The Wake Forest Study Linking Freezing Temperatures to Rising Domestic Abuse

In the world of economic research, few topics blend environmental challenges with social issues as compellingly as the work emerging from Wake Forest University. Associate Professor of Economics Leah K. Lakdawala has led a team that uncovered a stark connection between severe cold snaps and spikes in intimate partner violence, or IPV, in agricultural communities. Published in the Journal of Development Economics, the study titled 'Frosty climate, icy relationships: Cold and intimate partner violence in Peru' examines how extreme freezing temperatures not only destroy crops but also strain household dynamics, leading to increased abuse.

The research draws from a dramatic real-world event in December 2023, when the Peruvian Andes experienced a drought followed by sub-zero nights that wiped out potato crops—a staple for highland farmers. Families faced hunger, income loss, and forced confinement indoors, creating a perfect storm for tension. Lakdawala's findings reveal that these conditions amplify risks in homes already vulnerable to violence, offering lessons that resonate far beyond Peru's mountains.

Defining Intimate Partner Violence and Its Global Scope

Intimate partner violence encompasses physical, sexual, emotional, or controlling behaviors inflicted by a current or former partner. In Peru, surveys indicate that nearly 70% of ever-partnered women report experiencing some form of IPV in the past year, with one in five facing physical, sexual, or severe emotional abuse. This high baseline makes the country a poignant case study, but the patterns echo globally, including in the United States where millions suffer annually.

Cold weather exacerbates these issues by limiting outdoor activities and amplifying stressors. In rural areas dependent on agriculture, the loss of a harvest can plunge families into despair, turning economic hardship into interpersonal conflict. Wake Forest's analysis highlights how environmental shocks intersect with gender dynamics, where women often bear the brunt due to traditional roles in household management during crises.

Research Methodology: Marrying Weather Data with Household Surveys

To isolate cold's causal impact, the researchers leveraged data from Peru's Demographic and Health Surveys between 2010 and 2018, covering over 55,000 women. They geocoded responses to precise locations and matched them with hourly temperature records from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The key metric—cumulative degree hours, or CDH—measures exposure below harmful thresholds like -9°C, accounting for both duration and intensity of cold.

By comparing women in the same districts surveyed at different times, the team controlled for local fixed factors and trends. They further dissected effects using national household surveys to link cold shocks to agricultural revenue drops, distinguishing growing-season freezes (income hits) from off-season ones (pure confinement). This rigorous approach confirmed cold's direct role, paving the way for policy-relevant insights.

Quantitative Findings: Measuring the Chill's Toll on Relationships

The numbers paint a chilling picture. Every 10 degree hours below -9°C raises the probability of any IPV by 0.5 percentage points—equivalent to one additional woman in 200 affected by less than half a day at -10°C yearly. Physical violence sees a 0.3 percentage point jump. During crop growing seasons, the effect quadruples to 1.6 percentage points, underscoring income's dominance.

Farming households face double the risk, with cold slashing annual agricultural revenue by 1.35%. A one-standard deviation cold shock boosts IPV by 2.1%. These effects grow steeper at lower thresholds, like -12°C, emphasizing vulnerability in warming climates paradoxically producing more extremes.

The Two Channels: Cabin Fever Meets Economic Despair

Why does cold fuel violence? The study identifies dual pathways:

• Income Loss: Freezes kill crops and livestock, eroding livelihoods. This channel drives at least 75% of the IPV rise, as financial stress heightens irritability and control tactics.
• Forced Proximity: Harsh weather traps families indoors, increasing exposure to abusers. Off-season cold hints at 'cabin fever'—restlessness and anxiety—but pales against economic blows.

Back-of-the-envelope math shows income shocks explain most variance, with growing-season effects dwarfing others. This nuance informs targeted interventions, prioritizing economic buffers.

Social Safety Nets: A Buffer Against the Freeze

Hope lies in policy. Peru's Juntos program—conditional cash transfers for poor families—nearly erases cold-induced IPV where coverage is strong. These steady incomes cover food and rent, shielding against despair. In low-coverage areas, violence surges unabated.

Lakdawala emphasizes: 'Providing a steady stream of income unaffected by weather gives households a safety net.' This model, scalable globally, underscores how proactive support transforms vulnerability into resilience. For more on the study, explore the full paper.

Implications for the United States: Parallels in Rural America

Though focused on Peru, the research speaks to U.S. contexts. Rural communities in states like North Carolina, home to Wake Forest, rely on weather-sensitive farming. Financial stress from freezes or droughts predicts violence here too, compounded by cabin fever during polar vortices.

U.S. data shows mixed seasonal patterns—some studies note holiday spikes—but economic downturns consistently correlate with IPV rises. As climate change intensifies extremes, universities like Wake Forest urge integrating violence prevention into disaster response. Read Wake Forest's coverage here.

Wake Forest University's Contributions to Interdisciplinary Research

At Wake Forest, Lakdawala's work exemplifies economics' role in addressing societal ills. As Clark Family Faculty Fellow, she mentors undergrads like research assistants Cameron Blair, Juan Londoño, Wyla Solsbery, and Jasmine Xu, who tackled Spanish datasets. This hands-on involvement builds future scholars, blending data science with development economics.

The Economics Department fosters such innovation, attracting talent to probe climate-social intersections. For aspiring researchers, Wake Forest models how higher education drives real-world change. Detailed insights appear in VoxDev's analysis here.

Broader Policy and Prevention Strategies

Solutions demand multi-level action: bolster safety nets, enhance early warning for weather shocks, and fund gender-sensitive aid. Universities can lead by training policymakers and researchers. Community programs offering financial literacy and conflict resolution prove vital during winters.

• Expand cash transfers tied to climate resilience.
• Promote crop insurance for farmers.
• Strengthen hotlines and shelters during extremes.

Lakdawala notes universal applicability: 'Even if income loss isn't weather-driven, financial stress and proximity predict violence.'

Future Outlook: Climate Change and Escalating Risks

As global warming spurs erratic colds, vulnerable populations face heightened threats. Wake Forest's study forecasts rising IPV without adaptation. Higher education must prioritize such research, informing UN Sustainable Development Goals on gender equality and climate action.

Optimism stems from proven mitigators—scaling them could avert millions of cases. Stakeholders, from governments to NGOs, must act swiftly.

Support Resources and Next Steps

If facing IPV, reach confidential help via the National Domestic Violence Hotline (1-800-799-7233). Academic communities offer counseling; explore university resources. Policymakers, integrate these findings into resilience plans.

For deeper dives, connect with economics programs advancing social good.

Photo by Marcus Ganahl on Unsplash