Cyclone Gabrielle's devastating impact on New Zealand's Tairāwhiti region in February 2023 laid bare the dangers of forestry slash—branches, logs, and harvest debris left on hillsides after clear-felling pine plantations. Rivers choked with woody material, beaches piled high with logs, and homes buried under tonnes of mud and slash highlighted a crisis years in the making. This event, one of the North Island's worst natural disasters, spurred a Ministerial Inquiry and regulatory tweaks, but new academic research from Lincoln University reveals persistent vulnerabilities in forestry practices.

The cyclone, packing extreme rainfall up to 500mm in 24 hours and winds over 160km/h, triggered over 116,000 landslides in Tairāwhiti alone. Much of the mobilized debris traced back to recent harvesting on steep, erosion-prone slopes planted decades earlier under the East Coast Forestry Project following Cyclone Bola in 1988. Slash acted like a 'tsunami' of wood, damming waterways, destroying infrastructure, and claiming lives indirectly through blocked evacuations and floods. Economic losses ran into billions, with ongoing cleanup costs exceeding $20 million annually in Gisborne.

The Ministerial Inquiry: From Outrage to Optimism

In response to public fury, particularly from iwi like Ngāti Porou who saw their kaitiakitanga (guardianship) of waterways violated, the government launched the Ministerial Inquiry into Land Use (MILU) in February 2023. Led by Hekia Parata, the panel's May report, From Outrage to Optimism, pinpointed large-scale clear-felling as a primary culprit. It recommended halting wide-scale harvesting in high-risk areas, capping coupe sizes at 40 hectares, limiting catchment harvesting to 5% per year, enforcing five-year 'green-up' buffers between sites, and excluding gullies and headwaters from operations. Transition support for affected landowners and workers was urged, alongside erosion mapping for 'purple zones' of extreme risk.

The government agreed in principle but prioritized immediate cleanup ($10m fund for 70,000 tonnes of debris) and appointed advisors for consents and partnerships. Key was amending the National Environmental Standards for Commercial Forestry (NES-CF) to mandate better slash retention on slopes over 30 degrees and removal of large pieces (over 2m long, 10cm diameter).

Government Actions and NES-CF Amendments

October 2023 saw NES-CF updates: foresters must assess slash risk pre-harvest, store it in low-mobility zones, and remove oversized debris. Regional councils gained powers for stricter rules, and Gisborne District Council (GDC) introduced new consent conditions in 2025, including site-specific plans and monitoring. A Woody Debris Taskforce coordinates removal, with forestry firms contributing equipment.

Yet, no national caps on clear-cut sizes materialized—implementation relies on resource consents under the Resource Management Act (RMA). MPI's slash handbook guides practices, emphasizing erosion susceptibility bands (A low-risk to E very high). Post-Gabrielle aerial surveys flagged catchments with heavy slash loads, prompting targeted cleanups.

New Lincoln University Research: Lessons Unlearned?

Published in the New Zealand Journal of Forestry (2026) and building on a 2024 Journal of Environmental Management paper, Lincoln University's Steve Urlich (Senior Lecturer in Environmental Management) and Alex Williamson (Postgraduate Researcher) analyzed six RMA forestry consents in Tairāwhiti from the inquiry period to July 2025. Their findings are stark: clear-cutting limits were barely enforced. Only one consent partially restricted harvest area (protecting a water catchment); the other five allowed unrestricted large coupes without green-up requirements or high-risk exclusions like gullies.

Landslide mapping post-Gabrielle showed slopes harvested 3-5 years prior suffered disproportionately higher instability during the 'window of vulnerability'—the gap between felling and new tree establishment. The NES-CF exemption for leaving slash where 'unsafe or impractical' was invoked, potentially enabling risky practices. This analysis underscores regulatory gaps, with researchers calling for geospatial modeling in consents and tighter exemptions.

Stakeholder Perspectives: A Divided Landscape

Iwi and environmental groups remain incensed. Ngāti Porou leaders decried slash as a desecration of ancestral waters, demanding harvesting bans on steep land. Groups like EDS (Environmental Defence Society) label ongoing consents a 'stringent failure,' urging ETS reforms to disincentivize exotic pines on fragile soils.

The forestry sector, via NZ Forest Owners Association and Eastland Wood Council, counters that slash is multi-sourced (not just harvest debris) and they've adopted voluntary staged harvesting, debris traps, and good practice guides. Post-Gabrielle, firms aided cleanups and committed to risk assessments, arguing full bans threaten jobs and carbon goals. Industry notes radiata's fast growth suits erosion control long-term.

GDC pushes a Sustainable Land Use Plan Change (2025), integrating forestry with 'Transition Land' overlays for 100,000ha retirement to permanent vegetation. Seeking RMA exemption amid reforms, it endorses stricter consents amid rising cleanup costs ($19.9m in 2025).

Regulatory Limbo and Proposed Reforms

Current NES-CF requires slash plans for high-risk sites, but proposed 2026 rewrites—part of RMA replacement—may relax rules, allowing more slash in 'low-risk' zones and curbing council freshwater protections. Critics fear a rollback, especially as climate models predict intensified storms. GDC's 2025/26 Annual Plan prioritizes erosion mapping and farm plans alongside forestry curbs.

A 2024 study confirmed recent harvests amplify landslide risks, with slash-laden flows endangering downstream communities. Urlich's paper details consent shortcomings, advocating mandatory landslide connectivity models.

Science Behind the Risks: Landslides and Vulnerability Windows

Post-Gabrielle LiDAR mapped 116,000+ slides, linking 3-5 year post-harvest slopes to peak vulnerability—roots decay before seedlings anchor soil. Gullies and headwaters, natural debris chutes, amplify flows. Research shows contiguous clear-fells (hundreds of ha) create 'slash tsunamis' far worse than selective logging.

Historical context: 1980s ECFP planted pines on Bola-eroded land for stability, but short rotations (25-30yrs) and clear-felling perpetuate cycles. Climate change exacerbates: NIWA projects 20-50% more extreme rain by 2100.

Tairāwhiti's Path Forward: Transitions and Challenges

GDC's vision retires 100,000ha to natives, boosting biodiversity credits and tourism while sustaining jobs via processing and alternatives like carbon farming. Just Transition needs $359m govt buy-in, per cross-sector calls. Iwi-led whenua Māori projects via East Coast Exchange test high-value models.

Challenges persist: ETS favors exotics, legacy forests mature, and global timber demand pressures. Success stories include voluntary retirements and debris-to-biomass markets.

Implications for New Zealand Forestry Nationwide

Tairāwhiti's plight mirrors risks elsewhere—Hawke's Bay, Waikato. National standards must evolve: integrate science into ETS, fund transitions, enforce consents. Lincoln's work spotlights env mgmt's role in policy, urging interdisciplinary research.

As storms intensify, proactive slash risk mgmt—via tech like drone monitoring and AI modeling—offers hope. Balancing economy, environment, and equity demands collaboration.

Photo by Huzaifa Ochom on Unsplash

Outlook: Action Needed Before the Next Storm

With no major rain since 2023, complacency looms. Urlich warns Tairāwhiti remains 'one bad rainstorm away from disaster.' Policymakers must honor inquiry intent: limit clear-cuts, retire risks, support transitions. For researchers, opportunities abound in monitoring, modeling, and alternatives—vital for resilient Aotearoa. The full inquiry report outlines the roadmap, but implementation lags.