DP World Survey Highlights UAE's Top-Tier Trade Optimism

The latest DP World Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report for 2026 reveals striking optimism among UAE executives regarding future global trade dynamics. Surveying over 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics leaders across 19 countries and eight industries, the report indicates that 94 percent globally anticipate trade growth in 2026 to match or surpass 2025 levels. Within the UAE, this sentiment is even stronger, with 64 percent of executives expecting at least equivalent growth, placing the nation among the world's most bullish markets.

This confidence persists despite headwinds such as escalating tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions. UAE leaders' outlook underscores the country's strategic positioning as a global trade nexus, bolstered by world-class infrastructure and proactive economic policies.

Comparative Confidence: UAE Outpaces Global Peers

Globally, while 94 percent hold positive views, regional variations highlight UAE's leadership. Neighboring Saudi Arabia shows 70 percent optimism, but UAE's 64 percent—coupled with broader Middle East strength—signals exceptional regional resilience. In contrast, the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a more modest 0.5 percent merchandise trade growth for 2026, underscoring executives' divergence from conservative projections.

This gap reflects UAE executives' faith in localized advantages. For instance, Dubai's Jebel Ali Port, operated by DP World, handles millions of TEUs annually, serving as a linchpin for re-exports to Europe, Africa, and Asia. Such assets enable agility amid uncertainty, allowing firms to pivot supply chains effectively.

Drivers of UAE's Robust Trade Outlook

Several interconnected factors fuel this optimism. First, the UAE's aggressive pursuit of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs). Since 2021, the nation has inked deals with India, Israel, Indonesia, Turkey, and others, slashing tariffs and opening markets. These pacts are projected to boost non-oil trade by 20-30 percent in key sectors like logistics and manufacturing.

Second, non-oil sectors dominate growth forecasts. Economists predict 5 percent overall GDP expansion in 2026, with non-oil GDP rising 5.3 percent, driven by construction, tourism, and financial services. The Central Bank of the UAE revised its outlook upward, citing resilient domestic demand and foreign investment inflows exceeding AED 100 billion in 2025.

Third, digital transformation and AI integration in logistics. UAE firms leverage blockchain for transparent supply chains and predictive analytics for demand forecasting, mitigating risks like Red Sea disruptions that rerouted 15 percent of global trade in late 2025.

Navigating Tariff Turbulence: HSBC Survey Echoes Resilience

Complementing DP World findings, an HSBC survey from late 2025 positions UAE businesses as the world's most confident in handling trade tariffs and barriers. UAE leaders are diversifying suppliers—40 percent plan deeper China ties, 35 percent explore Southeast Asia—while 80 percent report readiness for US policy shifts under potential new administrations.

"Increasingly, UAE business leaders are choosing to deepen partnerships in growth markets like China and India," notes HSBC's analysis. This strategy has shielded UAE exports, which hit AED 2.6 trillion in 2025, with a AED 140 billion surplus.

Real-world example: Emirates SkyCargo expanded freighter routes to Mumbai and Jakarta post-CEPA, boosting cargo volumes 25 percent year-on-year.

PwC CEO Survey: Middle East Optimism Anchored in UAE

PwC's 29th Global CEO Survey reinforces the narrative, with 88 percent of Middle East CEOs—many UAE-based—expecting territorial growth acceleration. UAE CEOs stand out, with 93 percent in the GCC confident, prioritizing workforce expansion (84 percent) and AI adoption.

• 88 percent foresee revenue growth from AI.
• UAE ranks high for investment appeal.
• Focus on sustainability aligns with net-zero pledges.

This aligns with UAE's Operation 300bn initiative, targeting AED 300 billion in industrial exports by 2031.

Strategic Infrastructure Fuels Competitive Edge

DP World's investments exemplify UAE's edge. Jebel Ali Free Zone hosts 9,500 companies from 130 nations, generating USD 162 billion in trade. Etihad Rail's expansion connects northern emirates, cutting logistics costs 20 percent.

Government initiatives like Golden Visa for investors and NextGen FDI program attracted USD 23 billion in 2025, bolstering supply chains.

Case study: A Dubai-based electronics firm rerouted shipments via UAE hubs during Houthi attacks, maintaining 98 percent on-time delivery versus global 75 percent average.

Challenges Ahead: Geopolitics and Supply Shocks

Optimism tempers realism. Executives cite tariffs (cited by 60 percent), policy uncertainty (55 percent), and costs (50 percent) as top risks. Potential US 60 percent tariffs on China could ripple, but UAE's neutral stance and FTAs mitigate impacts.

Red Sea issues persist, with 12 percent trade diversion, yet UAE ports captured 30 percent extra volume.

Sector-Specific Boosts: Logistics, Manufacturing, Tourism

Logistics leads with 70 percent UAE executives bullish, followed by manufacturing (65 percent). Tourism rebound, with 18 million visitors in 2025, supports trade in services.

Re-exports surged 15 percent, positioning UAE as top Middle East trader.

Implications for Businesses and Policymakers

For executives, this signals expansion opportunities. Diversify partners, invest in tech, leverage FTAs. SMEs can tap Khalifa Fund for financing.

Policymakers eye sustained reforms, with Dubai Economic Agenda D33 targeting USD 100 billion in trade services FDI.

Explore opportunities in UAE via UAE job listings or executive roles.

Future Outlook: Sustaining Momentum into 2027

Projections: UAE trade to hit AED 3 trillion by 2027, non-oil at 6 percent growth. AI and green trade (hydrogen exports) pivotal.

Stakeholder view: "UAE's model thrives amid volatility," per industry leader.

Actionable: Audit supply chains quarterly, pursue CEPAs, upskill workforce.

Internal links: career advice for navigating growth.

Photo by Darragh Furey on Unsplash

Conclusion: UAE as Global Trade Beacon

UAE executives' optimism heralds a vibrant 2026, blending resilience and vision. As global trade navigates storms, UAE charts a confident course.

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