What triggered the 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade?

US-Israeli strikes on Iran Feb 28 killed Khamenei, prompting IRGC closure March 1. Dual blockade persists, stranding 2000 ships.

How dependent is Japan on Middle East oil?

95% of crude from ME, 70-90% via Hormuz. LNG 11% affected less severely.

Details on the Russian oil shipment to Japan?

Taiyo Oil's Sakhalin Blend via Voyager tanker to Ehime May 3-4. Sakhalin-2: Gazprom-led, Japanese stakes.

Why is Sakhalin-2 exempt from sanctions?

US waiver to June 2026 recognizes Mitsui/Mitsubishi equity. First crude since 2022 suspension.

Japan's strategic reserve response?

80M barrels released (45 days), plus industry 70 days. Largest ever drawdown.

Economic fallout for Japan?

GDP -0.18%, inflation +0.31%; oil $126 peak. Industries cut output.

Global oil market disruption?

20M bpd blocked; prices +50%; IEA 400M barrel release.

Japan's diversification moves?

US shale, ship-to-ship Oman, Australia. Renewables/nuclear acceleration.

Diplomatic efforts by Japan?

PM Takaichi calls Iran; joins Europe for security. Subsidies cap consumer prices.

Future risks if blockade continues?

Summer demand peak; waiver expiry June; $150 oil possible. Stagflation threat.

Casualties in Hormuz crisis?

12 seafarers dead; 104 Iranian sailors. Multiple sinkings/damages.

Japan Russian Oil Imports Amid Hormuz Blockade

Bright japanese signs illuminate a bustling city street at night. — Photo by Egor Myznik on Unsplash

The Arrival of the Voyager: Japan's First Russian Oil Lifeline

In a pivotal moment for Japan's energy security, the oil tanker Voyager is en route to the port of Kikuma in Ehime Prefecture, carrying a cargo of Sakhalin Blend crude from Russia's Sakhalin-2 project. Scheduled to dock around May 3 or 4, 2026, this shipment marks the first import of Russian crude oil by Japan since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively blockaded over two months ago. Wholesaler Taiyo Oil Co. secured the spot purchase, navigating a complex web of geopolitical tensions and sanctions exemptions to bolster domestic supplies.

This development underscores Japan's urgent scramble for alternatives as traditional Middle Eastern routes remain severed. The cargo, produced year-round at Sakhalin-2 since 2008, bypasses the troubled strait entirely, traveling via Pacific routes from Russia's Far East. For a nation almost entirely dependent on imported energy, this step represents both relief and a strategic pivot in the face of prolonged disruption.

Timeline of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The crisis erupted on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on Iran, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military sites. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf allies, swiftly announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling about 20% of global seaborne oil trade.

By March 1, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed the blockade, sinking a tugboat and damaging tankers, slashing daily shipping traffic from around 100 vessels to a trickle. Temporary ceasefires in early April failed, leading to a 'dual blockade': Iran's mines, drones, and tolls (over $1 million per ship for 'hostile' nations) met by U.S. naval restrictions on Iranian ports. As of early May 2026, over 2,000 ships and 20,000 mariners remain stranded, with rare exceptions for 'friendly' nations like China and Russia.

Key Escalations and Casualties

Attacks peaked in mid-March, with 16 incidents reported by UKMTO, including the grounding of the Mayuree Naree (three crew dead) and capture of vessels like Epaminondas. Casualties include 12 seafarers killed or missing, plus 104 Iranian sailors from U.S. strikes. Oil prices spiked to $126 per barrel, the sharpest monthly surge on record.

Map of Strait of Hormuz showing blockade zones and shipping routes

Japan's Acute Energy Vulnerability Exposed

Japan imports nearly all its crude oil, with 95% sourced from the Middle East—primarily Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar—in 2025. Approximately 70-90% of this volume transits the Strait of Hormuz, making the island nation one of the most exposed globally. LNG dependency is lower at 11% from the region, but the oil shock has rippled through refineries and industries.

Pre-crisis, Japan's daily crude needs hovered around 3.5-4 million barrels. The blockade stranded supplies, forcing rationing considerations and output cuts at petrochemical plants and power generators. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration has emphasized resilience, but experts warn of structural weaknesses in this resource-poor economy.

Spotlight on Sakhalin-2: A Sanctions-Exempt Haven

Sakhalin-2, operational since 2008 for oil and 2009 for LNG, is led by Gazprom (50%+ control post-Ukraine sanctions wind-downs), with Mitsui & Co. (12.5%) and Mitsubishi Corp. (10%) retaining stakes. Producing Sakhalin Blend crude, it offers Japan a rare sanctions-exempt channel. The U.S. Treasury extended waivers for oil sales through June 18, 2026, recognizing Japanese equity and energy needs.

Taiyo Oil's purchase revives a dormant trade; Japan last took Sakhalin Blend in summer 2025 after a two-year hiatus post-2022 Ukraine invasion. The Voyager's Pacific voyage avoids Hormuz risks entirely, arriving at Taiyo's Shikoku refinery to process into fuels and petrochemicals. While volume details are undisclosed, such spot cargoes typically range 500,000-1 million barrels.Mainichi reports confirm the trailblazing nature of this move.

From Suspension to Strategic Revival: Japan-Russia Oil Ties

Post-2022, Japan complied with G7 price caps and suspended most Russian crude buys, dropping imports to near-zero except Sakhalin exemptions. LNG from Sakhalin-2 continued uninterrupted, supplying ~9% of Japan's needs. The Hormuz crisis prompted a pragmatic reversal; in March, Tokyo signaled openness to Russian crude after U.S. waivers, mirroring moves by Philippines, Indonesia, and South Korea.

This isn't full resumption—spot deals only—but highlights realpolitik: energy trumps ideology amid crisis. Mitsui and Mitsubishi's stakes ensure continuity, with production stable at ~220,000 barrels/day oil equivalent.

Government Arsenal: Reserves, Diplomacy, and Subsidies

Tokyo unleashed its biggest-ever strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) release: 80 million barrels (~45 days' supply) starting March 16, plus industry stocks (70 days mandated). Total buffers exceed 250 days, buying time. PM Takaichi urged Iran for safe passage in phone talks and joined European calls for reopening. Fuel subsidies cap retail hikes, while ship-to-ship transfers (e.g., Omani oil) and U.S. cargoes fill gaps.Wikipedia timeline details diplomatic efforts.

Ripple Effects on Japan's Economy

Brent crude's surge to $126 eroded GDP by ~0.18 points per Nomura estimates, with inflation up 0.31%. Petrochemicals, autos, and manufacturing face margin squeezes; diesel for trucking hit records. Households grapple with gasoline at ¥200/liter (~$5.50/gallon). Yet, yen weakness aids importers, and SPR cushions blunt the blow. Long-term: 1-2% GDP drag if blockade persists.

Oil prices: +50% YTD, Dubai crude $166 peak.
Inflation: Core CPI +1-2 points projected.
Industries: Refineries at 80% capacity; exports vulnerable.
BOJ: Rate hikes delayed amid stagflation risks.

Global Echoes and Asian Peers

The blockade idles 20M bpd, spikes fertilizer/helium prices, and reroutes via Cape of Good Hope (+$1M/ship). OPEC+ ramps output; IEA releases 400M barrels. Asia bears brunt: Japan, SK, India scramble. Russia gains, exporting eastwards; China secures 'friendly' passages. Europe eyes rationing; U.S. shale booms.

Diversification Imperative: Beyond Crisis

Japan accelerates non-Middle East sourcing: U.S. (Bakken shale), Australia, Canada. Renewables push (30% energy by 2030), efficiency drives, and nuclear restarts gain urgency. Long-term: Floating LNG, hydrogen pilots. Risks persist—Sakhalin waiver expires June; escalation looms.Reuters notes waiver deadline.

Stakeholder Views: Pragmatism Prevails

Taiyo execs hail 'timely diversification'; METI stresses 'all options.' Critics decry Russia ties, but public prioritizes pumps. Industry lobbies for SPR extensions; env groups push green shift. PM Takaichi: 'Energy security is national security.'

Outlook: Prolonged Pain or Resolution?

Mines clearance stalls; tolls/talks falter. Summer peak demand looms; prices may hit $150. Japan eyes 10% non-ME oil by year-end. Voyager's arrival signals adaptation, but full recovery hinges on de-escalation. For now, Russian oil bridges the gap in a world redrawn by Hormuz's shadow.