A recent Leger poll has ignited widespread discussion across Canada, revealing that nearly one-third of Canadians—specifically 31%—believe the United States might attempt 'direct action' to take control of parts of their country. Conducted in the wake of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela earlier this month, the survey underscores growing anxieties about American foreign policy and its potential spillover effects on North American neighbors. This fear is not isolated; 20% of Americans surveyed in a parallel poll expressed similar views, suggesting a shared unease in bilateral perceptions.

The poll, detailed by Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns, highlights how recent events have amplified longstanding suspicions, particularly among older generations who hold more negative views of the U.S. government. With U.S.-Canada relations already strained by trade disputes, border security debates, and rhetoric from incoming administrations, this data paints a picture of eroding trust at a critical juncture.

Breaking Down the Leger Poll Results

The Leger survey, published on January 14, 2026, polled over 1,500 Canadians and a comparable sample of Americans online. Key findings include that 31% of Canadians think the U.S. might pursue direct action against Canada in the future, up significantly from pre-intervention baselines. Respondents were asked about the likelihood of U.S. intervention in various countries, with Canada ranking alongside Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, and Iran as potential targets.

Over 50% of Canadians viewed the Venezuela operation—a swift U.S.-led coalition effort to stabilize the region amid humanitarian crisis—as a violation of sovereignty, setting a 'dangerous precedent.' This sentiment was echoed by 55% who believe the U.S. will likely target other nations soon. Demographically, those aged 55 and older were most alarmed, with approval ratings for the U.S. government plummeting to historic lows.

In contrast, younger Canadians under 35 showed less concern, at around 22%, possibly reflecting greater exposure to cross-border media and economic interdependence. The poll's margin of error was ±2.5%, making the one-third figure statistically robust.

The Venezuela Trigger: What Sparked These Fears?

The catalyst for this poll was the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela on January 5, 2026, where American forces, backed by regional allies, conducted targeted operations to secure oil infrastructure and evacuate citizens amid escalating civil unrest. Officially framed as a humanitarian mission under UN auspices, critics labeled it an overreach, drawing parallels to past U.S. actions in Iraq and Panama.

For Canadians, Venezuela's proximity via trade routes and shared Arctic interests amplified worries. News coverage from CTV News emphasized how the operation's speed—completed in under 72 hours—shocked observers, prompting questions about U.S. intentions toward resource-rich neighbors like Canada.

Historical context matters: Venezuela's collapse involved hyperinflation exceeding 1,000,000% and mass migration, but the U.S. response bypassed prolonged diplomacy, fueling narratives of unilateralism. Canadian media, including Global News, linked this to broader U.S. strategic pivots under renewed focus on critical minerals in the Arctic, where Canada holds vast reserves of lithium and rare earths.

Demographic Divides: Who Fears US Action Most?

Age emerged as the strongest predictor of fear. Canadians over 55 comprised 42% of those believing in potential U.S. action, citing eroded trust from decades of perceived slights like softwood lumber tariffs and Buy American policies. Enns noted this group is 'most caught up' in current tensions, with opinions of U.S. leadership at all-time lows.

Regionally, Atlantic provinces showed higher anxiety at 37%, tied to economic dependence on U.S. markets, while Prairies lagged at 26%, buoyed by energy export alignments. Politically, Conservative voters were slightly more skeptical (34%) than Liberals (28%), though cross-partisan consensus exists on sovereignty concerns.

• 55+: 42% fear level
• 35-54: 32%
• 18-34: 22%
• Atlantic Canada: 37%
• Quebec: 29%
• Ontario: 31%

Gender gaps were minimal, but urban dwellers expressed 5% higher concern than rural respondents, per Leger data.

American Perspectives: 20% Echo Canadian Worries

Strikingly, 20% of U.S. respondents agreed their government might target Canada, a figure Leger called 'notably high' for allies. This reflects domestic polarization, with Trump-era rhetoric on annexation jokes and tariffs lingering in public memory.

U.S. media downplayed the poll, but outlets like the National Observer noted it underscores mutual misconceptions. Factors include misinformation on social media and economic frictions, like potential 25% tariffs threatened in late 2025.

Photo by Rose Butler on Unsplash

Historical Context: Echoes of Past Tensions

U.S.-Canada relations have weathered invasions fears before. The War of 1812 saw U.S. forces burn York (Toronto), fueling Loyalist myths. Fenian raids in the 1860s involved Irish-American plots to seize Canada, while 20th-century disputes over Alaska boundaries and WWII conscription strained ties.

Modern flashpoints include the 2025 trade war, where U.S. steel duties cost Canada $2.8 billion, and Arctic militarization. Trump's 2018 '51st state' quips, though jests, resurfaced amid 2026 polls. Experts like those at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute argue these fears are exaggerated but rooted in power asymmetries—U.S. GDP is 11x Canada's.

Yet, integration is deep: 75% of Canadian exports go south, and NORAD binds defense. This duality—dependence breeds vulnerability perceptions.

Social Media Storm: Reactions on X

Posts on X (formerly Twitter) reveal polarized sentiments. Some users amplify fears, citing Venezuela as precedent, with hashtags like #AnnexCanada trending briefly. Others mock annexation desires, with polls showing fringe support (under 10%) for joining the U.S., concentrated in Alberta.

Trending threads debate sovereignty, with 82% in one informal poll opposing any merger. Influencers like Terry Glavin dismissed annexation crowds as 'marginal,' urging neighborly focus. Viral posts blend humor—'Team Canada vs. Team Liberal'—with serious calls for border fortification.

This digital divide mirrors the Leger split: alarmists vs. integrationists, amplifying the one-third fear metric nationwide.

Expert Analysis: Realistic Threat or Hysteria?

Analysts diverge. Andrew Enns attributes spikes to low U.S. favorability (under 40%). Historian Jack Granatstein calls it 'overblown paranoia,' noting no serious U.S. annexation plans since 1812. Geopolitics expert Jennifer Welsh warns of 'creeping instrumentalization' via economic pressure.

From Leger360, the poll signals diplomatic urgency. Solutions proposed: bolster NATO Arctic presence, diversify trade (e.g., CPTPP), and public diplomacy to counter narratives.

• Strengthen bilateral forums like the Canada-U.S. Council
• Invest in northern defense ($38B CAD over 20 years)
• Public education on shared history

Government and Diplomatic Responses

Canadian officials downplayed fears. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly affirmed 'ironclad' alliance, while PM Mark Carney emphasized economic complementarity. No formal protests followed Venezuela, but backchannel talks intensified.

U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra reiterated commitment to sovereignty. Parliament debates ensued, with NDP pushing sovereignty audits. Provinces like Ontario eyed U.S. investments warily.

Implications for Economy, Security, and Society

Short-term: Tourism dips 3% post-poll; investor confidence wavers. Long-term risks include tariff escalations costing $50B+ annually. Security: Heightened NORAD drills planned.

Photo by Harman Sandhu on Unsplash

Societally, it fosters nationalism, boosting polls for defense spending (up 15%). Opportunities: Leverage fears for unity on Arctic claims, where 80% of resources lie untapped.

Future Outlook: Paths to Reassurance

2026 summits loom: G7 in Alberta could reset tones. Experts predict de-escalation via joint energy projects. Monitoring Venezuela aftermath will calibrate fears—if stabilized humanely, trust rebounds.

Actionable steps for Canadians: Engage in Canadian job markets resilient to shocks, explore higher-ed careers in policy analysis.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty Together

While one-third fearing U.S. action signals unease, it's a call for proactive diplomacy. Canada-U.S. ties, forged in prosperity, outweigh doomsday scenarios. Stay informed, advocate for balanced policies, and explore opportunities via Rate My Professor, Higher Ed Jobs, and Career Advice on AcademicJobs.com. United, neighbors thrive.