New Tree Cover Study Quantifies Impact of Tree Planting Programs in India

India's Push for Greater Tree Cover Amid Climate Goals

India has set ambitious targets to expand its forest and tree cover as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The country aims to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through tree plantation by 2030. According to the India State of Forest Report (ISFR) 2023 by the Forest Survey of India (FSI), the total forest and tree cover stands at 25.17% of the geographical area, marking an increase of 1,445 square kilometers since 2021. This progress includes 21.76% forest cover and 3.41% tree cover outside recorded forest areas, highlighting the role of agroforestry and plantations on farmlands and non-forest lands.

Tree cover outside forests is crucial because forests alone cannot meet the targets. Agricultural lands, which span vast regions, offer significant potential for scattered trees that enhance biodiversity, soil health, and carbon sequestration without competing with food production. Government programs channel billions of rupees into afforestation, but their effectiveness varies widely, as revealed by recent academic research.

Overview of Key Tree Planting Initiatives

India runs multiple schemes to boost tree cover. The Green India Mission (GIM), part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change, targets restoring 5 million hectares of degraded forests and expanding green cover on another 5 million hectares. Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority (CAMPA) uses funds from diverted forest lands for compensatory planting. The Sub-Mission on Agroforestry (SMAF) under the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture promotes trees on farmlands. Other efforts include the National Afforestation Programme (NAP), Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), and Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA) tree components.

• GIM: Focuses on ecological restoration and community participation.
• CAMPA: Manages over Rs 47,000 crore in funds but faces criticism for misuse and poor survival rates.
• SMAF: Performance-linked funding with state action plans for agroforestry.

These programs disbursed substantial funds from 2013-2019, yet satellite data shows mixed outcomes in tree cover gains.

The Landmark Dartmouth Study: Methods and Approach

A groundbreaking study published in Environmental Research Communications titled "Variable linkages between afforestation programs and tree cover outside of forests in India" provides the first comprehensive quantification using satellite remote sensing. Led by Spriha Pandey from Dartmouth College, with co-authors Pooja Choksi, Forrest Fleischman from the University of Minnesota, and Richard B. Howarth from Dartmouth, the research analyzed funding data for eight major programs from 2013-2019 against tree cover changes from 2017-2023, incorporating a four-year lag for sapling maturity.

Researchers used three datasets: high-resolution for scattered farm trees, medium for larger patches, and coarse for broad trends. This multi-scale approach captured trees outside forests effectively. By correlating district-level expenditures with tree cover changes, they isolated program associations while controlling for baselines.Read the full study

Key Findings: Success of Sub-Mission on Agroforestry

The study highlights SMAF as a standout success. Every additional rupee spent above the mean expenditure correlated with a 114.14 square meter increase in tree cover outside forests across all datasets. SMAF's structure—requiring state agroforestry action plans and performance-linked disbursements—ensures targeted implementation on farmlands, aligning with local needs.

"As India tries to leverage policies... it is important to measure their efficacy," notes lead author Spriha Pandey. Since 2016, SMAF has covered over 1.21 lakh hectares, promoting species like mango, neem, and bamboo that support farmer livelihoods.

This success underscores agroforestry's potential: integrating trees with crops improves soil fertility, reduces erosion, and provides additional income from fruits, timber, and fodder.

Photo by Ranjini Hemanth on Unsplash

Disappointing Results from Other Programs

Contrasting SMAF, most programs showed negligible or negative associations. RKVY linked to small tree cover decreases. NAP, GIM, and CAMPA expenditures correlated with losses, possibly due to poor site selection, low survival rates, or monoculture plantations displacing native vegetation.

CAMPA faces particular scrutiny: funds often unutilized or misused, with plantations on unsuitable lands leading to high mortality. Critics argue it greenwashes deforestation without ecological restoration. GIM, despite community focus, struggles with implementation gaps.

Regional Variations and Earlier Research

Impacts varied by district: agroforestry-friendly regions like Punjab and Uttar Pradesh saw gains, while hilly or arid areas lagged. This echoes earlier studies, like Coleman et al. (2021) in Himachal Pradesh, finding decades of planting yielded little canopy increase due to grazing and poor maintenance.

FSI reports overall gains, but independent satellite analyses reveal farmland tree declines, threatening climate resilience. Indian institutions like IISc Bangalore and IITs contribute via remote sensing for forest monitoring.

Challenges Facing Tree Planting Efforts

Key hurdles include data gaps—state-level funding hides local failures—low sapling survival (often <30%), monocultures harming biodiversity, and competing land uses. Climate change exacerbates droughts, while community buy-in varies. Fleischman emphasizes: "Lack of fine-scale data prevents causal analyses."

• Site suitability assessment
• Species selection for local ecology
• Monitoring and maintenance
• Integration with livelihoods

Implications for Policy and Carbon Goals

The study urges scaling SMAF-like models: performance-based funding, farmer incentives, and hybrid monitoring (satellite + field). To meet NDCs, prioritize trees outside forests via agroforestry. Policymakers should audit underperformers like CAMPA for better allocation. Enhanced tree cover could sequester millions of tonnes CO2, bolster resilience against monsoons and heatwaves.

For higher education, such research highlights opportunities in environmental science. Universities like Dartmouth train analysts using GIS and AI on satellite data. In India, explore research jobs at IISERs or IITs advancing satellite forestry.

Photo by Boudhayan Bardhan on Unsplash

Role of Universities in Environmental Research

Academic institutions drive these insights. Dartmouth's ENVS program enabled Pandey's thesis publication, showcasing undergrad research impact. Indian universities, via collaborations, analyze ISRO satellite data for FSI. Programs in geospatial tech prepare students for policy roles. Check career advice for env researchers.

Future Outlook and Actionable Insights

Prospects: AI-enhanced satellite monitoring, community-led planting, and policy reforms. Blend natural regeneration with targeted planting for biodiversity. Students and researchers can contribute via field studies or data modeling.

Explore higher ed opportunities in India or global research positions. For career growth, visit Rate My Professor and Higher Ed Jobs.