Chris Millward's Call for Rigorous Yet Nuanced Student Success Regulation

The Office for Students (OfS), the independent regulator for higher education in England, has emphasized the need for a 'hard-headed' approach to evaluating student success. This statement comes from Chris Millward, the OfS's interim Director of Fair Access and Participation, during a recent event hosted by the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) in Westminster. Millward highlighted that while higher education remains resilient, it faces unprecedented scrutiny over its value, quality, and post-graduation outcomes. To maintain public confidence and secure ongoing public funding, regulators must enforce common expectations across providers, but with an enlightened perspective that accounts for the sector's diversity.

Millward noted that sustaining trust in universities is vital for advancing widening access initiatives, where more students from underrepresented backgrounds enter higher education. He stressed, 'It requires regulation that’s pretty hard-headed about common expectations across the sector if you want to get public funding, but also an enlightened approach beyond that to reflect the diversity of the sector.' This balance is crucial as enrollment patterns shift and new policies like the Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE) introduce flexible study modes.

Understanding the OfS and Its Role in Overseeing Student Outcomes

The Office for Students (OfS), established in 2018, regulates universities and colleges in England to ensure they deliver successful outcomes for students. Its regulatory framework includes three key conditions on student outcomes, known as B3 numerical baselines: continuation (percentage of students continuing into their second year), completion (percentage completing their course), and progression (percentage entering graduate-level employment or further study within 15 months of graduation). Providers below these absolute baselines—such as 74.4% continuation for full-time undergraduates in recent data—risk enforcement action, including fines or deregistration.

These metrics form the backbone of OfS accountability, drawing from data submitted via the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). For instance, the latest TEF data dashboards, updated in February 2026, provide provider-level insights into these measures, helping students choose courses with strong outcomes. The OfS uses this data not just for regulation but to drive improvement, publishing Excel workbooks and CSVs for transparency.

Growing Scrutiny on UK Higher Education's Value for Money

UK higher education is under intense examination amid financial pressures, declining international enrollments, and questions about the 'graduate premium'—the earnings uplift from a degree. A Times Higher Education poll revealed the public vastly overestimates graduate regret, guessing 40% would skip university if possible, though actual figures are lower. Recent HESA data shows 2.99 million HE students in 2023/24, but with a 1% drop in qualifications achieved to 1,043,665 in 2024/25.

Student loan repayment outcries have spotlighted high debt levels, while critics argue more young people attending university dilutes returns. OfS data indicates steady or declining full-time continuation rates since 2010 across demographics. This scrutiny demands robust metrics to prove taxpayer value.

Challenges in Measuring Graduate Outcomes Effectively

Graduate outcomes, tracked 15 months post-graduation via HESA's Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset, assess employment and median earnings. Universities criticize this snapshot for ignoring diverse career paths, especially in low-pay fields like arts or sciences that take longer to yield returns. Millward acknowledged, 'Different subjects... have different levels of demand... Crudely, it is harder to sustain physics, music, and midwifery... than business, law and computer science.'

• Business courses hit record lows: 80% continuation, 65% positive outcomes.
• First-class degrees fell to 29% in 2023/24 amid grade deflation efforts.
• Masters enrollments dropped 10% due to fewer overseas students.

Longer-term tracking and holistic views, including wellbeing and skills, are advocated.

The Proposed Revised Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF)

In September 2025, the OfS consulted on a revamped TEF integrating quality assessments (B1/B2) with outcomes (B3). This cyclical system rates providers on student experience (via NSS and submissions) and outcomes data, publishing gold/silver/bronze-like ratings from 2027-28. High performers face less scrutiny; laggards more intervention. OfS TEF Consultation

Decisions due spring 2026, with methodology tweaks in autumn. This aligns with Millward's vision for 'engaged and enlightened' measurement.

Reflecting Sector Diversity in Success Metrics

Millward urged metrics accommodating subject variations and new LLE modules, allowing part-time, modular study from 2025. Traditional full-time degrees differ from apprenticeships or mature learner paths. Regulators must avoid one-size-fits-all, protecting vital but costlier disciplines.

For those exploring UK university opportunities, understanding these nuances aids informed choices.

Student Voices: NUS Demands Holistic Success Definitions

Alex Stanley, NUS Vice President for Higher Education, countered at the HEPI event: 'University should be accessible to get into, enjoyable to experience, and beneficial to have graduated from.' He criticized over-reliance on outcomes surveys amid student hardships like long hours and cuts.

Students seek data-backed support, rejecting 'beating the odds' as success.

Case Studies: Providers Facing Outcome Challenges

OfS has flagged providers below B3 baselines, e.g., certain business programs with sub-65% progression. The Open University faced scrutiny for 21% completion in older cohorts. Interventions include enhanced monitoring; five providers at closure risk in 2025 due to finances impacting outcomes.

• Intervention Steps: Data review, improvement plans, potential student protection plans.
• Career advice for navigating outcomes.

Financial Pressures and Their Impact on Student Success

With 72% of institutions forecasting deficits, cost-cutting affects support services, exacerbating dropouts. International student visa curbs led to 10% masters decline. OfS strategy 2025-2030 prioritizes risk-based regulation.

Explore higher ed jobs resilient to these shifts.

Future Outlook: Towards Comprehensive, Adaptive Measures

As TEF evolves, expect integrated metrics incorporating LLE and longer-term tracking. OfS aims for continuous improvement, with decisions post-spring 2026 consultation. This 'hard-headed' stance promises accountability while fostering innovation.

For academics and administrators, check university jobs or professor salaries amid reforms.

Photo by Levi Meir Clancy on Unsplash

Implications for Students, Providers, and Policymakers

Students gain clearer quality signals; providers face incentives for excellence. Policymakers must balance funding with access. THE Coverage

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