Overview of Nagase's Comprehensive Analysis on 2026 University Entrance Applications

Nagase, through its Toshin educational network, has released a detailed report examining applicant numbers—or shigan-sha sū (志願者数)—for Japan's most competitive national universities in the 2026 entrance exam cycle. This analysis focuses on the top 12 difficult national universities, including the prestigious former Imperial Universities (旧帝大: Tokyo University, Kyoto University, Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, and Kyushu University), alongside Tokyo Institute of Science and Technology, Hitotsubashi University, Kobe University, Chiba University, and Hiroshima University. The report highlights a cautious shift among applicants, largely attributed to the unexpectedly challenging University Entrance Common Test held in January 2026.

The Common Test, a standardized exam required for most national university admissions, saw comprehensive average scores drop significantly—36 points lower in both humanities (to 593 points) and sciences (to 600 points) compared to the previous year. This downturn prompted many high-achieving students to adopt a 'safety-oriented' strategy, opting for slightly less competitive programs or universities rather than risking top-tier spots. Overall, general selection applicants to national and public universities totaled 419,258, a 2.2% decline from 2025.

While Japan's shrinking 18-year-old population due to low birthrates continues to pressure enrollment numbers nationwide—with projected high school graduates halving from 1992 peaks by 2040—the 2026 trends reveal nuanced dynamics at the elite level. For context, international student numbers have surged past 400,000, eight years ahead of government targets, providing some buffer but not yet offsetting domestic declines in top programs.

The Role of the Common Test in Shaping Application Strategies

The University Entrance Common Test (Daigaku Nyūshi Kyōtsū Tesuto, or 'Kyōtsu') serves as the first hurdle for general selection admissions to national universities. It covers core subjects like Japanese, math, sciences, social studies, and English, with scores influencing primary screening (dai-ichi-dan senbatsu) thresholds. In 2026, despite a record-high participation rate of 93.5%, the score slump led to widespread recalibration of ambitions.

River合塾 (Kawai Juku), another leading prep school, corroborated this in their analysis, noting top 10 difficult universities saw 55,133前期 applicants (98% of 2025), with Tokyo Science experiencing the sharpest drop at 87%. Students, facing unexpectedly low scores, prioritized programs where their performance aligned better with cutoffs, boosting mid-tier options while elites saw restraint. This mirrors mock test aspirations from August 2025, where many top universities showed rising interest (e.g., Kyoto University at 120% index vs 2016), only for actual filings to cool post-test.

Top 12 National Universities: Aggregate Shifts and Standouts

Nagase's vol.516 report compiles four-year applicant data across faculties and schedules for the top 12, revealing a predominant decline pattern. Only Osaka University bucked the trend with a 3.3% rise, reversing three years of contraction. Here's the year-over-year breakdown:

• Hiroshima University: 85.2% (-14.8% drop)
• Tokyo Science University: 87.4%
• Nagoya University: 95.4%
• Kyushu University: 95.4% (6,943 applicants)
• Hitotsubashi University: 95.8%
• Tohoku University: 96.4% (前期 4,515, -103)
• Kobe University: 97.5%
• Hokkaido University: 98.9% (9,299 total)
• Chiba University: 98.9%
• Tokyo University: 98.9% (8,329 total, record low)
• Kyoto University: 99.2% (8,015 total)
• Osaka University: 103.3% (7,335, +236)

Read Nagase's full report for faculty tables.

Photo by Tunafish on Unsplash

Spotlight on Former Imperial Universities: Mixed Fortunes Amid Caution

The seven former Imperial Universities remain the pinnacle of Japanese higher education, known for rigorous academics and strong career pipelines into government, industry, and academia. Yet 2026 saw most experience applicant dips:

• Tokyo University (Tōdai): 8,329 general applicants, lowest since 2004 corporatization. 文科一類倍率3.06x post-screening.
• Kyoto University (Kyōdai): 8,015 applicants (3.1x ratio), dropping to 7,863 after stage 1. Economic (science) at 4.2x highest.
• Tohoku University: Slight前期 decline to 4,515 despite mock increases.
• Hokkaido University: Total 9,299 (-107), but前期 up 3.7% to 5,442.
• Nagoya University: 95.4%, education/human dev sharp drop.
• Osaka University (Handai): Standout 7,335 (+236), driven by humanities surges.
• Kyushu University: 6,943 (-343).

These shifts reflect strategic pivots; for instance, Osaka's gains in 文系 faculties contrast Nagoya's losses there.Career advice for top uni grads highlights their edge in research roles.

Performance of Other Elite Nationals and Faculty Insights

Beyond the Imperial seven, peers like Tokyo Science (biggest drop, medical influence), Hitotsubashi (economics strong pre-test), and Hiroshima (steepest decline) underscore variability. Faculty trends from Nagase show persistent declines in nursing/healthcare across multiple unis (e.g., 6-year drop at Hokkaido), while economics/commerce often held steady or rose in mocks.

Health sciences lagged amid broader medical志望 drops (91 index). For research positions, these unis remain gateways.

Three-Year Historical Context: From Aspiration to Reality

Mock tests in August 2025 predicted upticks (e.g., Tohoku 4yr rise, Kyushu economics 3.6x since 2016), but Common Test reality tempered them. Osaka's reversal from 3yr decline exemplifies resilience, possibly from enhanced programs. Tokyo's record low signals peak wariness. Amid demographic headwinds, privates saw surges (e.g., Tokyo Sci private counterpart up), diverting talent.

Photo by Gavin Li on Unsplash

Implications for Students, Universities, and Policymakers

For applicants, this underscores adaptive planning: monitor cutoffs post-Common Test, diversify with privates or later rounds. Universities face enrollment pressures; top nationals leverage intl quotas (e.g., Tsukuba expansions). Policymakers push reforms like AI integration and vocational alignment. Check professor ratings for insights.

Future Outlook: Navigating Declines and Opportunities

With 18-year-olds projected at ~1M by 2030 (down from 1.2M), expect intensified competition for spots, intl reliance, and private-national shifts. Positive notes: Osaka's rebound, strong econ demand. Aspiring students should leverage resources like university jobs for post-grad paths and career advice. Stay tuned for合格発表 (pass lists) in March.

For Japan-focused opportunities, explore AcademicJobs Japan.