ANU Study: Most Australians Expect National Security Crises to Strike Soon

Rising National Security Anxieties in Australia: Insights from ANU's Comprehensive Surveys

The Australian National University (ANU) National Security College has released a landmark report titled "No worries? Australian attitudes to national security, risk and resilience," revealing a significant uptick in public concern over potential security crises. Drawing from over 20,000 survey responses across three waves from November 2024 to February 2026, along with focus groups and nationwide consultations, the study paints a picture of Australians bracing for multiple shocks in the near future. 52 53 This research underscores ANU's pivotal role in understanding how everyday Australians perceive threats that could disrupt normal life, from economic downturns to technological disruptions.

Conducted using the nationally representative Life in Australia™ panel, the surveys captured shifts in attitudes amid evolving global tensions. The February 2026 wave, post the Bondi terror attack, showed 64% of respondents worried about national security, up from 42% in late 2024—a 22 percentage point increase. This escalation highlights how recent events amplify perceptions of vulnerability. 50

Methodology Behind ANU's Groundbreaking Research

ANU's study employed rigorous methods to ensure representativeness. Three online surveys (n=6,013 in November 2024, n=6,049 in July 2025, n=8,162 in February 2026) assessed threat likelihood, seriousness, consequences, and preparedness on a 1-5 scale. Eight deliberative focus groups in November 2025, stratified by age and gender, delved deeper into qualitative insights, while over 480 conversations and 100 submissions provided broader context. 53

Participants rated 15 threats, including AI-enabled attacks, economic crises, and foreign military incursions. Demographic breakdowns revealed variations by age, gender, location, and socioeconomic status. For instance, younger Australians (18-24) showed the sharpest anxiety rise, from 22% to 55% worried. This multi-method approach positions ANU as a leader in social science research on security perceptions, blending quantitative data with lived experiences. 52

Top Threats: Non-Military Risks Dominate Public Concerns

Australians prioritize non-traditional threats. In July 2025, 77% rated AI-enabled attacks as a major or moderate threat, followed by severe economic crisis (75%), critical supply disruptions (74%), disinformation (73%), and foreign interference (72%). By February 2026, cyber threats topped at 78%, violent extremism at 77%, and terrorism at 72%—a jump from 55% pre-Bondi. 51

Over 85% expect climate impacts, AI attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crises, and supply disruptions within five years. These findings reflect ANU researchers' emphasis on 'polycrises'—intersecting risks compounding each other—drawing from global events like supply chain strains from Middle East tensions. 50

Military Fears Persist Despite Lower Probability Ratings

While non-military risks lead, military threats loom large. 68% deem Australian involvement in overseas conflict likely within five years, and 45% see a foreign military attack on home soil as probable. However, 79% anticipate major or catastrophic consequences from such an attack (43% major, 36% catastrophic), making it the most feared despite lower likelihood. 49

ANU's analysis distinguishes direct attacks from alliances, noting geographic isolation and U.S. ties as buffers, yet public apprehension has grown amid Indo-Pacific tensions. Focus groups expressed fears of entanglement without adequate deterrence.

A Nation Perceived as Underprepared: The Preparedness Gap

Fewer than one in five Australians believe the country is 'very' or 'fully' prepared for any threat, with ratings as low as 4% for AI attacks. Over half rate preparedness as 'not at all' or 'slightly' for two-thirds of risks. Pandemic response fares best (18%), leveraging COVID experience, while novel threats like AI lag. 53

This gap fuels anxiety, particularly for high-likelihood threats. ANU experts like Professor Rory Medcalf note it burdens policymakers to enhance resilience against multiple shocks. For full details, see the ANU report PDF.

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Demographic Divides: Who Feels Most Vulnerable?

Age gaps are stark: 75+ worry most (82% see need to strengthen security), while 18-24 lag at 49%, though their anxiety surged 33 points. Women perceive threats as more serious (e.g., terrorism 68% vs. men's 46%) and underestimate knowledge (23% vs. 46% men confident). Regional areas, lower SES, and Australian-born show higher concern. 52

• Northern Territory: Highest on AI (89%), economic crisis (86%).
• ACT: Lowest worry (46%), highest knowledge (41%).
• Tasmania: Elevated crime (63%), climate fears (75%).

These insights inform ANU's push for tailored strategies in higher education-led policy research.

Voices from the Ground: Focus Groups Reveal Everyday Realities

ANU's deliberative groups exposed nuances: Younger women cite housing and cost-of-living as immediate crises eroding resilience; older participants stress self-reliance. Quotes like "How am I going to afford basic groceries? It's all unravelling" (young WA student) contrast with "We have to take responsibility ourselves" (SA volunteer). 53 Climate is 'here now' via floods/bushfires; AI via scams. Trust favors agencies over politicians/media.

Government Communication: Calls for Transparency Without Panic

53% say government shares too little on threats (41% too little, 12% far too little). Medcalf urges clearer info to build confidence: "The public is open to national conversations on preparedness." Yet, nuance is key to avoid hysteria, as per ABC coverage. 50

ANU recommends media literacy and co-designed policies, leveraging higher ed's role in public discourse.

Building Resilience: Civic Duty and Community Spirit

Post-Bondi, 71% agree all Australians can enhance safety (32% strongly). Community spirit shines, but capability lags—ageing volunteers, single infrastructure failures. ANU highlights socioeconomic fixes and redundancies as paths forward.

ANU's Leadership in Security Research and Policy Impact

As Australia's premier institution for national security studies, ANU's NSC bridges academia and policy. This study informs the 2026 National Security Conference, emphasizing higher education's role in fostering informed publics. Collaborations with government could translate findings into actionable resilience programs. 52

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Recent Events Amplify Fears: Bondi and Beyond

Terrorism concerns doubled post-Bondi (55% to 72%), with memorials under heightened security. Global ripples like Iran tensions exacerbate supply fears. Guardian notes 45% attack probability amid Indo-Pacific strains. 49

Policy Implications and Future Outlook

ANU urges reframing security around communities, boosting media literacy, and addressing polycrises. With threats converging, universities like ANU are vital for evidence-based strategies. As Medcalf states, "Australians are realistic... puts burden on government." 50 Proactive research ensures Australia navigates risks resiliently.