The Monumental Tracy Arm Landslide and Its Seismic Wake-Up Call

On the crisp morning of August 10, 2025, at precisely 5:26 a.m. Alaska Daylight Time, a colossal mass of over 64 million cubic meters of rock—equivalent to more than 25 times the volume of the Great Pyramid of Giza—catapulted from the steep slopes above the South Sawyer Glacier terminus into the narrow waters of Tracy Arm fjord. This cataclysmic event, unfolding in one of Alaska's most picturesque yet perilous glacial inlets about 50 miles southeast of Juneau, unleashed a megatsunami that surged an astonishing 481 meters (1,578 feet) up the opposing fjord wall, marking it as the second-highest wave runup ever documented.

A groundbreaking study published in the prestigious journal Science has now meticulously reconstructed this near-apocalyptic sequence, led by geoscientist Dan Shugar from the University of Calgary and co-authored by experts from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute (UAF GI), including Michael West and Ezgi Karasözen. This international collaboration harnessed an arsenal of cutting-edge geophysical data to not only confirm the landslide as the unequivocal trigger but also illuminate the precarious interplay between rapid glacial retreat and human activity in fjord environments.

Unraveling the Anatomy of the Landslide

The Tracy Arm landslide initiated as a classic rock wedge slide, where tension cracks along pre-existing fractures allowed a massive block to detach from the oversteepened mountainside. As it accelerated downslope at speeds exceeding 70 meters per second, the mass fragmented into a rock avalanche, pulverizing into debris that plunged over 1 kilometer vertically before slamming into the glacier-backed waters below. Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from pre-event ArcticDEM and post-event WorldView-2 satellite imagery quantified the headscarp—a sheer drop of 1,000 meters—and the debris field that reshaped the fjord floor.

Preliminary estimates pegged the subaerial volume at a minimum of 63.5 million cubic meters, but seismic inversions suggest the total mobilized material, including entrained water and submarine extensions, could reach 142 million cubic meters. This dwarfs the 30-million-cubic-meter slide that fueled the 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami, underscoring the unprecedented scale driven by modern environmental shifts.

• Headscarp dimensions: 1.4 km long, up to 240 m deep.
• Travel distance: Over 2 km along a complex path with basal extension.
• Impact velocity: Generating forces akin to a magnitude 5.4 earthquake, detectable globally.

The Megatsunami's Fury: From Splash to Runup

Upon impact, the landslide displaced a primordial wall of water, birthing an initial breaking wave towering 100 meters high that rocketed across the 3.3-kilometer-wide fjord at breakneck speeds. Nonlinear shallow-water tsunami models, calibrated using the Celeris simulation software, replicated this chaos: the wave amplified dramatically in the confined geometry, cresting at 481 meters ± 7.6 meters above sea level on the south-facing slopes, stripping forests to a precise trimline visible in field surveys conducted months later.

Far-field effects rippled outward: kayakers 55 kilometers away in Harbor Island lost gear to sudden currents around 5:45 a.m., while a NOAA tide gauge in Juneau registered 36 cm perturbations arriving an hour later. Astonishingly, a 66-second-period seiche—a standing wave trapped in the fjord—persisted for 36 hours, observable via NASA's SWOT satellite and producing narrowband seismic signals worldwide, a phenomenon recorded only once before.

This long-lived oscillation highlights how landslide-induced tsunamis (LITs) differ from tectonic ones, often generating prolonged, basin-specific hazards.

Precursory Signals: A Window for Warnings?

Retrospective analysis revealed a symphony of foreshocks: microseismicity ramped up days prior, with event rates exploding exponentially in the final six hours and peaking one hour before cataclysm. Template-matching algorithms on seismic waveforms from the Alaska Earthquake Center pinpointed these as fracture propagations within the failing wedge. Infrasound from five regional stations corroborated the acceleration.

Yet, in real-time, the sparse monitoring network—optimized for earthquakes and volcanoes—missed these harbingers. The UAF GI team advocates for automated seismic searches targeting narrowband signals from seiches and landslides, potentially enabling minutes-long warnings crucial for evacuating cruise liners.

Photo by Brianna Marble on Unsplash

Research Methods: Piecing Together the Puzzle

The study's rigor stems from multi-proxy integration. High-resolution satellite stereo imagery yielded DEMs for volumetric diffs and runup profiling. Global seismic networks furnished landslide force histories via waveform modeling. Tide gauges and eyewitness logs anchored tsunami simulations, while SWOT altimetry captured the seiche's sea-surface dance. Climate attribution leveraged historical glacier records and detection-attribution models, quantifying anthropogenic warming's role at 1.1 ± 0.3°C in Southeast Alaska summers since 1875.

Such interdisciplinary fusion, spearheaded by universities like UAF and UCalgary, exemplifies modern geohazards research.

Climate Change: The Underlying Culprit

South Sawyer Glacier thinned 100-130 meters from 2013-2022, retreating at 11-14 m/year, debuttressing the slope and oversteepening it through glacial undercutting. This mirrors global patterns where warming elevates snowlines, accelerating mass loss. The study attributes the observed trends unequivocally to human-induced climate change, warning of escalating LIT risks in deglaciating fjords worldwide.

For full details on the climate analysis, see the published paper.

Historical Parallels: Lituya Bay and Beyond

The 1958 Lituya Bay LIT, spawned by a magnitude 7.8 quake mobilizing 30 million m³, hit 524 m runup—still the record. Tracy Arm's spontaneous trigger and larger volume position it as a benchmark for non-seismic megatsunamis. Similar events in Taan Fiord (2015, 193 m runup) and Greenland's recent outbursts signal a new era of glacier-linked perils.

• Lituya Bay: Earthquake-triggered, 524 m.
• Taan Fiord: 300 million m³, 193 m runup.
• Tracy Arm: Climate-preconditioned, 481 m.

Risks to Human Ventures: Cruise Ships in the Crosshairs

Tracy Arm hosts over 20 cruise ships daily in peak season, ferrying 1.6 million passengers in 2025—a 60% rise since 2016. The National Geographic Venture, anchored nearby, endured fierce currents but escaped catastrophe due to timing (pre-dawn) and distance. Post-event, operators rerouted 2026 itineraries. The UAF GI warns of 'pure chaos' potential, urging fjord-specific tsunami scenarios and vessel protocols. For USGS event data, visit here.

Photo by David Trinks on Unsplash

Pathways Forward: Enhancing Monitoring and Mitigation

Lessons from Tracy Arm propel academic imperatives: deploy dense seismic arrays in glacial zones, integrate AI for microseismicity detection, and refine LIT models for real-time forecasting. Universities like UAF are pioneering these, while stakeholders—from Alaska's coastal towns to polar tourism—must prioritize hazard mapping. Climate mitigation remains paramount to stem glacier retreat.

The UAF GI's insights are detailed here.

Academic Frontiers: Opportunities in Geohazards Research

This event galvanizes higher education's role in hazard science. Postdocs and faculty at institutions like UAF GI and UCalgary are recruiting for LIT modeling, seismic forensics, and paleotsunami studies. With Arctic risks mounting, careers in glaciology, geophysics, and climate attribution offer profound impact. Explore Alaska Earthquake Center resources for deeper dives.