Unveiling the New Study Challenging Pre-Matric Grade Repetition in South African Schools

A groundbreaking doctoral study from Stellenbosch University has sparked fresh debate in South Africa's education landscape by questioning the necessity of high grade repetition rates in the pre-matric phases, specifically Grades 10 and 11. Conducted by Dr. Rebecca Selkirk as part of her recently completed PhD in economics, the research analyzes whether these elevated repetition levels—often exceeding 25% in key grades—are truly beneficial or merely a costly inefficiency perpetuated by an overemphasis on National Senior Certificate (NSC) or matric pass rates.

Selkirk's work draws on comprehensive data from the Education Management Information System (EMIS) and Western Cape school records spanning 2018 to 2021, revealing patterns that challenge conventional wisdom. Pre-COVID-19, approximately 1.5 million pupils repeated a grade annually across Grades 1 to 12, accounting for about 12% of all learners, with roughly one-third of these repetitions occurring in Grades 10 and 11 alone. At the close of 2019, repetition stood at 31% for Grade 10 and 24% for Grade 11 nationally.

This phenomenon, often termed grade retention, involves holding back students deemed not ready to progress, ostensibly to allow them to catch up academically. However, Selkirk argues that in the Further Education and Training (FET) phase, the effectiveness remains unclear, especially given the heightened dropout risks and substantial financial burden on the system.

The Alarming Scale of Repetition Rates Across South African Schools

Grade repetition is not a new issue in South Africa, but recent statistics underscore its persistence and scale, particularly in the pre-matric years. In public schools, over 303,236 Grade 10 learners from 2024 enrollments repeated the grade in 2025, representing about 27% of that cohort—a figure that highlights a systemic bottleneck at the entry to the FET phase.

Stellenbosch University's Research on Socio-Economic Policy (ReSEP) unit further illustrates this through enrolment data from the South African School Administration and Management System (SA-SAMS). Enrolment bulges in Grade 10 signal that more than one full cohort is often 'stuck' repeating, with one in every four entrants failing to progress immediately. By Grades 10, 11, and 12, most learners are over-age for their grade, with around 20% being three or more years older than the standard age, a direct consequence of cumulative repetitions earlier in schooling.

These rates contrast sharply with international benchmarks and even neighboring countries, where repetition consumes a smaller share of education budgets—estimated at 8% annually in South Africa. The Department of Basic Education (DBE) data confirms that repetition peaks in Grade 10, contributing to inefficiencies like overcrowded classrooms and delayed progression to matric.

Dr. Selkirk's Deep Dive: Pre-Pandemic vs. Pandemic-Era Trends

Selkirks analysis zeroes in on the COVID-19 disruption as a natural experiment. Pre-pandemic, schools with higher Grade 11 repetition rates correlated with stronger matric outcomes, potentially through 'gatekeeping'—selectively advancing stronger pupils—or allowing catch-up time. Yet, during the pandemic, repetition plummeted: Western Cape Grade 11 rates halved from 12% to 6% in 2020, and nationally from 24% to 12%.

Surprisingly, matric pass rates not only held steady but soared to record highs by 2023 and 2024—88% overall for the Class of 2025—equivalent to pre-pandemic gains accrued over six to eight years. Factors like pupil age, subject choices, and academic ability did not fully explain this, prompting Selkirk to question if pre-pandemic 'gains' from repetition were artificial, perhaps via grade inflation in standardization processes.

Post-pandemic, repetition is rebounding, raising concerns that restoring high rates may undo pandemic-era efficiencies, such as smaller classes and reduced psychosocial harms from labeling repeaters.

Subject Choices Under Scrutiny: The Push for 'Easier' Options

A critical angle in Selkirk's study is how matric-centric incentives distort subject selections. Schools, under pressure to boost pass rates, may steer repeating or struggling learners toward less demanding subjects, sidelining gateway options like Mathematics, Physical Sciences, and Accounting—essential for bachelor passes and university admission in STEM fields.

This practice inflates overall NSC passes but undermines long-term employability and higher education readiness. For instance, only 6.3% of the 2024 matric cohort achieved a quality pass (60%+) in Mathematics, highlighting foundational weaknesses exacerbated by poor early progression and mismatched subjects.Career advice for educators emphasizes aligning school subjects with tertiary demands to bridge this gap.

The DBE's progression policy, intended to curb automatic promotion, has inadvertently amplified these dynamics in no-fail scenarios, leading to over-age cohorts ill-prepared for rigorous university curricula.

Economic Burden and Social Ramifications of Repetition

Financially, repetition devours resources: the 1.5 million annual repeaters pre-COVID strained budgets, diverting funds from teacher training or infrastructure. Dropout risks peak post-Grade 10, with many over-age youth exiting the system entirely, perpetuating inequality in a nation where education is key to social mobility.

Socially, repeated labelling erodes self-esteem, increases psychosocial stress, and correlates with higher absenteeism. Selkirk notes, “We spend a lot of money on retaining learners in grades 10 and 11, where repetition’s effectiveness is unclear, and the associated drop-out risk is highest.”

For higher education, this means a thinner pipeline: fewer age-appropriate, qualified applicants, straining university jobs in South Africa and widening access gaps for disadvantaged groups.

Photo by Minh Đức on Unsplash

Early Grades Repetition: A Contrasting Success Story

While FET repetition draws scrutiny, ReSEP's recent work vindicates it in foundation phases. Using regression discontinuity on 2017-2023 data from six provinces, Grade 1 repeaters gained over one standard deviation in Home Language, Maths, and English the next year, with persistent effects. Grade 4 showed smaller but enduring benefits.

This suggests targeted repetition works early, when cognitive gains are rapid, but loses efficacy later amid adolescent complexities and dropout pressures.

Over-Age Learners: A Systemic Red Flag in FET

ReSEP dashboards reveal 20% of FET learners three-plus years over-age, with Grade 10 as the primary choke point. This inefficiency—repetition plus dropouts—means the system graduates far fewer than it enrolls, impacting labor market readiness and higher ed jobs.

Bridging to Higher Education: Repetition's Long Shadow

High pre-matric repetition delays university entry, with over-age matriculants less likely to pursue tertiary studies due to opportunity costs and stigma. Easier subject choices further hobble access to competitive programs; a maths-physical science pass is prerequisite for engineering at universities like UCT or Wits.

DBE reports show bachelor passes—gateway to degree programs—lag despite overall NSC highs, partly from foundational gaps. Strengthening progression could swell the qualified pool, benefiting university jobs and South Africa's knowledge economy.Read the full Sunday Times feature.

Voices from the Field: Experts and Policymakers Weigh In

Selkirks quotes underscore urgency: “There is enough evidence to suggest that our high grade 10 and 11 repetition rates may not be justified.” Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube has acknowledged Grade 10 bottlenecks, linking them to male dropouts.

ReSEP advocates data-driven reforms, while unions push remediation over retention. Multi-perspective views highlight need for balanced policy.

Alternatives to Repetition: Promising Pathways Forward

Selkirks calls for research on non-repetition interventions: targeted tutoring, accelerated learning, mentorship. Pandemic catch-up programs proved effective, suggesting scaled support could match or exceed repetition benefits at lower cost.

• Personalized remediation using tech for foundational skills.
• Flexible subject streaming without retention penalties.
• Early warning systems to prevent Grade 10 cliffs.
• Teacher upskilling via higher ed career advice programs.

Redirecting repetition savings could fund these, enhancing equity.

Photo by Tiry Nelson Gono on Unsplash

Outlook: Reimagining Progression for a Brighter Future

As repetition rises post-COVID, South Africa stands at a crossroads. Selkirks study urges reevaluation, prioritizing evidence over inertia. For higher ed, optimized school pipelines promise more prepared entrants, bolstering institutions amid enrollment pressures. Explore Rate My Professor, higher ed jobs, and career advice to stay ahead. With concerted reforms, South African schools can foster timely, skilled graduates ready for university and beyond.