UK Young People Face Growing Risk of Long-Term Detachment from Work and Learning

Nearly one million young people aged 16 to 24 in the United Kingdom are not in education, employment or training, according to the latest official figures. This represents 13.5 percent of the age group and marks the highest level in more than a decade. A new government-commissioned interim report warns that without urgent intervention the figure could climb to 1.25 million, or one in six young people, by 2031.

Definition and Scale of the NEET Challenge

NEET stands for Not in Education, Employment or Training. The term covers young people who are either unemployed and actively seeking work or economically inactive and not looking for employment. Recent data from the Office for National Statistics show 1,012,000 individuals in this category between January and March 2026. The proportion has risen steadily since 2021, reversing earlier improvements that followed the 2008 financial crisis.

The issue extends beyond short-term unemployment. Nearly 60 percent of those classified as NEET are economically inactive rather than unemployed. Six in ten have never held a paid job, a sharp increase from four in ten in 2005. This detachment often begins earlier than age 16, with signs of disengagement visible in secondary school years.

The Milburn Interim Report and Its Core Warnings

Former Labour health secretary Alan Milburn led the independent review into young people and work. His interim findings, published on 28 May 2026, describe a “perfect storm” of health, labour market and systemic factors. Milburn states: “We are at risk of a lost generation.” The report estimates the annual economic cost at £125 billion, covering lost tax revenue, higher welfare spending and reduced productivity.

The analysis highlights that detachment is no longer temporary for many. Of today’s 24-year-old NEETs, 45 percent have never worked. Long-term scarring effects include lower lifetime earnings of up to £300,000 for those who later re-enter the labour market. The review notes that Britain’s NEET rate now exceeds that of most comparable European countries, with only Romania recording a higher figure in 2025.

Key Drivers Behind the Rise

Multiple interconnected factors contribute to the increase. The share of NEET young people citing a work-limiting health condition has risen 70 percent over the past decade, reaching 44 percent in recent data. Mental health conditions, including anxiety and depression, now account for more than four in ten of these cases among disabled NEETs.

Labour market changes have reduced entry points. The number of lower- and medium-skilled jobs has fallen by around 1.6 million over 20 years. Vacancies in sectors such as hospitality have halved in four years. Apprenticeship starts for young people have declined by more than 35 percent since 2017. Recruitment processes have become more automated and remote, creating additional barriers for those without prior experience.

Employer National Insurance contribution increases and rises in the minimum wage have also raised the cost of hiring entry-level staff, according to analysis from bodies such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The education system has absorbed some pressure by keeping more young people in study longer, but participation in further education and apprenticeships has weakened relative to higher education routes.

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Economic and Social Consequences

The £125 billion annual cost exceeds current national spending on education. Individual impacts include reduced confidence, poorer health outcomes and diminished future earnings. Young people who spend time NEET face higher risks of long-term unemployment and lower wages later in life.

Societally, the trend exacerbates labour shortages in an ageing population. It also increases pressure on public services through higher benefits claims and health costs. The report notes that just £1 is spent on employment support for every £25 spent on benefits for this group, highlighting an imbalance in current spending priorities.

Stakeholder Perspectives and Lived Experiences

Young people surveyed in the review overwhelmingly want to work or train, with 84 percent expressing this aspiration. Many describe repeated rejections or lack of responses to applications, creating a cycle of discouragement. Employers report willingness to hire but cite concerns over pastoral support needs and work-readiness among some candidates.

Local authorities, charities and mayors consulted during the review point to fragmented services. Early intervention in schools often arrives too late, and careers guidance remains uneven. Health services frequently categorise individuals as unfit without exploring supported participation options.

International Context and Lessons

The United Kingdom has fallen behind peer nations. Countries such as the Netherlands maintain NEET rates below 5 percent through consistent multi-agency approaches and strong vocational pathways. The review emphasises that the problem is solvable with coordinated action across education, health, welfare and the labour market.

Comparative data show that nations investing in early identification of at-risk young people and integrated support achieve better outcomes. The UK’s post-pandemic rise in health-related inactivity stands out as a distinguishing factor compared with earlier recessions.

Current Policy Landscape and Gaps

The government launched the independent review in late 2025 following concerns over rising youth inactivity. Existing programmes have focused primarily on supply-side measures such as skills training and job-search support. The Milburn report argues these are insufficient without addressing demand-side barriers and systemic coordination.

Previous initiatives have delivered disjointed results. A full set of recommendations is expected later in 2026, but the interim findings call for a “system reset” that aligns incentives across departments and reduces the pastoral burden on employers.

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Potential Pathways Forward

Experts and the review itself point to several evidence-based directions. Earlier identification of risk factors in schools, combined with targeted support, can prevent disengagement. Integrated health and employment pathways that assume capability rather than incapacity show promise for those with health conditions.

Strengthening entry-level job creation, simplifying recruitment for small employers and expanding quality apprenticeships represent labour-market focused measures. Greater investment in careers guidance and work experience during secondary education could also narrow the gap between qualifications and employer needs.

Multi-agency collaboration involving local authorities, employers and youth services has delivered results in targeted programmes elsewhere. Sustained funding and clear accountability metrics would help scale such approaches nationally.

Outlook and the Case for Action

The interim report frames the situation as both a moral and economic imperative. With an ageing population, maximising the participation of every young person becomes essential for sustainable growth. Failure to act risks entrenching a cohort with permanently reduced opportunities and higher long-term public costs.

Milburn concludes that the current tolerance of near-10 percent NEET rates over 25 years is no longer acceptable. The data present a clear warning that the trajectory can be reversed only through deliberate, coordinated change across multiple systems.