High-Risk Visa Concerns: New Student Visa Settings for India Raise Alarms in Australian Higher Education

Understanding the Shift to Evidence Level 3 for Indian Student Visas

Australia's Department of Home Affairs announced on January 8, 2026, that India has been reclassified to Evidence Level 3 (EL3), the highest-risk category under the Simplified Student Visa Framework (SSVF) for Student visa (subclass 500) applications. 20 97 This move, affecting India alongside Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, stems from data-driven assessments highlighting emerging integrity issues such as fraudulent documentation and higher rates of visa refusals and cancellations.

The SSVF, introduced to streamline processing while managing risks, assigns evidence levels based on a weighted formula: 40% for refusals due to fraud, 25% for visa cancellations, 10% for other refusals, 15% for unlawful non-citizens, and 10% for subsequent protection visa applications. 96 Countries like India, with a score above 2.7, default to EL3, requiring applicants to submit substantially more evidence on financial capacity, English proficiency, and genuine study intent.

For context, India was briefly at EL2 (moderate risk) from October to December 2025 before reverting, a pattern reflecting ongoing monitoring of immigration outcomes over the prior 12 months. 97

The Genuine Student Requirement Under Scrutiny

Central to these changes is the Genuine Student (GS) requirement, which replaced the Genuine Temporary Entrant (GTE) criterion to better assess if an applicant's primary purpose is temporary study in Australia. Applicants must provide a detailed statement covering current circumstances, reasons for choosing the specific course, provider, and Australia over alternatives, academic history, post-study plans (emphasizing return home), and economic/social ties to India. 85

In EL3 countries, case officers apply stricter tests, often requesting additional documents or interviews. Recent high-profile refusals, like that of an Indian software engineer applying for a master's at a top university, underscore the need for consistency and credible academic progression—jumping from unrelated fields without justification raises red flags. 0 Common pitfalls include weak home ties, mismatched course choices, or reliance on education agents pushing migration pathways over study goals.

• Financial proof: At least A$29,710 for living costs plus first-year tuition, via 3-month-old bank statements (loans insufficient alone).
• English: Higher IELTS/TOEFL scores may be demanded.
• GS statement: Must demonstrate value addition to career back home, not PR intent.

Australian universities issuing Confirmations of Enrolment (CoEs) to high-risk applicants face heightened scrutiny, potentially delaying intakes.

Indian Students' Pivotal Role in Australian Higher Education

Indian students form Australia's largest international cohort, with 139,720 enrolled from January to September 2025—a 4% rise from 2024—and comprising 22% of new enrolments. 66 95 Over 120,000 Indians studied in Australia in 2025, fueling growth in fields like IT, engineering, and business at institutions such as the University of Sydney and Melbourne. 60

International students, heavily Indian-sourced, contribute 15-40% of university revenue, supporting research, infrastructure, and staffing amid domestic funding shortfalls. 70 The University of Sydney, for instance, derives 51% of enrolments from internationals, highlighting vulnerability to visa flux.

Visa refusal rates for Indians hovered around 30-50% in recent years, exacerbated by EL3, potentially diverting talent to Canada or the UK.

Direct Impacts on Australian Universities and Colleges

The reclassification burdens universities with procedural hurdles: extended processing (4-8 weeks or more), higher refusal risks, and enrollment uncertainty, especially for February/July intakes. 97 Public universities (low-risk providers) fare better, but smaller colleges and regional campuses reliant on Indian fees face revenue dips and staffing challenges.

Prior actions, like Victoria and NSW universities banning recruitment from high-fraud Indian states (e.g., Punjab, Haryana), signal proactive risk management. 11 Broader policies—a 270,000 student cap for 2025 and Ministerial Direction 115 prioritizing genuine students—compound pressures, pushing unis into 'survival mode.'

Stakeholder Perspectives: Voices from the Sector

Dr. Abul Rizvi, former immigration deputy secretary, notes minimal impact on public unis but greater evidence scrutiny overall: 'The quantity of evidence required... is significantly greater.' 97 International education specialist Ravi Lochan Singh downplays practical shifts, citing prior EL3 familiarity, but warns of media-fueled perception damage.

Economist Prof. Glenn Withers AO critiques ad-hoc changes as population controls undermining competitiveness: 'Fewer qualify and fewer apply... global competitiveness will generally be reduced by uncertainty.' Universities Australia has urged stable policies, emphasizing international education's A$48 billion GDP boost.

Student agents report applicant anxiety, with some pivoting to scholarships or alternative destinations, while unis push enhanced counseling.

Real-World Case Studies and Refusal Trends

A January 31, 2026, refusal for an Indian applicant to University of Sydney's Bachelor program cited inadequate GS rationale—career gaps unexplained, weak India ties. 93 Another involved fake transcripts from Punjab agents, triggering 10-year bans under PIC 4020.

Refusal rates: India ~68.5% approval in recent data (31.5% rejection), higher for EL3. 56 Trends show 50% rejections in 2023 for fraud-linked apps, prompting unis to vet agents rigorously.

Strategies for Universities to Navigate Visa Challenges

• Partner with verified agents; audit CoE issuance.
• Offer pre-arrival GS workshops, tying courses to Indian job markets.
• Diversify sources (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia) while supporting Indians via academic CV guidance.
• Lobby for predictability through Universities Australia.

Explore faculty positions to bolster programs attracting genuines.

Applicant Tips: Securing Approval Amid High-Risk Settings

Indian aspirants should front-load robust GS statements, proving logical progression (e.g., BCom to MBA Finance for banking career in Mumbai). Secure genuine funds, avoid 'visa mills.'

Choose low-risk unis like Group of Eight for faster processing. Utilize resume templates for post-study plans emphasizing Indian returns.

Photo by Skytech Aviation on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Balancing Integrity and Growth

While govt assures welcome for genuines, repeated tweaks risk eroding Australia's appeal amid global competition. Projections: 10-15% Indian growth pre-change; now tempered by 10-20% application drops.

Solutions-oriented: Enhanced data-sharing with Indian authorities, AI fraud detection. Unis poised for resilience via innovation.

In summary, EL3 flags integrity needs but alarms higher ed on stability. Explore Rate My Professor, higher-ed jobs, career advice, university jobs, or post a job at AcademicJobs.com.