Unpacking the Perfect Storm: Enrollment Declines and Financial Pressures

As higher education institutions across the United States gear up for 2026, talent acquisition teams are confronting a landscape reshaped by persistent enrollment declines and mounting financial strains. The so-called enrollment cliff, driven by a projected 13 percent drop in high school graduates from 2025 to 2041, has already triggered widespread budget cuts and hiring freezes. Public and private universities alike are feeling the pinch, with revenue shortfalls forcing leaders to rethink how they attract and retain top faculty and staff.

For context, enrollment in graduate programs stabilized somewhat in 2025, but PhD cohorts shrank due to slashed federal research funding, while new international graduate enrollments plummeted 17 percent in fall 2025. Institutions like the University of Southern California laid off over 900 employees, Stanford trimmed 363 positions, and Northwestern cut 424—about 5 percent of its workforce. These moves signal a broader trend: universities are eliminating low-enrollment programs, such as Ohio State University's cuts to eight majors and mergers of 20 others, or Oklahoma's elimination of 41 programs entirely.

Talent acquisition professionals must now prioritize roles that directly support high-demand, revenue-generating programs, leaving administrative and research positions vulnerable. This shift demands agile recruitment strategies that emphasize versatility and immediate impact, as hiring managers navigate a market where every position must justify its cost.

Hiring Freezes and Shrinking Merit Pools: The New Normal

Hiring freezes have become ubiquitous, affecting 63 percent of Ivy League and private R1 institutions, as well as numerous public university systems through fiscal year 2026. Coupled with median merit pools shrinking to about 3 percent and widespread salary caps, these constraints exacerbate talent acquisition challenges. Universities are delaying searches, converting full-time roles to part-time or adjunct positions, and relying more on internal mobility to fill gaps.

In this environment, attracting tenure-track faculty—who traditionally anchor academic departments—proves especially difficult. Prospective candidates, aware of stagnant budgets, are gravitating toward industry roles offering better compensation and stability. Recruitment timelines stretch as committees sift through smaller applicant pools, often settling for interim hires while permanent searches languish.

The ripple effects extend to staff positions in student services and operations, where turnover rates climb amid uncertainty. Forward-thinking institutions are investing in succession planning and leadership development programs to mitigate these risks, but many lag behind, amplifying the talent crunch.

The Adjunct Reliance Dilemma: Flexibility vs. Stability

One of the most pronounced shifts in higher education hiring is the heavy dependence on adjunct faculty, who now comprise approximately 40 percent of the faculty workforce—a figure stable since 2014 but increasingly problematic amid quality and equity concerns. At associate's institutions, adjuncts make up 66 percent of faculty, compared to 46 percent at private nonprofits and 37 percent at publics.

Compensation tells a stark story: the median pay per credit hour stands at $1,166, equating to $3,498 for a three-credit course or $4,998 for a typical academic term. Doctoral institutions pay slightly more at $1,265 per hour, but even full-time equivalent adjunct pay (teaching 36 credits annually) hovers around $41,976—below the U.S. median income. Benefits are scarce, with only 37 percent of institutions offering health coverage, and most adjuncts teach just one or two courses per term without pay for mentoring or curriculum development.

This model offers scheduling flexibility for variable enrollment but fosters instability: 70 percent of institutions cancel low-enrollment courses, leaving adjuncts unpaid. Women (57 percent of adjuncts vs. 44 percent tenure-track) and Black faculty (10 percent adjuncts vs. 5 percent tenure-track) are overrepresented, highlighting equity gaps. Pay disparities persist, with Black and Hispanic faculty earning 95 cents per dollar paid to White men.

Talent acquisition must balance this reliance by scouting adjuncts with industry expertise for real-world insights, while advocating for better support structures to retain them long-term. For more details on adjunct dynamics, explore the CUPA-HR Adjunct Faculty Report.

Compensation Lag: When Raises Can't Keep Pace with Inflation

Despite median pay bumps outpacing inflation in 2025-26 for most groups, higher education salaries remain below pre-pandemic levels when adjusted for rising costs. Tenure-track faculty saw the smallest increase at 1.8 percent—the lowest among categories and unchanged in real terms for a decade—leaving them 11.7 percent behind 2019-20 purchasing power. Non-tenure-track teaching faculty trail by 6.8 percent, while non-exempt staff have closed the gap to just 0.9 percent.

These trends undermine retention, as faculty eye private sector opportunities where salaries grow faster. For instance, CUPA-HR data from the 2025-26 Faculty in Higher Education Survey, covering 334,666 faculty across 795 institutions, underscores discipline-specific variances: engineering and health professions command premiums, while humanities lag.

Institutions counter with non-monetary perks like flexible work and professional development, but talent acquisition leaders stress transparent total rewards packages to compete. Check CUPA-HR's insights on workforce pay increases for benchmarks.

Skills Gaps in High-Demand Fields: AI, STEM, and Beyond

The talent acquisition spotlight shines brightest on emerging skills shortages, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), data science, cybersecurity, and healthcare education. A MIT study projects AI could displace 12 percent of the U.S. workforce, demanding faculty who blend technical prowess with human-centered teaching like critical thinking and ethics.

Universities scramble for hybrid experts: roles merging computer science with liberal arts or business. Enrollment spikes in computing (47 percent growth 2015-2020) contrast with humanities declines (35 percent for history), pushing hires toward interdisciplinary talent. Community colleges and regionals face acute shortages in vocational trades amid workforce development mandates.

• AI-savvy instructors for new programs like UW-Madison's College of Computing and AI.
• Healthcare educators amid graduate shifts to hybrid models.
• IT specialists, where demand outstrips supply per MHEC reports.

Recruitment strategies evolve to skills-based hiring, leveraging platforms for competency matching over degrees.

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Hurdles in Recruitment

Amid broader challenges, achieving diverse hires remains elusive. Adjunct overrepresentation of women and faculty of color in low-pay roles perpetuates pipelines issues for tenure-track advancement. Geopolitical tensions and visa hurdles slash international talent pools, critical for STEM.

Institutions deploy bias training and inclusive job descriptions, yet applicant diversity stalls. Stakeholder perspectives—from unions pushing non-tenure equity to administrators balancing compliance—highlight the need for holistic DEI strategies in talent acquisition.

Leveraging Technology: AI Tools Reshaping Recruitment

AI transforms talent acquisition itself: 93 percent of institutions plan expansions, with 85 percent eyeing enrollment modeling. Tools automate screening, predict candidate fit, and personalize outreach, shortening time-to-hire amid freezes.

Challenges include data security (59 percent concerned) and integrity (78 percent). Success stories: predictive analytics identifying passive candidates in niche fields. Future: human-AI hybrids for ethical, efficient hiring. See Deloitte's analysis in their 2026 Higher Education Trends.

Case Studies: Institutions Adapting to the Crisis

Real-world examples illuminate paths forward. California State University merged HR and accounting for efficiency, freeing funds for key hires. Texas community colleges boosted outcomes spending 30 percent under performance funding, prioritizing workforce-aligned faculty.

Private R1s like Columbia secured $400 million philanthropic gifts for research continuity, stabilizing hires. Public systems in Kentucky streamlined approvals for high-demand degrees, accelerating recruitment in growth areas.

Strategic Solutions: Building Resilient Talent Pipelines

To counter issues, universities adopt proactive measures:

• Early pipeline building via internships (73 percent placement rate for paid interns).
• Partnerships with industry for dual-employed PIs.
• Upskilling programs for existing staff in AI and data.
• Employer branding emphasizing mission impact over pay.

Talent acquisition evolves to strategic workforce planning, forecasting needs amid uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: A Hopeful Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

While challenges dominate, opportunities emerge in short-term credentials via Workforce Pell Grants (starting July 2026 for eight-week programs) and AI-driven personalization. Institutions demonstrating ROI—through tools like the Credential Value Index—will attract top talent.

Balanced views from leaders suggest reinvention: mergers (19 percent of presidents anticipate), program pivots, and policy advocacy. For talent seekers and acquirers, 2026 rewards adaptability, positioning higher education for sustainable growth. Explore WTW's five key trends for deeper foresight.

Photo by Sara Groblechner on Unsplash