South Africa's Green Energy Shift Sparks Job Growth Amid Uneven Distribution

South Africa's ambitious push towards renewable energy sources is underway, driven by international commitments like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which pledges $8.5 billion to decarbonize the economy. Recent research from the University of Cape Town's African Centre of Excellence in Inequality Research (ACEIR) highlights a critical tension: while green jobs are emerging, their benefits are not reaching all corners of society equally. The ACEIR working paper no. 15, published in September 2025, analyzes labor market data to reveal how the green transition could exacerbate regional and demographic divides unless targeted interventions are prioritized.

This study, also issued as a Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) working paper, employs a dual bottom-up and top-down framework using Spatial Tax Panel data across provinces and municipalities. It underscores South Africa's unique position as a major carbon emitter reliant on coal for 70% of its electricity, making the shift to solar, wind, and green hydrogen imperative yet challenging amid 30% unemployment rates.

From Coal Dependency to Renewable Ambitions: The Policy Landscape

The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), launched in 2011, has been pivotal, commissioning over 6,000 megawatts of renewable capacity by 2025. Coupled with the JETP signed at COP26, these initiatives aim for net-zero emissions by 2050. However, coal-dominant Mpumalanga province, home to Eskom's power stations, faces stark realities with over 4,000 job losses reported in recent retrenchments.

University researchers at Stellenbosch University and the University of Pretoria emphasize that the transition must incorporate skills development to mitigate shocks. Programs like the Wits Strategic Hydrogen Localisation Investment Facility are emerging to localize green hydrogen production, potentially creating thousands of jobs in engineering and manufacturing.

Quantifying Green Job Growth: Stats from Recent Surveys

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data, analyzed in the UCT study, shows green employment rising from 12.4% of total jobs in 2022 to 14.8% in 2024. Sectors leading include utilities (electricity generation shifting to renewables), mining (rehabilitation and solar farms), construction (green buildings), and finance (ESG reporting).

• Utilities: Highest green job concentration due to REIPPPP projects.
• Mining: Environmental rehab offsets some coal declines.
• Construction: Solar panel installations boom.

Projections suggest 85,000 to 275,000 new green jobs by 2030, primarily in energy production and agriculture, per ILO-aligned research from University of Pretoria.

Sectoral Disparities: Where Green Jobs Thrive and Lag

While renewables create roles in installation and maintenance, manufacturing and operations lag due to import dependency. The Public Investment Corporation's (PIC) 2025 report on scaling institutional capital for green jobs notes that grid upgrades are underfunded, limiting local value chains.

UCT economists Katherine Davidson and colleagues highlight that without localization policies, benefits accrue to skilled importers rather than local workers. For instance, wind turbine components are often imported, sidelining domestic manufacturing.Explore faculty positions in sustainable engineering at South African universities.

Regional Fault Lines: Mpumalanga's Coal Crisis vs Urban Gains

Mpumalanga, contributing 83% of SA's coal power, risks 80,000 mining jobs by 2030 without reskilling. The UCT framework reveals stark municipal variations: coal-heavy areas face net losses, while Gauteng and Western Cape see gains from solar and wind hubs.

Informal coal miners in Mpumalanga report exclusion from JETP plans, as noted in 2026 media coverage. Stellenbosch University studies advocate repurposing retired plants for renewables to retain grids and jobs.

Demographic Divides: Skills, Gender, and Informality Gaps

Green jobs favor younger (under 35), formally employed men with post-secondary education. Women and informal workers (43% of workforce) are underrepresented, perpetuating SA's Gini coefficient of 0.68, the world's highest.

Racial disparities persist post-apartheid, with black workers overrepresented in low-skill coal roles. UCT's Ariane de Lannoy stresses inclusive metrics for 'greenness' beyond environmental tasks to include decent work standards.

Higher Education's Pivotal Role: Research and Training Hubs

South African universities are at the forefront. UCT's ACEIR leads inequality-focused analysis, while University of Pretoria calls for rethinking vocational training.Craft your CV for green energy academic roles. Wits University's hydrogen facility trains engineers, and TVET colleges under UNDP's JET Skills Programme graduated first cohorts in 2025, focusing on energy efficiency.

Stellenbosch's patents in green tech underscore unis' innovation edge. Yet, skills mismatches loom: officials lack renewable competencies, per Frontiers research.

Challenges on the Ground: Case Studies from RE Projects

The Redstone Solar PV plant in Northern Cape created 2,000 construction jobs but few permanent locals. In contrast, Kenhardt wind farm localized 40% procurement. Mpumalanga's informal miners, numbering thousands, seek inclusion in waste-to-energy initiatives.Read the full UCT ACEIR paper.

UNRISD's 2025 report critiques JETP for overlooking community voices, risking deepened poverty.

Policy Solutions: Bridging the Inequality Gap

Researchers recommend: (1) Active labor policies for reskilling coal workers; (2) Local content mandates in REIPPPP; (3) Informal sector integration via cooperatives; (4) Enhanced Stats SA green job tracking. UP's framework urges anticipatory planning to avoid 'skills afterthought'.

• Upskill 400,000-600,000 workers over 25 years (NBI report).
• Targeted bursaries in unis for green engineering.
• Municipal support for waste pickers in circular economy.

Future Projections and Higher Ed Opportunities

By 2030, green economy could add 24 million global jobs (ILO), with SA poised for leadership via minerals. Universities like UCT project geographic shifts unless mitigated. For aspiring professionals, South African university jobs in sustainability research abound, alongside higher ed positions in energy policy.

Optimism tempers caution: with JETP funds flowing, 2026 marks a pivot year for equitable growth.

Photo by kurt arendse on Unsplash

Charting an Inclusive Path Forward

The UCT research illuminates that South Africa's green energy transition jobs inequality demands urgent, evidence-based action. By leveraging university expertise—from ACEIR's analytics to Wits' hydrogen hubs—policymakers can ensure no one is left behind. Aspiring educators and researchers can contribute via roles at university jobs, while job seekers explore higher ed jobs in green fields. Share your insights in comments, rate professors shaping this discourse at Rate My Professor, and access career tips at Higher Ed Career Advice. The transition's success hinges on inclusive skills ecosystems led by South Africa's academic institutions.