Beijing Steps Up Scrutiny on Indium Shipments

China is increasing oversight of indium exports, raising concerns among global buyers that the critical metal could soon face stricter licensing requirements similar to those already in place for indium phosphide. The move comes as demand for the material surges due to its role in advanced optical components essential for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Background on Indium and Its Strategic Importance

Indium is a soft, silvery-white post-transition metal primarily obtained as a byproduct of zinc refining. China accounts for approximately 70 percent of global refined indium production. The metal finds widespread use in electronics, including flat-panel displays, solders, and solar panels, but its compound indium phosphide has gained prominence in high-performance applications.

Indium phosphide, or InP, serves as a compound semiconductor material critical for generating and detecting light in fiber-optic systems. Unlike silicon, which struggles with light emission, InP enables efficient conversion of electrical signals into coherent infrared laser light at telecommunications wavelengths. This property makes it indispensable for high-speed optical transceivers used in data centers.

Timeline of Export Measures

In February 2025, Chinese authorities placed indium phosphide and related compounds, including trimethylindium and triethylindium, on the export control list. Licenses became mandatory for shipments of these items. The policy aimed to safeguard national security interests amid broader trade tensions.

By June 2026, additional scrutiny has extended to raw indium exports themselves. Officials have not yet imposed full licensing on the metal, but buyers report heightened documentation requirements and delays in approvals. No outright shipment blocks have been widely documented to date, yet the pattern echoes earlier controls on other critical minerals.

Connection to Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure

The tightening checks coincide with explosive growth in AI workloads. Data center operators are shifting from traditional copper-based electrical signaling to photonic interconnects that transmit data as light through optical fibers. This transition supports higher bandwidth and lower power consumption per bit, addressing thermal and efficiency challenges in hyperscale facilities.

InP-based components, such as electro-absorption modulated lasers and high-speed photodiodes, form a key part of 800-gigabit and 1.6-terabit optical networking solutions. Analysts note that InP represents one of several supply-chain bottlenecks limiting the pace of AI data center expansion worldwide.

Global Supply Dynamics and Production Dominance

China's position as the leading producer gives it significant leverage over indium supply chains. Refined output reached an estimated 760 metric tons in 2025. Other producers, including South Korea, Canada, and Peru, contribute smaller shares but lack the scale to offset disruptions quickly.

Export volumes from China to the United States declined sharply following the 2025 measures, with some reports indicating drops of around 77 percent over a 14-month period. Global indium exports overall contracted substantially during the same timeframe.

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Industry Reactions and Corporate Responses

Executives at companies reliant on InP have voiced concerns. The chief executive of Coherent, a chipmaker backed by Nvidia, joined a U.S. business delegation accompanying President Donald Trump to China in May 2026 partly to discuss licensing delays for the material.

Wafer prices have risen dramatically, with 6-inch InP substrates reportedly increasing by 250 percent to around $5,000 since controls began. Firms such as Lumentum have expanded production capacity in locations including North Carolina to mitigate risks, while others explore alternative sourcing or material substitutions where feasible.

Broader Trade and Geopolitical Context

The indium measures form part of a wider pattern of Chinese export controls on critical minerals implemented in response to U.S. tariffs and technology restrictions. Earlier actions covered tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum. These policies require export licenses but stop short of complete bans in most cases.

Mutual pauses agreed in late 2025 between Washington and Beijing on certain measures are scheduled to expire in November 2026, adding uncertainty to future supply stability.

Potential Impacts on Technology Supply Chains

Prolonged restrictions could slow the deployment of next-generation AI infrastructure, affecting hyperscale operators and downstream industries that depend on rapid data processing. Higher costs may be passed along to cloud service providers and ultimately to end users of AI applications.

Countries and companies are accelerating efforts to diversify supply. Initiatives include increased domestic refining capacity outside China, recycling programs, and research into alternative photonic materials, though InP currently has no direct large-scale substitute for its specific performance characteristics.

Market and Price Developments

Indium prices have reached decade-high levels amid the uncertainty. The metal's status as a byproduct means output is tied to zinc mining volumes, limiting rapid supply responses even without export hurdles.

Traders and analysts monitor license approval rates closely, viewing recent tightening as a possible precursor to fuller controls on the raw material itself.

Future Outlook and Diversification Strategies

Stakeholders expect continued focus on supply-chain resilience. Governments in the United States, Europe, and Asia are advancing policies to secure access to critical minerals through domestic projects, international partnerships, and stockpiling.

Industry groups emphasize the need for transparent licensing processes and dialogue to prevent unintended disruptions to global technology progress. Long-term solutions may involve expanded recycling infrastructure and innovation in material efficiency.

Buyers are advised to maintain close communication with suppliers, explore multiple sourcing options, and monitor regulatory announcements from China's Ministry of Commerce for updates on licensing requirements.

Photo by Timon Studler on Unsplash

Conclusion

China's evolving approach to indium exports highlights the intersection of resource policy, technological competition, and global supply-chain vulnerabilities. As AI demand continues to grow, the handling of this niche yet vital mineral will remain a focal point for governments and industries alike.