Singapore and much of Southeast Asia are facing a heightened threat of severe transboundary haze in the coming months. A Singapore-based think tank has issued a rare high-level warning for the second half of 2026, citing a combination of climate patterns and land-use pressures that could lead to widespread smoke pollution across borders.

Climate Drivers Behind the Elevated Risk

The Singapore Institute of International Affairs released its Haze Outlook 2026 report on June 24, assigning a "red" warning level. This signals substantial potential for severe haze episodes affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. The primary trigger is the expected development of El Niño conditions, which typically bring hotter and drier weather to the southern ASEAN region. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole may compound these effects, extending dry spells into October.

El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon involving warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, disrupts normal rainfall patterns. In Southeast Asia, it often prolongs the dry season, making vegetation more flammable. Historical episodes, such as those in 1997 and 2015, demonstrated how these conditions can spark extensive fires on peatlands and agricultural land.

Additional Pressures from Land Use and Policy

Beyond weather, rising global demand for biofuels is encouraging expansion of plantations, which sometimes involves clearing land through fire. Indonesia, a major source of transboundary smoke, faces budget constraints that could affect fire prevention and enforcement efforts. These factors together create conditions ripe for hotspots to multiply during the traditional dry season from June onward.

Peatland fires are particularly problematic because they burn underground and can smolder for weeks or months, releasing dense smoke that travels hundreds of kilometers on prevailing winds. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre monitors these developments through satellite imagery and issues regular updates on hotspot activity and smoke plumes.

Peak Periods and Geographic Reach

August and September are identified as the months of greatest concern, when dry conditions typically intensify and winds can carry smoke from Sumatra and Kalimantan toward Singapore and Peninsular Malaysia. The risk extends to Brunei as well. While northern ASEAN areas may see mixed rainfall, the southern maritime region faces the most persistent below-normal precipitation forecasts.

Prevailing southeasterly or southwesterly winds during this period facilitate the movement of smoke across national boundaries, turning what might begin as localized fires into a regional air quality crisis.

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Public Health Considerations

Prolonged exposure to haze particles, especially fine particulate matter known as PM2.5, can irritate the eyes, nose, and throat. Vulnerable groups including children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing respiratory or cardiovascular conditions face greater risks of exacerbated symptoms or hospital visits. Past events have seen measurable increases in outpatient attendance for haze-related complaints.

Authorities advise monitoring the Pollutant Standards Index, or PSI, which Singapore uses to communicate 24-hour air quality levels. When readings enter the unhealthy range, recommendations include limiting outdoor activities, using air purifiers indoors, and wearing appropriate masks when exposure cannot be avoided.

Economic and Daily Life Disruptions

Severe haze episodes have historically imposed significant costs through reduced productivity, increased healthcare spending, and impacts on tourism and outdoor industries. Businesses may see higher absenteeism or the need for remote work arrangements. Schools sometimes adjust schedules or close if conditions deteriorate sharply.

Residents often report practical challenges such as difficulty exercising outdoors, disrupted travel plans, and the added expense of protective measures. Supply chains reliant on clear skies or outdoor labor can experience delays. Regional cooperation remains essential because the pollution originates across borders yet affects daily routines in multiple countries simultaneously.

Regional Cooperation Frameworks

The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, adopted in 2002, provides the overarching legal structure for joint action. Indonesia ratified the agreement in 2014, completing the participation of all member states. More recently, the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control has been established to improve policy coordination and response capabilities.

The National Environment Agency in Singapore maintains continuous surveillance through its haze portal and collaborates with regional meteorological services. These mechanisms allow for early warnings and coordinated mitigation when hotspots emerge.

Preparedness Steps for Individuals and Communities

Households can prepare by stocking up on N95 or equivalent masks, ensuring air conditioning filters are clean, and identifying indoor spaces with good air filtration. Families with members who have health conditions should consult medical professionals about personalized plans.

Communities benefit from staying informed via official channels such as the NEA website and mobile alerts. Simple actions like avoiding open burning and reporting suspicious fire activity contribute to prevention at the grassroots level.

Photo by (Augustin-Foto) Jonas Augustin on Unsplash

Longer-Term Solutions and Outlook

Sustainable land management practices, including stricter enforcement against illegal burning and incentives for peatland restoration, offer the most durable path forward. International support for alternative livelihoods in fire-prone areas can reduce reliance on slash-and-burn agriculture.

While the immediate outlook carries elevated risk, ongoing investments in satellite monitoring, community firefighting teams, and cross-border information sharing provide reasons for cautious optimism. Strengthened implementation of existing agreements could lessen the severity of future episodes even under challenging climate conditions.

Expert and Official Perspectives

Analysts emphasize that no single factor explains the risk; rather, it arises from the interplay of weather anomalies, economic incentives, and institutional capacity. Officials across the region stress the importance of proactive measures rather than reactive responses once smoke has already spread.

Public awareness campaigns and transparent communication help build resilience, encouraging residents to take protective steps early rather than waiting for conditions to worsen.