In the volatile landscape of transatlantic politics, a once-celebrated alliance between U.S. President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has fractured dramatically, signaling deeper cracks in the relationship between Trump and Europe's far-right movements. What began as a mutual admiration society, marked by effusive praise and strategic summits, has devolved into public acrimony amid the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and its ripple effects across the continent. Meloni's refusal to fully align with Trump's aggressive military posture in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with her staunch defense of Pope Leo XIV against Trump's barbs, has positioned her as the vanguard of a broader European populist retreat from the American leader. This Trump-Europe far-right rift underscores the limits of ideological kinship when national interests and economic survival collide.

The fallout comes at a precarious moment for Europe, where the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026 has triggered an energy shockwave. Brent crude oil prices have surged beyond $120 per barrel, liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are stranded, and European gas prices have spiked by up to 60 percent in some markets. Italian factories, heavily reliant on affordable energy imports, are grinding to a halt, with analysts warning of imminent recession risks and inflation surges that could erode public support for any leader perceived as too cozy with Washington.

From Mar-a-Lago Handshakes to Diplomatic Firestorm

The Trump-Meloni bromance traces back to late 2024, when they first met at the Notre Dame Cathedral reopening in Paris. Trump dubbed her a "real live-wire" full of energy, while Meloni saw in him a kindred spirit challenging the post-war liberal order. By January 2025, she visited Mar-a-Lago amid tensions over an Italian journalist's detention in Iran, earning Trump's endorsement as a leader who had "taken Europe by storm." Their rapport deepened through White House visits, G7 side chats in Canada, NATO summits, and a Gaza peace summit in Egypt, where Trump introduced her as a "very strong leader" and even plugged her autobiography on social media.

Even as early 2026 brought subtle strains—Meloni floated nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for Ukraine efforts, only for him to pivot when it went elsewhere—their bond held. But the Iran war changed everything. Iran's retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes included mining and blockading the Hormuz Strait on March 4, 2026, disrupting 20 percent of global oil flows. Trump demanded NATO allies deploy minesweepers and naval assets to clear the passage, calling the alliance a "paper tiger" when met with hesitation.

Italy, under Meloni, blocked U.S. aircraft from landing at the crucial Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily and suspended automatic renewal of its defense cooperation pact with Israel. This defiance prompted Trump's explosive interview with Corriere della Sera on April 14, 2026, where he expressed shock: "I thought she had courage, but I was wrong." He accused her of being fine with Iran acquiring nuclear weapons that could "blow up Italy in two minutes."

The Pope Criticism: A Catholic Red Line

Compounding the military discord was Trump's April 2026 attack on Pope Leo XIV, whom he labeled "weak on crime" and accused of catering to the "radical left" by opposing the Iran intervention. The pontiff's calls for peace and condemnation of war crossed a sacred threshold for Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party draws heavily from Italy's devout Catholic base. She fired back: "The pope is the head of the Catholic Church... it is right and normal for him to call for peace and condemn all forms of war." Labeling Trump's remarks "unacceptable," she refused to bow to politicians dictating to religious leaders.

Italian media united in support, framing the episode as a sacrilege that transcended politics. A recent poll showed a strong majority of Italians backing Meloni over Trump in the dispute, boosting her domestic standing amid economic woes.

For context, the Vatican has consistently advocated de-escalation in the Middle East, a stance resonating across Catholic-majority Europe. Meloni's pivot not only safeguarded her voter base but also aligned her with France and Spain, which similarly rebuffed U.S. overflight requests. Euronews details this timeline, highlighting how personal rapport yielded to geopolitical realities.

Economic Tsunami from Hormuz: Europe's Pain Point

The Hormuz blockade's economic toll on Europe is staggering. With the strait handling one-fifth of world oil, the disruption has forced rerouting of tankers around Africa, adding weeks to voyages and billions in costs. European refineries face shortages, chemical plants curtail output, and households brace for utility bills doubling in some regions. Italy, a net energy importer, reports factory shutdowns in steel and automotive sectors, with GDP growth forecasts slashed by 1.5 percentage points for 2026.

IMF analysis warns of prolonged high prices even post-resolution, as damaged infrastructure and insurance hikes linger. Gas prices, already volatile post-Ukraine invasion, have jumped 60 percent, fueling protests in Germany and France. Meloni's stance—prioritizing national interest over U.S. demands—resonates as pragmatic amid voter anger at Trump's "America First" approach exacerbating the crisis. The IMF outlines these cascading effects.

Ripples Across Europe's Far-Right: Orban's Fall and Le Pen's Caution

Meloni's break is symptomatic of a wider Trump-Europe far-right rift. Hungary's Viktor Orban, Trump's most vocal European cheerleader, suffered a shock defeat in April 13 parliamentary elections despite endorsements and a pre-vote JD Vance visit. Analysts attribute the loss partly to voter revulsion at Budapest's U.S. proximity amid soaring energy bills and Trump's Middle East adventurism—associations that "hung like millstones" around Orban's neck.

In France, Marine Le Pen instructed National Rally lawmakers on April 15 to "keep our distance" from Trump, citing his unpopularity and electoral liabilities ahead of 2027 polls. Germany's AfD, once hopeful for Trump-backed legitimacy, now warns against "ostentatious friendship" before September regionals. Even as some like AfD's Alice Weidel defend ties, the consensus shifts: Trump's toxicity outweighs ideological gains.

• Orban (Hungary): Defeat accelerates retreat; anti-EU playbook survives.
• Le Pen (France): Cautious since 2021 Capitol riot; views U.S. links as misinterpreted liability.
• AfD (Germany): Distancing for elections; initial Trump hype faded.

Politico captures this populist reckoning.

NATO Strains and Transatlantic Realignment

Trump's NATO skepticism—threatening withdrawal if allies don't contribute to Hormuz clearance—exposes alliance fissures. Meloni affirms Italy's NATO commitments but prioritizes multilateralism, signing joint European statements on Ukraine sovereignty while rejecting unilateral U.S. demands. This echoes broader European hedging: increased defense spending, Arctic coordination urged by Italy, and EU trade pivots away from U.S. tariffs.

Stakeholders from Brussels to Rome decry Trump's transactionalism, with one Italian diplomat noting "uncoordinated tones through channels." Future outlook: a more autonomous Europe, where far-right leaders like Meloni balance sovereignty with unity against external shocks.

Domestic Boost for Meloni Amid Crisis

Paradoxically, the rift bolsters Meloni at home. Polls show unified Italian support against Trump's Pope attack, and her Hormuz stance frames her as defender against foreign overreach. Recent referendum losses on judicial reform are overshadowed by economic realism, positioning her for 2027 resilience.

Implications for European Populism and Global Order

This rift challenges the notion of a global populist axis. Europe's far-right, empowered by Trump's 2025 return, now confronts his foreign policy as electoral poison—blamed for wars, prices, and isolation. Experts foresee selective distancing: ideological nods persist, but practical alliances fray.

Actionable insights for observers: Monitor French and German polls; track EU energy diversification (LNG terminals, renewables acceleration); watch NATO summits for recommitment signals. As Meloni pivots to "allies, not vassals," Europe asserts multipolarity in a Trump-defined era.

Photo by Christian Lue on Unsplash

Outlook: A New Populist Calculus

Looking ahead, the Trump-Europe far-right rift may endure, with Meloni's break inspiring pragmatic nationalism over blind loyalty. Energy resilience, Catholic cohesion, and electoral math dictate caution. Transatlantic ties persist via shared threats like China, but on equal terms—reshaping alliances born of 2016's populist wave.