The Spark: Sussan Ley's Resignation and the Path to the By-Election

The Division of Farrer, a vast rural electorate spanning southwestern New South Wales, has long been a stronghold of conservative politics. Encompassing key regional centers like Albury, Wagga Wagga, Griffith, Narrandera, and Deniliquin, it stretches along the Murray River border with Victoria, supporting agriculture, irrigation communities, and small towns reliant on farming and water resources. For over two decades, Liberal MP Sussan Ley represented Farrer with comfortable margins, serving as a senior figure in the party, including as Deputy Opposition Leader until early 2026.

Ley's departure stemmed from internal Liberal Party turmoil. On February 13, 2026, she lost a leadership spill to Angus Taylor by 34 votes to 17, amid debates over policy direction and party unity following the 2025 federal election. Just two weeks later, on February 27, Ley announced her resignation from parliament, citing a desire to pursue new opportunities after 25 years in public service. The writ for the by-election was issued on March 5, scheduling polls for May 9—less than three months later. This rapid timeline intensified the contest, drawing national attention as the first federal by-election post-2025 and a test for the new Liberal leadership.

Historically, Farrer has been safely held by the Coalition since its creation in 1949, with Liberals dominating since 2001 under Ley. In the 2025 election, Ley secured 56.19% of the two-candidate preferred vote against independent Michelle Milthorpe, down from larger margins, signaling early cracks amid rising independent and minor party support in regional seats.

A Crowded Field: Twelve Candidates Vie for Farrer

The ballot featured an unprecedented twelve candidates, reflecting voter fragmentation and dissatisfaction with major parties. Leading the charge was David Farley for Pauline Hanson's One Nation, an agribusiness professional with international experience in Australia, the US, Africa, and beyond. A Riverina local, Farley positioned himself as a champion for farmers, promising a Royal Commission into water management—a hot-button issue in the Murray-Darling Basin.

Michelle Milthorpe, the independent who nearly unseated Ley in 2025, campaigned on community-focused policies, backed by Climate 200 funding. Liberal Raissa Butkowski, a newcomer, struggled with party brand damage, while Nationals' Brad Robertson aimed to reclaim rural conservative votes absent since 2001. Others included Aimee Lee Pearson (Legalise Cannabis), Richard August Hendrie (Greens), Peter Sinclair (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), and minor independents and parties like Family First and Sustainable Australia.

The campaign was fiery. Farley faced scrutiny over past comments, including a 2012 quip about Julia Gillard and shares of OnlyFans content, which he dismissed as old or accidental. Coalition ads attacked One Nation's lack of solutions, while GetUp! poured nearly $600,000 into anti-One Nation efforts. Debates at the NSW Farmers' Federation and Charles Sturt University highlighted divides on water, healthcare, and cost-of-living pressures. Notably, Labor sat out the race to consolidate anti-One Nation votes.

Election Night Unfolds: One Nation's Dominant Primary Vote

Polling closed at 6pm on May 9, with early counts electrifying. By 7:45pm, Sky News called it for Farley; ABC followed at 8:03pm. First preferences showed One Nation surging to 41.95% (23,945 votes)—a staggering +34.72% swing from 6.60% in 2025. Milthorpe rose to 25.90% (+6.92%), Liberals crashed to 11.55% (-31.23% from 43.41%), and Nationals debuted at 9.63%.

With preferences, Farley clinched 59.39% two-candidate preferred against Milthorpe's 40.61%, a 18.78% margin. Formal votes totaled 57,085 (93.68%), but turnout plunged to 48.97% from 91.55% in 2025—a typical by-election drop, yet underscoring apathy or protest. Antony Green's analysis noted One Nation's strength in small rural booths, with Coalition preferences flowing between Libs and Nats but failing to halt the tide.

Unpacking the Swings: A Collapse for the Coalition

The numbers painted a picture of revolt. Liberals' primary hemorrhage—over 30%—stemmed from Ley's exit and Taylor's untested leadership. Combined Coalition vote dipped below 21%, with Nationals gaining modestly but splitting the right-wing bloc. One Nation's haul exceeded Milthorpe's entire 2025 total, fueled by direct transfers from disaffected Liberal voters.

• One Nation: +34.72% swing, dominating irrigation districts like Griffith and Leeton.
• Liberals: -31.23%, worst in Albury-Wodonga urban fringes.
• Independents/Greens/minors: Modest gains, but preferences favored Farley over Milthorpe.

Low turnout amplified swings, as core Coalition voters stayed home while motivated One Nation supporters turned out. Preference flows were decisive: Family First avoided One Nation, but Coalition internal deals couldn't overcome the primary deficit. For context, Wikipedia's detailed tally confirms these figures as preliminary but conclusive.

Water Wars and Rural Woes: The Issues at the Heart of the Upset

Farrer's economy hinges on the Murray-Darling Basin, where irrigation farmers battle allocations, drought, and federal policies. Farley's call for a Royal Commission resonated, tapping frustrations over water buybacks, environmental flows, and Lake Hume levels. Cost-of-living pressures—rising energy, fuel, and groceries—hit regional households hard, with One Nation pledging nuclear power and tax reforms.

Healthcare access in sparse areas, youth exodus to cities, and net-zero skepticism fueled anti-major party sentiment. Voters told polls and exit chats they sought "real change," viewing One Nation as outsiders challenging Canberra elites. As one Albury farmer put it post-poll, "We've got to send a message." The Guardian's analysis highlights regional despair driving the shift.

Photo by Denis Sebastian Tamas on Unsplash

Victory Speeches and Bitter Reactions

In Albury, Farley declared victory to John Farnham's "You're the Voice," saying, "You listened, agreed, and spoke tonight. We're re-carving the letters into Australian democracy." Pauline Hanson, tearful, hailed it as "a win for all Australia," vowing to target more seats and reclaim the nation for "proud Australians."

Liberal leader Angus Taylor conceded: "We've been a party of convenience, not conviction... we must change." Sussan Ley urged humility: "Voters never get it wrong." Milthorpe warned majors: "Communities like ours are sick of being taken for granted." Barnaby Joyce, now One Nation-aligned, mocked Taylor's response.

Breaking History: Farrer's First Non-Coalition MP in 77 Years

Since 1949, Farrer voted Coalition federally. Pre-Ley, Nationals held it through the 1990s. One Nation's win marks their federal lower house debut, echoing state successes but elevating Pauline Hanson's influence. No longer senate-only outliers, they gain a voice in key committees on agriculture and resources.

A Wake-Up Call for Liberals and the Coalition

Taylor's honeymoon ends abruptly. The loss exposes rural vulnerabilities, preference deal pitfalls, and brand fatigue. With Nationals eyeing deals, Coalition unity frays. Analysts predict soul-searching on migration, energy, and regional neglect. As 9News reported in their coverage , it's catastrophic for conservatives.

One Nation's Coming of Age

From Hanson's 1996 debut to senate gains, One Nation now holds a house seat. Farley's win validates populist appeals in the bush, potentially unlocking seats like Hunter or Capricornia. Hanson eyes energy royalties and taxpayer equity in resources.

Ripples Across Australian Politics

Low turnout signals broader disengagement, but the upset warns of minor party surges. Labor watches warily, avoiding the contest strategically. Independents like Milthorpe gain ground but need preferences. Nationally, it questions two-party dominance amid 2028 election looming.

Photo by Jason Mayer on Unsplash

David Farley's Agenda in Parliament

As MP, Farley prioritizes water reform, cost-of-living relief, and ditching 2050 net-zero. His agribusiness expertise positions him for scrutiny of Basin Plan. Crossbench alliances could amplify his voice.

Looking Ahead: Reshaping Regional Conservatism

Farrer's earthquake foreshadows realignments. Coalition must rebuild trust; One Nation expands. Voters demand action on bread-and-butter issues. As Australia navigates economic headwinds, by-elections like this redefine power.