Record numbers reflect deepening public anxiety over safety

South Africa is experiencing an unprecedented increase in applications for new firearm licences, with official police data showing a jump from 99,000 in the 2018/19 financial year to 167,000 by 2024/25. This represents roughly a 70 percent rise over six years and marks the highest annual total on record. The South African Police Service (SAPS) figures underscore a sustained upward trend that accelerated in recent years amid widespread concerns about violent crime and social instability.

The surge is driven primarily by private individuals seeking licences for handguns intended for self-defence. Experts point to a combination of factors including fear of crime, uncertainty around potential legislative changes, and a broader sense of insecurity in many communities. Gun Free South Africa has highlighted how these elements have combined to push more citizens toward formal licensing processes.

Background on firearm regulation under the Firearms Control Act

South Africa’s firearm ownership is governed by the Firearms Control Act of 2000, administered by the South African Police Service through its Central Firearms Registry. Prospective owners must first complete accredited training to obtain a competency certificate before submitting a licence application at a local police station. The process includes extensive background checks, and approvals are not guaranteed. Official government resources outline the steps clearly for applicants seeking to possess a firearm legally.

Renewals and new applications alike have faced well-documented backlogs in recent years, with processing times often exceeding the statutory target of 120 working days. Real-world tracking data from thousands of applications indicates typical timelines of 130 to 180 days or longer, creating frustration for law-abiding citizens navigating the system.

Latest statistics and the scale of the increase

According to SAPS data reported across multiple outlets, new licence applications reached approximately 166,000 to 167,000 in the most recent full financial year. This figure surpasses previous highs and reflects a steady climb over the past 15 years, with a particularly sharp acceleration in the last six. The increase is most pronounced in applications for self-defence purposes rather than hunting or sport.

While exact provincial breakdowns are not always publicly detailed in real time, the national trend points to heightened demand across urban and rural areas alike. Processing bottlenecks at the licensing section have been noted in applicant tracking communities, with certain batches experiencing longer waits than others.

Key drivers behind the surge in applications

Fear of crime stands out as the dominant factor cited by analysts and advocacy groups. High levels of violent crime, including robberies and attacks, have left many residents feeling vulnerable, especially where trust in policing remains low. Unrest events, such as the widespread July 2021 riots, triggered immediate spikes in enquiries at gun dealers, with some reporting walk-in numbers quadrupling overnight.

Policy uncertainty adds another layer. Proposed amendments to the Firearms Control Act have raised the possibility of stricter limits on civilian ownership, including potential removal of self-defence as a valid licensing reason. This has prompted a form of anticipatory action among applicants concerned about future restrictions. Gun Free South Africa executive director Dr Stanley Maphosa has linked the rise directly to these combined pressures of fear, instability, and legislative ambiguity.

Perspectives from Gun Free South Africa and other stakeholders

Dr Stanley Maphosa of Gun Free South Africa has described the trend as a sharp rise fuelled by personal safety concerns and broader social challenges. The organisation advocates for tighter controls while acknowledging the reality of public anxiety. In contrast, gun owner communities and tracking platforms emphasise the frustrations of law-abiding applicants facing delays, arguing that backlogs undermine the very safety the licensing system aims to promote.

SAPS continues to manage the Central Firearms Registry amid these pressures, with calls for improved efficiency in processing. Some applicants report faster movement on newer batches compared to older ones, suggesting operational adjustments, though overall capacity remains strained.

Photo by Mthokozisi Ndlovu on Unsplash

Impact on the licensing system and applicants

The influx has exacerbated existing backlogs, with thousands of applications queued at various stages. Tracking services show that a significant portion remain at the licensing section review phase for extended periods. This creates practical challenges for those seeking legal ownership, including prolonged uncertainty and potential reliance on alternative security measures in the interim.

Despite higher application volumes, actual new firearm acquisitions have not kept pace due to these delays. Estimates suggest South Africa has between two and three million legally licensed firearms, while millions more circulate illegally, contributing to ongoing violence. The gap between applications and approvals highlights systemic strain rather than a simple increase in ownership.

Implications for public safety and crime dynamics

Proponents of stricter controls argue that more licensed firearms could complicate efforts to reduce gun-related incidents if oversight weakens. Historical data from periods of tighter enforcement showed reductions in certain gun crimes and thefts of licensed weapons. Critics counter that illegal firearms, often smuggled or diverted through corruption, remain the primary driver of violence, and restricting legal owners leaves citizens defenceless.

The debate intersects with broader questions of rural safety, farm attacks, and urban crime patterns. Many applicants cite specific local experiences of insecurity as motivation, underscoring how national statistics translate into personal decisions.

Policy debates and potential responses

Discussions around the Firearms Control Amendment Bill continue to polarise views. Supporters seek measures to limit civilian numbers and enhance background checks, while opponents warn that further restrictions on compliant citizens will not address the illegal gun problem. Balanced approaches emphasised in public commentary include streamlining legal processes alongside stronger action against smuggling and corruption within security forces.

Government resources encourage applicants to follow official channels, including contacting the SAPS National Firearms Call Centre for guidance. Improved digital tracking and capacity at the registry are frequently mentioned as needed reforms to handle current volumes without compromising standards.

Challenges in the current environment

Applicants face not only long waits but also the requirement for accredited training and rigorous vetting. Costs associated with applications, training, and renewals add another barrier. In some cases, seasonal slowdowns around holidays further extend timelines, as noted in processing analyses.

Public discourse also touches on the distinction between legal and illegal firearms, with calls for amnesties or buy-back programmes balanced against concerns that such initiatives have had mixed results in the past.

Future outlook and broader context

Without significant policy or administrative changes, the upward trend in applications is likely to persist as long as crime perceptions and legislative uncertainty remain. Economic pressures, including high unemployment, intersect with security concerns, making self-defence a priority for many households.

Stakeholders across the spectrum agree that effective solutions require addressing root causes of crime while maintaining a functional, transparent licensing system. Continued monitoring of SAPS statistics and public engagement on proposed amendments will shape developments in the coming years.

Official information on the application process remains available through government portals, providing a starting point for those considering legal options. South African Government services page on applying for a firearm licence offers detailed steps and contact details.

Photo by louis Schoeman on Unsplash

Understanding the human element in rising demand

Beyond statistics, the surge reflects individual stories of residents seeking greater control over their safety in an environment where state protection feels insufficient. From urban centres to rural areas, the decision to apply often follows personal encounters with crime or media reports of incidents.

Advocacy groups on both sides of the gun debate continue to engage policymakers, highlighting the need for evidence-based approaches that protect citizens without inadvertently empowering illegal networks. The coming months may bring further clarity as new data and legislative discussions unfold.

Additional reporting on the topic appears in recent coverage from major outlets. News24 analysis of the six-year surge provides deeper economic context, while Eyewitness News reporting on fear-driven applications captures on-the-ground perspectives.