Background on Carlos Baleba's Rise in English Football

Carlos Baleba, the 22-year-old Cameroonian central midfielder, has become one of the most talked-about talents in the Premier League over the past couple of years. Arriving at Brighton & Hove Albion from Lille in the summer of 2023 for a reported £23.2 million, Baleba quickly established himself as a dynamic presence in midfield. His combination of physicality, technical ability, and box-to-box energy made him a standout performer during the 2024/25 season, drawing attention from several top clubs across Europe.

Born in Yaoundé, Cameroon, Baleba moved to Europe at a young age and honed his skills in the youth systems of French clubs before breaking into Lille's first team. His move to the south coast of England represented a significant step up, and he adapted swiftly to the intensity of Premier League football. Standing at around 6ft 1in, he offers a physical presence that allows him to win duels, break up play, and contribute to attacking transitions with progressive carries and accurate passing.

Manchester United's Ongoing Midfield Rebuild

Manchester United have been actively seeking to strengthen their central midfield for several seasons. Under manager Ruben Amorim, the focus has shifted towards a more structured 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 system that demands high-energy players capable of covering large areas of the pitch. The departure or reduced roles of veteran players like Casemiro have created opportunities for younger profiles who can offer longevity and dynamism.

United's interest in Baleba dates back to the previous summer, where club sources confirmed that personal terms were broadly agreed upon. However, Brighton's valuation, reportedly exceeding £100 million at the time, proved prohibitive. The Red Devils opted not to force the issue, instead exploring other options while keeping Baleba on their radar for future windows.

Timeline of Transfer Speculation

The saga began gaining serious momentum in the summer of 2025 when United made concrete enquiries. Despite agreeing personal terms with the player, who expressed a strong preference for a move to Old Trafford, the deal collapsed due to the gap in valuation between the clubs. Baleba remained at Brighton and featured regularly, though his performances fluctuated.

By January 2026, United once again explored the conditions of a potential deal during the winter window. Reports indicated that while talks occurred behind the scenes, Brighton were steadfast in their refusal to sell mid-season, preferring to retain their key asset until at least the summer. This stance aligned with the club's typical transfer strategy under owner Tony Bloom, who is known for patient, data-driven negotiations.

Heading into the 2026 summer window, speculation has intensified once more. Recent reports suggest Brighton may be more open to a sale, with their asking price potentially softening to the £70-75 million range, and in some optimistic scenarios for United fans, even lower figures around £50-60 million depending on the player's current form and market dynamics.

Player's Perspective and Form This Season

Baleba has spoken openly about the impact of constant transfer speculation. In comments earlier this season, he acknowledged feeling significant pressure but maintained that it had not negatively affected his mentality. He emphasised his focus on performing for Brighton while admitting the links to bigger clubs create an additional layer of scrutiny.

His 2025/26 campaign has been mixed. After an impressive previous year, Baleba has faced criticism for inconsistent displays, often being substituted in multiple matches, including several at half-time. This dip has led some analysts to question whether his peak valuation remains justified, potentially working in United's favour during negotiations.

Despite this, the player remains highly regarded for his athletic profile and potential. Those close to him have indicated he views Manchester United as his preferred destination, similar to other high-profile targets who have favoured the club over Champions League football elsewhere.

Brighton's Stance and Valuation Challenges

Brighton have consistently resisted approaches for Baleba, recognising his importance to their midfield and long-term plans. The club sees him as a cornerstone player with years of development ahead, given his age and contract running until 2028.

Valuation remains the key sticking point. Early reports suggested demands north of £100 million, reflecting the precedent set by their sale of Moisés Caicedo to Chelsea. More recent updates indicate a willingness to accept a reduced fee, though Brighton are unlikely to accept anything below £70 million without significant negotiation. A reported 15% sell-on clause to his former club Lille adds another layer of complexity to any potential deal.

Internally, Brighton are understood to be preparing contingency plans should Baleba depart, with the club already scouting replacements in case a move materialises this summer.

Expert Opinions and Market Context

Transfer experts and journalists have provided varied perspectives on the likelihood of a deal. Some sources close to United suggest the club believes a fee in the £50-60 million bracket now represents better value given Baleba's recent performances. Others highlight that Brighton remain difficult negotiators and could still hold out for closer to £80 million.

The broader midfield market this summer is expected to be competitive, with United also linked to players such as Elliot Anderson, Adam Wharton, and João Gomes. Baleba's familiarity with the Premier League and his specific skill set continue to make him an attractive option for Amorim's system.

Fan sentiment on social platforms shows strong support for the move among United supporters, who see Baleba as the type of energetic, modern midfielder capable of complementing existing talents like Bruno Fernandes.

Potential Impact on Manchester United

If a deal were to be completed, Baleba would add crucial depth and quality to United's engine room. His ability to press aggressively, transition quickly, and contribute goals from midfield aligns perfectly with Amorim's tactical requirements. At 22, he would also represent a long-term investment with significant resale value.

Critics argue that his current form dip needs addressing, and any signing would require careful integration to ensure he regains his best levels quickly. Supporters, however, remain optimistic about the upside, citing his previous standout performances as evidence of his ceiling.

Challenges and Risks Involved

Several hurdles remain before any transfer can be finalised. The primary one is agreeing on a fee that satisfies both clubs. Brighton’s reluctance to sell their best assets cheaply has been well-documented, and United’s recent spending patterns suggest a more measured approach under the current ownership structure.

Additionally, the player’s form and any potential injury concerns could influence the final terms. Competition from other Premier League or European clubs could also drive the price back up if interest intensifies closer to the window.

Future Outlook for Summer 2026

As the summer transfer window approaches, all eyes remain on developments between Old Trafford and the Amex. United are expected to make their intentions clear early, potentially submitting an opening bid in the coming weeks. Brighton’s response will determine whether a deal can be struck or whether the saga continues into future windows.

For Baleba, the situation presents an opportunity to take the next step in his career at a club with ambitious plans. For United, securing a player of his profile could signal a successful window focused on youth and dynamism in midfield.

Regardless of the outcome, the story underscores the high-stakes nature of Premier League transfers and the delicate balance between club ambitions, player desires, and financial realities.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash