Significant Rise in Sepsis Hospital Admissions Over Two Decades: University of Otago Research

Understanding Sepsis: The Silent Killer in New Zealand Hospitals

Sepsis, formally known as Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) triggered by infection leading to organ dysfunction, represents one of the most urgent medical emergencies worldwide. In New Zealand, it manifests when the body's immune response to a bacterial, viral, or fungal infection spirals out of control, causing widespread inflammation that damages tissues and vital organs. Common entry points include urinary tract infections, pneumonia, and skin wounds, progressing rapidly if untreated. Early symptoms—fever, rapid heart rate, confusion—can mimic flu, delaying recognition. Globally, the World Health Organization estimates sepsis contributes to nearly 11 million deaths annually, underscoring its status as a public health crisis. In Aotearoa New Zealand, recent University of Otago research has illuminated alarming local trends, prompting urgent calls for action.

University of Otago's Landmark Epidemiological Study

Researchers from the University of Otago, Wellington campus—Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka ki Pōneke—have delivered the first comprehensive, long-term analysis of sepsis-associated hospitalisations (SAH) across all public hospitals in New Zealand. Led by Sharla McTavish, a Tangata Tiriti PhD candidate in the Department of Public Health, alongside Professor Michael Baker, the study titled "Temporal trends in sepsis hospitalisations and mortality in Aotearoa New Zealand, 2000–2019" was published in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific on December 10, 2025. Drawing from the National Minimum Dataset (NMDS), it examined over 266,105 unique cases using ICD-10-AM codes for explicit sepsis and implicit infection-plus-organ-dysfunction definitions. This population-based retrospective design provides robust insights, filtering duplicates, transfers, and readmissions for accuracy, age-standardised to the 2018 Census population.

The study's rigor highlights the University of Otago's pivotal role in New Zealand's public health research landscape, particularly in epidemiology and health inequities, informing policy at Te Whatu Ora (Health New Zealand).

Dramatic 78% Surge in Sepsis Hospital Admissions

From 2000 to 2019, sepsis hospital admissions in New Zealand skyrocketed by 78%, with crude numbers climbing from 7,707 to 19,428 annually. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) rose from 217.3 to 386.9 per 100,000 population—an average annual increase of 4.5%. This equates to roughly 260,000 hospitalisations over two decades, straining resources as one in five cases requires intensive care. Peak admissions occurred among infants under one year and adults over 70, reflecting vulnerability at life's extremes. Women comprised 53.5% of cases, though rates equalised in older age groups. These trends, visualised in the study's figures, reveal a steady escalation, outpacing population growth and underscoring sepsis as a growing epidemic.

Demographic Vulnerabilities: Infants, Elderly, and High-Risk Groups

The Otago analysis pinpoints clear demographic hotspots. Infants (<1 year) exhibited the highest ASIR at over 1,000 per 100,000 in later years, likely due to immature immune systems and infections like group B streptococcus. Elderly patients ≥70 years followed, with rates exceeding 2,000 per 100,000 by 2019, driven by multimorbidity. Over 50% of cases involved those ≥70, emphasising geriatrics' burden. Gender parity emerged post-40 years, but overall female predominance persisted. These patterns align with global data, yet New Zealand's unique demographics amplify the challenge amid an ageing population projected to see 25% over 65 by 2043.

Declining Mortality Amid Rising Incidence

While admissions surged, positive shifts occurred in outcomes. Age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) dipped from 37.1 to 31.3 per 100,000—a 9.7% decline—despite stable crude deaths (~1,200–1,500/year). Case fatality risk (CFR) halved from 15.9% to 8.1%, largely in ≥40-year-olds, reflecting advances in resuscitation, antibiotics, and ICU care. Sepsis accounted for 27,402 deaths (4.6% of total mortality), four times motor vehicle fatalities, yet survival gains—especially over 70s—signal progress. However, only half of patients receive the 'golden hour' treatment, below global benchmarks.

Photo by Andrew Yu on Unsplash

Factors Driving the Rise: Ageing, Chronic Disease, and Diagnosis

Several drivers explain the ascent. New Zealand's ageing populace—median age rising from 35.4 (2001) to 38.1 (2018)—heightens risk, as sepsis odds double every decade post-60. Chronic conditions like diabetes (prevalence up 50% since 2000) and obesity predispose via immunosuppression. Multimorbidity compounds this, with overcrowded households exacerbating transmission. Improved ICD coding and diagnostic awareness likely inflate figures, mirroring international patterns where explicit sepsis codes quadrupled post-2000. Professor Baker notes these interplay with social determinants, urging multifaceted prevention.

Persistent Inequities: Māori and Pacific Peoples Bear the Brunt

Equity gaps persist starkly. Māori faced 1.7 times higher ASIR (546.1 vs. 337.2 per 100,000 for non-Māori/Pacific/Asian, NMPA) and 1.6 times ASMR; Pacific peoples 2.3 times ASIR (765.6) and 1.7 times ASMR. High-deprivation quintile (NZDep Q5) showed 2 times higher ASIR/ASMR than Q1. These disparities endured across periods, rooted in colonisation legacies, poverty, overcrowding (Māori/Pacific homes 2-3x average occupancy), and access barriers. McTavish stresses intersectionality: chronic disease plus deprivation multiplies risk, demanding targeted interventions.Public Health Communication Centre briefing echoes this, advocating culturally responsive strategies.

Burden on New Zealand's Healthcare: Economic and System Strain

Sepsis exacts heavy toll: 260,000 admissions, 27,400 deaths, ICU overload (20% cases), prolonged stays (median 5-7 days), and ACC costs from post-sepsis disability. Economic returns from early intervention—reduced ICU days, shorter admissions—could save millions, per Sepsis Trust NZ. Te Whatu Ora faces pressures amid workforce shortages, with e-vitals and antimicrobial guidelines emerging responses. Yet, only 50% meet 3-hour treatment, risking lives and escalating costs. University research like Otago's equips policymakers with data for resource allocation.

Calls for a National Sepsis Action Plan

Stakeholders unite: Sepsis Trust NZ's Ally Hossain and Dr Paul Huggan demand a comprehensive plan mirroring Australia/UK—prevention (vaccines, hygiene), early detection tools, antibiotics stewardship, surveillance, survivor support (12-month post-discharge). Health Minister Simeon Brown referred to Te Whatu Ora; Dr Sarah Jackson affirms ongoing consideration, e-learning, pathways. WHO's 2030 target looms; NZ lags peers. Otago's evidence bolsters case: preventable deaths warrant priority.University of Otago news release

University of Otago's Leadership in Public Health Research

The University of Otago exemplifies New Zealand's higher education prowess in health sciences. Wellington campus's Department of Public Health, with experts like Baker (infectious diseases authority), drives equity-focused epidemiology. McTavish's PhD work exemplifies training next-gen researchers. Otago's contributions—Legionnaires' studies, ICU disparities—position it centrally in One Health Aotearoa. Amid funding challenges, such output underscores universities' role in evidence-based policy, from COVID to sepsis.

Photo by Uran Wang on Unsplash

Global Comparisons and Lessons for Aotearoa

New Zealand's 78% rise parallels US (53% 2000-2008), Australia (ICU sepsis up 11%), driven by demographics/coding. Yet CFR decline beats some (US 18-29%), crediting bundles like Surviving Sepsis Campaign. Inequities mirror Indigenous disparities globally (e.g., Aboriginal Australians 2-3x rates). Adopting UK's national plan—reducing mortality 20%—could yield similar gains. Otago study fills Pacific data gap, aiding WHO targets.Full Lancet paper

Prevention Strategies and Future Outlook

Actionable steps: vaccinate (pneumococcal, meningococcal), manage chronic disease, reduce overcrowding via housing, educate on symptoms (Sepsis Six: oxygen, fluids, antibiotics within hour). Survivor rehab addresses PTSD (30-50% post-sepsis). With projections—diabetes doubling by 2030—proactive surveillance essential. Otago researchers advocate integrated approach; universities like Otago will lead monitoring. Optimism tempers urgency: survival gains prove interventions work, but equity demands resolve.