About the Project
Background and Context
The UK housing sector is undergoing a major transformation driven by net-zero commitments, energy security concerns, and the need to improve the energy performance of an ageing housing stock. Residential buildings account for approximately 15-20% of UK carbon emissions, making housing decarbonisation a critical component of national climate policy. The government's retrofit agenda has therefore placed significant emphasis on improving insulation, airtightness, low-carbon heating systems, and…
renewable energy technologies (Arup, 2024, MHCLG, 2026).
Two major policy developments reinforce this agenda. First, the Future Homes Standard (FHS) was published on 24 March 2026 and comes into force on 24 March 2027. The standard requires new homes in England to be "zero-carbon ready," to achieve a 75-80% reduction in carbon emissions compared with 2013 standards, to utilise low-carbon heating technologies such as heat pumps, to incorporate solar photovoltaic systems, and to achieve significantly improved fabric performance. Second, the government's Warm Homes Plan represents one of the largest housing improvement programmes in UK history. The initiative commits between £13.2 billion and £15 billion of public investment to improve up to five million homes by 2030, reduce household energy bills, tackle fuel poverty, and accelerate deployment of insulation, heat pumps, solar panels, and battery storage technologies. The programme also aims to lift up to one million households out of fuel poverty while supporting wider decarbonisation objectives.
While these policies are expected to bring substantial carbon and energy benefits, an important challenge is emerging. Many retrofit interventions are designed primarily to improve winter thermal performance through increased insulation and airtightness (Taylor et. al, 2015). However, climate change is simultaneously increasing the frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves, raising concerns that energy-efficient homes may inadvertently become more vulnerable to overheating. This phenomenon has been termed the "overheating paradox" of low-carbon retrofit.
The Research Problem
Overheating is increasingly recognised as a major climate adaptation challenge. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has warned that the UK is insufficiently prepared for rising temperatures and associated health risks. Recent assessments suggest that 92% of UK homes could experience overheating by 2050 under projected climate scenarios if appropriate adaptation measures are not implemented (CCC, 2026). Furthermore, heat-related deaths, currently estimated at around 1,300-1,500 annually during extreme heat events, could increase to 3,000-10,000 deaths per year by mid-century unless action is taken.
The summer of 2025 was reported as the hottest on record in the UK, reinforcing concerns regarding future climate resilience. Simultaneously, studies commissioned by the Climate Change Committee indicate that a significant proportion of UK homes are already vulnerable to overheating (CCC,2026). Likewise, 2026 temperature figures are already surpassing historic figures. As large-scale retrofit programmes prioritise insulation and airtightness improvements, there is a risk that homes designed to retain heat during winter may struggle to dissipate heat during increasingly hot summers.
This raises a critical policy and industry question: Does upgrading existing housing for winter energy efficiency inadvertently increase overheating risk during summer, thereby creating a form of climate maladaptation?
Research Aim
This research seeks to investigate the relationship between low-carbon retrofit measures and overheating risk in existing UK homes and to develop a sustainable framework capable of delivering year-round thermal resilience.
Research Questions
The study will address the following questions:
- To what extent do fabric-first low-carbon retrofit measures increase overheating risk in existing UK residential buildings?
- How do occupants of retrofitted dwellings experience, perceive, and adapt to summer overheating conditions?
- Which passive and active interventions are most effective in mitigating overheating while maintaining low-carbon performance objectives?
- How can a sustainable retrofit framework be developed to balance carbon reduction, energy efficiency, thermal comfort, and climate adaptation requirements?
Proposed Research Approach
The project will adopt a mixed-methods methodology combining building performance analysis with occupant-centred research.
The study will involve collaboration with housing associations participating in government-funded retrofit programmes. Selected dwellings will undergo in-situ environmental monitoring, including measurements of indoor temperature, humidity, occupancy patterns, and ventilation performance. This will provide empirical evidence of thermal conditions before and after retrofit interventions.
In parallel, dynamic thermal simulation modelling using software such as IES VE or DesignBuilder will evaluate overheating risks under current and future climate scenarios. Simulations will test alternative retrofit combinations and adaptation strategies, including shading devices, natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation, heat pumps, and solar control measures.
Occupant surveys and interviews will be explored.
Expected Impact and Contribution
This research is highly aligned with current government priorities concerning both climate mitigation and adaptation. It addresses a recognised knowledge gap between carbon-reduction policies and thermal resilience outcomes. The project will generate evidence capable of informing future revisions to retrofit standards, housing policy, and building regulations.
Most importantly, the research will deliver a practical framework for housing providers, policymakers, designers, and construction professionals to ensure that the billions invested through the Warm Homes Plan contribute not only to lower carbon emissions and reduced energy bills but also to healthier, safer, and climate-resilient homes capable of meeting the challenges of a warming future.
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