UAE's expatriate-heavy (over 80% of workforce) economy. This bottom-up approach reveals nuances missed by occupation-level studies, such as how GenAI boosts productivity in engineering by 20-30% for routine simulations.

• Task categorization: Routine (automatable), analytical (augmentable), creative (human-led).
• Sector focus: Finance, IT, oil & gas, hospitality—key to UAE's diversified economy.
• Geographic consistency: Dubai and Abu Dhabi show aligned patterns, underscoring national policy relevance.

Implications for Emiratisation Policy

Emiratisation has seen progress, with PwC's 2024 survey (in partnership with the Ministry of Human Resources & Emiratisation, MoHRE) reporting growing interest among young Emiratis in private-sector jobs, up from previous years. However, the ORF report urges a strategic pivot: shift nationals from vulnerable clerical roles to 'hybrid' positions. Current quotas, while effective for volume, overlook quality and sustainability amid AI disruption.

For example, the UAE's NAFIS program, launched in 2021, offers incentives like wage support for Emirati hires, but the report recommends integrating GenAI literacy mandates. By 2026, MoHRE targets could evolve to prioritize hybrid skills, aligning with Abu Dhabi Vision 2030's goal to replace 70% of imported high-skilled labor with locals through targeted training.

Stakeholder perspectives vary. Employers, per PwC data, cite skill gaps as a barrier, while Emirati job seekers express preference for stable, high-paying roles. The report advocates public-private partnerships, like those in the UAE's AI Strategy 2031, to bridge this.

Case Studies: Real-World UAE Examples

In Dubai's financial sector, firms like Emirates NBD have piloted GenAI for compliance checks, reducing manual review time by 35% and creating demand for hybrid compliance officers. Similarly, ADNOC in Abu Dhabi uses GenAI for predictive maintenance, upskilling Emirati engineers in AI oversight— a model for Emiratisation success.

Another case: Hospitality giants like Emaar are automating reservation systems, but hybrid roles in personalized guest experience (using GenAI for sentiment analysis) are booming, offering pathways for Emirati youth.

Shifting Skill Demands in the UAE Labor Market

GenAI, shorthand for Generative Artificial Intelligence—systems like GPT models that create text, code, or images from prompts—is accelerating skill evolution. The report identifies top rising skills: prompt engineering, AI ethics, data augmentation, and sector-specific integration. Declining: pure data processing and basic coding.

Statistics underscore urgency: UAE AI specialists grew 40% since 2022, per industry reports, yet Emirati representation lags. Hybrid roles command 20-50% higher salaries, incentivizing upskilling. For higher education, this ties to programs embedding AI, as seen in UAE's push toward Strategy 2031.

This table, derived from report data, illustrates polarization.

Institutions preparing students for these shifts can explore higher ed career advice resources.

Challenges and Barriers

Key hurdles include digital literacy gaps among Emiratis, cultural preferences for government jobs, and expatriate competition. Women, comprising 70% of UAE university graduates, face additional mobility issues but excel in hybrid roles per PwC surveys.

Policy Recommendations and Solutions

The ORF authors propose a multi-pronged approach:

• Mandate GenAI training in Emiratisation programs, partnering with platforms like Coursera or local hubs.
• Incentivize hybrid role creation via tax breaks for firms hitting advanced quotas.
• Launch national 'Hybrid Professional' certification, aligned with UAE AI Council initiatives.
• Monitor via MoHRE dashboards tracking AI exposure in quota jobs.

These build on successes like free ChatGPT access for residents, potentially boosting GDP via productivity gains.

Expert Opinions and Broader Context

Posts on X from ORF Middle East emphasize that AI's job impact is task-specific, not uniform. UAE leaders like those behind G42-Microsoft deals position the nation as an AI hub, attracting talent while localizing skills. CSIS notes UAE's ambitions balance global diffusion with leadership.

Future Outlook for UAE Workforce

By 2030, the report forecasts 30% of UAE jobs augmented by GenAI, creating 100,000+ hybrid opportunities if policies adapt. Optimism stems from UAE's agility: investments in clean energy, tourism, and tech diversification buffer risks. For Emiratis, this means a future-proof career path via continuous learning.

Actionable insights for job seekers: Build portfolios showcasing GenAI projects; target sectors like fintech. Employers: Audit tasks for AI fit, prioritize upskilling. Check UAE academic jobs for skill-aligned roles.

Global Comparisons and UAE Uniqueness

Unlike uniform Western markets, UAE's expat-national divide demands tailored models. Singapore's SkillsFuture offers a blueprint, but UAE's oil wealth enables bolder investments.

Photo by Alex Block on Unsplash

Conclusion: Seizing the Hybrid Opportunity

The ORF report isn't a doomsday prediction but a roadmap. By embracing hybrid skills, UAE can supercharge Emiratisation, fostering inclusive growth. Stakeholders must act swiftly—visit higher-ed-jobs, university-jobs, higher-ed-career-advice, rate-my-professor, and post-a-job to navigate this era.