Long range seasonal forecasting of North Atlantic cyclones

About the Project

We invite applications for a fully funded PhD studentship (3.5 years) hosted by the University of Birmingham and conducted in collaboration with the UK Met Office.

This project is ideal for candidates with a background in meteorology, climatology, physics, and any related discipline, and a strong interest in applying advanced physical and computational methods to real-world challenges in the area of hazard assessment.

North- Atlantic cyclones can cause severe damage to the neighbouring land of North America and Europe. Increasing the lead time of seasonal forecasts will allow for governments, industry, including the (re-)insurance sector, and the public to better prepare for seasons of high activity.

The project will investigate the skill of forecasting seasonal accumulated North Atlantic cyclone season properties (e.g. number, intensity) for lead times ranging from one to approximately six months in the latest generation of dynamical seasonal and decadal forecast models.

Seasonal forecasts are often issued one month in advance, but there is limited research on predictability of cyclones on lead times longer than this. This research will use the latest generation of seasonal and decadal dynamical prediction systems, focusing on the Met Office models GloSea and DePreSys, and will yield a systematic understanding of skill at longer lead times, and knowledge of when and where the forecasts are most useful.

Tropical, extra-tropical and post-tropical cyclones will be considered. To increase the usefulness of respective seasonal forecasts the project will focus also on the understanding of the underlying the physical processes leading to predictability and forecast skill of North Atlantic cyclones. The project will also explore statistical post-processing methods to see if raw forecast skill can be improved. The project will also liaise with users (e.g., (re-)insurance sector, UK Government Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO), Met Office operational warning and guidance team) to gather their needs from cyclone forecasts on this timescale, potentially leading to development of a prototype forecast.

Join our University of Birmingham Meteorology and Climate group

The studentship is embedded in our University of Birmingham group of Meteorology and Climatology. The University of Birmingham is proud to be a member of the Met Office Academic Partnership and the studentship is closely related to the current cohort of MOAP-PhD students and the wider PhD cohort in the group of meteorology and climate and the School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences.

Supervisory team:

• Dr Gregor C. Leckebusch (University of Birmingham)
  Professor of Meteorology and Climatology (UK Met Office Joint Chair); g.c.leckebusch@bham.ac.uk
• Dr Julia Lockwood (UK Met Office)

The University of Birmingham was founded in 1900 on an anti-discrimination ethos accepting men and women on an equal basis. Today, as a community of over 150 nationalities in one of the UK’s most vibrant cities, we remain committed to promoting equality, diversity and fairness irrespective of age, disability, gender, pregnancy or marital status, race, religion or belief, sexual orientation or gender identity.

Candidates should have or expect to receive a first or upper second (2.1) honours degree (or equivalent) in subject specific area like meteorology, physics, climate sciences or related subject areas.

Applications should be made through the University of Birmingham’s online application system. Further information can be obtained by emailing Dr Gregor Leckebusch (g.c.leckebusch@bham.ac.uk).

We are specifically interested in applications from applicants to be able to start as soon as possible, this academic year 2025/26.

Funding Notes

UK ("Home") students: Successful applicants will receive substantial financial support, including a stipend matched to UKRI annual rates (25/26: £20,780), fee waivers (25/26: £5,006), and project related consumables, travel and subsistence allowance.

International ("Overseas") students: Successful applicants may apply and receive funding at the equivalent rate of UK students; however the student will be responsible for payment of the outstanding fee balance.