Understanding the HEPI Report on Demographic Shifts in English Higher Education

The Higher Education Policy Institute, known as HEPI, released a significant report on 28 May 2026 titled Demographic decline and predatory recruitment: The twin threats to English higher education into the 2040s. Written by founder and former director Bahram Bekhradnia, the analysis examines how falling numbers of young people in the population will reshape university recruitment across England. The report highlights that 18 to 20 year olds account for around 80 per cent of undergraduate entrants, and this group is set to decline sharply after 2030.

Projections indicate a potential reduction in total student numbers of approximately 16 per cent between 2026 and 2042, rising to 18.5 per cent when measured from 2030 onwards. Income from home undergraduate students could fall by nearly 20 per cent within a decade if participation rates do not increase. These trends are not uniform, with less prestigious institutions likely to face the most acute pressures as competition intensifies.

Key Demographic Projections and Their Scale

England's working-age population is expected to shrink substantially over the coming decades, with the young adult cohort driving most undergraduate demand set to contract rapidly. The report notes that without a rise in participation rates, universities will see fewer domestic applicants overall. This decline follows years of growth in higher education participation, but the underlying population structure is now working against expansion in the home market.

Regional variations will matter, as some areas experience steeper drops in the relevant age group than others. Universities in regions with already lower participation rates may find it harder to maintain numbers, while those in more affluent areas with higher staying-on rates could fare relatively better in the short term.

The Rise of Predatory Recruitment Practices

Alongside demographic pressures, the HEPI report identifies predatory recruitment as a growing concern. This refers to universities actively targeting students who might otherwise attend other institutions, often through aggressive marketing, unconditional offers, or incentives that prioritise volume over fit. Such practices can destabilise the sector by shifting students between providers without increasing overall participation.

The combination of fewer potential students and intensified poaching creates a zero-sum environment for many institutions. Less selective universities, already operating on tighter margins, risk losing viable cohorts to more prestigious competitors seeking to offset their own domestic shortfalls.

Implications for International Student Recruitment Strategies

A follow-up HEPI blog post published on 5 June 2026, titled Beyond volume: what HEPI's report on demographic decline means for international student recruitment strategy, explores how these domestic trends affect international recruitment. The core message is that home and international recruitment can no longer be treated as separate silos. Pressure on domestic undergraduate numbers will push more institutions to look overseas for growth, potentially leading to similar competitive behaviours in the international market.

Universities may increase reliance on international fees to balance budgets, but this carries risks if it leads to over-dependence on particular source countries or aggressive tactics that damage the UK's overall reputation. Ethical, quality-focused recruitment becomes essential to avoid repeating the domestic pattern of predatory competition.

Strategic responses could include deeper partnerships with overseas institutions, enhanced post-study work opportunities, and targeted support for international graduates who wish to remain in the UK workforce. The blog emphasises that sustainable international recruitment requires long-term relationship building rather than short-term volume targets.

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Perspectives from Sector Bodies and Universities

The Russell Group issued a response to the HEPI report on the same day as its publication, acknowledging the deep-rooted financial pressures but advocating against central planning or draconian measures. Instead, it called for public funding to support high-quality, high-value provision wherever it exists, to improve graduate outcomes and maintain the UK's global standing.

Universities UK has also highlighted the need for policy stability to support recovery in international demand. Recent data shows some signs of rebound in enquiries, yet the sector remains sensitive to visa policy changes and global perceptions of the UK as a study destination.

Challenges Facing UK Universities in 2026

English universities enter this period of demographic change already under strain from previous funding constraints and rising costs. The prospect of fewer home students amplifies existing concerns about financial sustainability, particularly for institutions outside the most selective group.

International recruitment offers a potential buffer, but it is not without limits. Geopolitical factors, currency fluctuations, and competition from other English-speaking destinations can quickly alter flows. Maintaining quality and student experience remains critical to long-term success.

Potential Strategies and Solutions

Institutions are advised to focus on widening participation among remaining domestic cohorts, improving retention, and developing flexible pathways such as apprenticeships or part-time study. For international recruitment, the emphasis should shift towards value-added offerings, including employability support and alumni networks.

Collaboration between universities, rather than competition, could help share best practice and reduce wasteful expenditure on recruitment. Government bodies including the Office for Students and the Department for Education may need to consider incentives that reward sustainable growth over rapid expansion.

Investment in data analytics to predict demand shifts and targeted outreach to underrepresented groups both at home and abroad can support more resilient strategies.

Future Outlook for UK Higher Education

Looking ahead to the 2040s, the sector faces a period of adjustment rather than outright contraction if proactive measures are taken. The HEPI analysis serves as an early warning that allows time for planning. Universities that adapt by diversifying income streams, strengthening international partnerships, and prioritising student outcomes are likely to navigate the changes more successfully.

Policy interventions around visas, funding, and skills alignment will play a decisive role in determining whether the UK maintains its position as a leading destination for global talent.

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Actionable Insights for University Leaders

Leaders should review their recruitment portfolios to assess vulnerability to domestic decline and over-reliance on international fees. Scenario planning exercises that model different participation and migration outcomes can inform contingency measures.

Engaging with international alumni and employer networks can enhance the appeal of UK degrees. Monitoring competitor activity while adhering to ethical standards will help protect institutional reputation and sector stability.