The Ambitious Australia Report Signals Crisis in National Research

A landmark independent review has delivered a stark verdict on Australia's research landscape: the system is fundamentally broken. Titled Ambitious Australia, the Strategic Examination of Research and Development (SERD) final report, chaired by Robyn Denholm, Tesla's chair, was released in March 2026. Commissioned by the federal government, it draws from extensive consultations and paints a picture of fragmentation, declining investment, and missed opportunities that threaten the nation's economic future. The panel warns that without bold reforms, Australia risks falling further behind global competitors, with productivity growth already at its lowest in decades.

At its core, Research, Development, and Innovation (RD&I)—a term encompassing the full spectrum from blue-sky foundational research to commercial translation—is described as atomized across over 150 Commonwealth programs. This sprawl creates bureaucracy that stifles startups and small firms, while universities grapple with underfunded grants and rigid regulations. The report's call to action resonates deeply within higher education, where institutions produce 3% of the world's new knowledge despite comprising just 0.3% of the global population.

Tracing the Decline: From Innovation Leader to Laggard

Australia once punched above its weight in innovation. During the Hawke-Keating era in the 1980s and 1990s, public investment in science fueled productivity growth surpassing OECD averages and spurred high-value exports. The 'Clever Country' vision promised a shift from resource reliance to knowledge-driven prosperity. Yet, by 2008-09, gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) peaked at 2.24% of GDP, only to slide to 1.69% by 2023-24—below the OECD average.

Business R&D intensity has plummeted 31% since 2009 to 0.9% of GDP, compared to the OECD's 1.99%. Government R&D intensity dropped 37% over the same period. These figures underscore a manufacturing GDP share that's the lowest among developed OECD nations, with exports still dominated by natural resources and agriculture (around 50%). The Intergenerational Report projects just 57% GDP per capita growth over the next 40 years, halved from 2002 estimates. For universities, this manifests in real-terms declines: Australian Research Council (ARC) grants down 15% and National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) grants 19% since 2013-15.

International rankings highlight the lag. Australia's economic complexity ranks 105th out of 145, and venture capital investment sits at a mere 0.16% of GDP versus 0.88% in Singapore. Highly cited research remains strong at 4.4%, but without scale, it fails to translate into jobs or industries.

Fragmentation: A Bureaucratic Maze Hampering Progress

The system's over 150 programs, spread across portfolios like Education, Industry, Health, and Defence, breed duplication and inefficiency. Researchers spend excessive time on applications—NHMRC applicants alone logged 550 working years in 2012, costing $66 million annually. Startups navigate 'navigators' just to access funds, while small businesses deem processes onerous.

• Overlaps between schemes like Australia's Economic Accelerator and Industry Growth Program waste resources.
• Risk aversion prioritizes safe, incremental projects over high-impact 'moonshots'.
• Focus on inputs (spend, publications) ignores outcomes like economic or social impact.

Universities bear the brunt, covering gaps in indirect costs—now at 18.4% for competitive grants, down from 26% in 2017. This squeezes operations, from lab maintenance to admin, forcing institutions to divert funds from core research.

University Funding Squeeze: ARC and NHMRC Under Pressure

Higher education institutions, investing $10-14 billion annually in R&D (over 20% of national total), face chronic underfunding. ARC success rates hover around 13-18% for schemes like Discovery Early Career Researcher Awards, while NHMRC Ideas Grants dipped to 8.1% in 2025—some states like WA at just 3.8%. Rejection rates exceed 90% in key programs, demoralizing early-career researchers.

Real-terms cuts compound issues: grants don't cover full delivery costs, with universities subsidizing over 50% of their R&D from own sources. Research block funding grew modestly (15% real terms 2014-2025), but competitive grants lag. The report labels this a 'crisis,' urging reversal to 2013-15 levels by 2026, indexation, and full indirect cost recovery.

Read the detailed analysis in the full Ambitious Australia report.

PhD Pipeline in Peril: Enrolments Drop Amid Career Uncertainty

Domestic PhD enrolments hit 20-year lows, masked by international students. Stipends below the poverty line ($36,000 target urged), taxed part-time scholarships, and exclusion from income support deter candidates—especially First Nations, women, and re-entering workers. Only 45% of R&D workforce is in business (OECD 68%), with low academia-industry mobility.

Careers suffer: oversupply of PhDs chases shrinking academic jobs (46,971 staff in 2021 vs 54,086 in 2016). Graduates face precarious contracts, pushing many overseas or non-research roles. The report proposes $50,000 stipends for 1,000 pillar-aligned places, tax-free part-time, industry PhDs (1,500 cadetships), and entrepreneurial training.

Rigid Regulations Stifle University Specialisation

Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency rules mandate research breadth (50% of teaching fields), creating 'homogenous' universities unable to specialize in strengths. This spreads resources thin, hindering scale in areas like quantum or ag-tech. Reforms propose dropping breadth for focus on 3+ fields, aligning with pillars.

Six National Innovation Pillars: Universities at the Core

To focus efforts, the report outlines six pillars: Health and Medical, Agriculture and Food, Defence, Environment and Energy, Resources, Technology. National Strategic Initiatives (NSIs)—up to 18 large-scale partnerships—will consolidate programs like Cooperative Research Centres, involving universities as knowledge creators. Advisory councils will set subgoals, fostering translation.

Boosting Translation: New Incentives and Collaborations

Reform the R&D Tax Incentive (RDTI) with premium streams for startups (quarterly cash), growth links for SMEs, and points-based for corporates partnering universities. Vouchers ($150k) for ineligible firms to access uni labs. National Innovation Council (NIC) oversees, with 'if not, why not' procurement favoring local RD&I. For details, see the analysis in The Conversation.

Stakeholder Applause: Unis and Academy Demand Action

The Group of Eight (Go8) hails universities as the 'backbone,' investing $10b yearly, educating half of PhDs. They back specialisation, PhD uplifts, and superannuation for VC. Australian Academy of Science urges 2026-27 Budget start, protecting foundational research. University of Melbourne aligns pillars with its accelerators, pushing precincts like Biomedical Precinct. Universities Australia decries fragmentation in submissions.

Implementation Hurdles: Politics and Will

Past reports like 1996's Ahead of the Rest faded with governments. Fiscal pressures, election cycles loom. Incrementalism must yield to decadal commitment—$1.8b/year to match OECD, per experts. Yet returns are high: $4.60 private/$7.14 societal per $1 invested.

Outlook for Researchers: Opportunities Amid Reform

Reforms promise specialized unis, funded PhDs, mobility (sabbaticals, joint roles), NSIs for impact. Early-career researchers gain from stable grants; unis from infrastructure like HPC. For academics eyeing research jobs, pillars signal demand in health, energy, tech. Australia's innovation flywheel—knowledge to economy—could spin faster, elevating careers.

Explore Go8's full response here.

Photo by Karl Hedin on Unsplash