El Niño Conditions Poised to Develop in Singapore Starting June 2026
Singapore faces the prospect of warmer and drier conditions from June through October this year as El Niño conditions are forecast to form in the coming weeks. The Meteorological Service Singapore has indicated a greater than 80 per cent chance of the climate pattern emerging between June and July 2026, coinciding with a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. These combined influences are expected to bring above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall across the city-state and much of the surrounding region.
Residents and businesses should prepare for the associated rise in haze risk from transboundary sources, particularly as drier conditions can exacerbate forest fires in neighbouring areas. Officials from the National Environment Agency and MSS issued a joint advisory on 29 May 2026 highlighting these developments and urging vigilance in the months ahead.
Understanding El Niño and Its Mechanisms
El Niño forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a naturally recurring climate phenomenon driven by shifts in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average for several consecutive months. This warming weakens the usual trade winds, allowing warm water to shift eastward and altering global weather patterns.
The current outlook marks a transition from recent neutral or La Niña conditions. International models, including those from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, place an 82 per cent probability on El Niño emerging during May to July 2026, with the event likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-2027 at a 96 per cent chance. Some projections suggest the possibility of a strong or even historically intense episode, though exact peak strength remains subject to ongoing monitoring.
The Concurrent Positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Alongside El Niño, forecasters anticipate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing in the second half of 2026. This phenomenon involves warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and cooler waters in the east, which typically reinforces drier conditions over Southeast Asia. When the two patterns overlap, their effects on rainfall and temperature can compound, leading to more pronounced dry spells in Singapore and neighbouring countries.
MSS notes that this dual influence will likely sustain warmer and drier weather through October, extending the period of elevated risk beyond what either pattern might produce alone. Historical data shows that such alignments have previously contributed to significant regional drought and fire activity.
Projected Impacts on Singapore’s Weather
Singapore can expect daytime temperatures to trend above the seasonal norm, with reduced afternoon showers and longer dry spells. The June-to-October window normally brings the southwest monsoon, but El Niño tends to suppress rainfall across the Maritime Continent. This shift could result in more frequent hot days and increased demand for cooling in homes and offices.
While Singapore’s urban environment moderates some extremes, the combination of higher temperatures and lower humidity may still affect outdoor activities, construction schedules, and water consumption patterns. The period after El Niño weakens, particularly March to May 2027, is also flagged for potentially elevated warmth as the phenomenon’s influence on temperatures peaks during its decay phase.
Photo by Alexander Dummer on Unsplash
Elevated Risk of Transboundary Haze
The drier outlook raises the likelihood of transboundary haze reaching Singapore from June to October. Reduced rainfall in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia can allow agricultural burning and forest fires to spread more readily, with smoke carried by prevailing winds. MSS and NEA have explicitly warned of this increased risk, noting that the dual climate signals heighten the potential for air quality deterioration.
Past El Niño episodes have demonstrated how quickly haze events can escalate, affecting visibility, respiratory health, and daily routines. Authorities continue to monitor satellite data and regional fire hotspots, with contingency plans in place should pollution levels rise.
Regional and Global Context
Across Southeast Asia, El Niño typically brings below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, patterns confirmed by ASEAN specialised meteorological centres. Neighbouring countries may face similar challenges with water resources, agriculture, and fire management. On a broader scale, the event contributes to global temperature anomalies, with 2026 or 2027 potentially ranking among the warmest years on record depending on the strength achieved.
Other regions experience contrasting effects: parts of South America often see increased rainfall, while Australia and parts of southern Africa may encounter drought. These teleconnections underscore the interconnected nature of the climate system.
Government Preparedness and Official Statements
Singapore’s government agencies have been proactive. Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu highlighted the possibility of a particularly intense event earlier in May, emphasising the need for readiness against intensified fires and haze. The NEA and MSS joint statement on 29 May provides clear guidance on expected conditions and encourages the public to stay informed through official channels.
Regular updates from MSS will track sea surface temperatures, atmospheric indicators, and model consensus. The agency’s long-range forecasts incorporate data from international centres, ensuring a robust evidence base for decision-making.
Practical Steps for Residents and Businesses
Individuals can reduce exposure by limiting outdoor exertion during peak heat, using air conditioning efficiently, and monitoring air quality indices. Households should ensure adequate water storage and check that air filters are clean. Businesses, especially those in construction, logistics, and tourism, may adjust schedules or implement contingency measures for haze episodes.
Community-level actions include supporting efforts to reduce open burning regionally and participating in public education campaigns on haze preparedness. Staying updated via the NEA website or MSS advisories remains the most reliable approach.
Photo by María Hoss on Unsplash
Looking Ahead: Monitoring and Long-Term Outlook
Climate scientists will continue refining forecasts as more data becomes available. While the probability of El Niño development is high, the exact intensity and duration carry some uncertainty typical of seasonal predictions issued at this time of year. Strength categorisations range from moderate to strong in many ensembles, with a smaller but notable chance of a very strong episode.
Singapore’s experience with previous events demonstrates resilience, yet each occurrence offers lessons for adaptation. Investments in early warning systems, urban greening, and regional cooperation on fire management will prove valuable in the coming months and beyond.
