Global Research Output Surges to New Heights with AI Driving Volume and Shifting Centres of Gravity
Global research publications in science and technology reached unprecedented levels in 2025, with AI-related work accounting for a growing share of the total. According to the Stanford HAI AI Index 2026, AI publications in computer science and related fields nearly tripled between 2020 and 2023, climbing from approximately 102,000 to over 242,000. China produced the largest share of AI papers at 23.2 percent, followed closely by the United States, while citation counts and patent filings showed similar patterns of rapid expansion.
The Nature Index 2026 Research Leaders tables, released in June 2026 and covering 2025 data, confirm China’s continued dominance in high-quality output. The country’s adjusted Share rose 17 percent to 32,122, placing eight Chinese institutions in the global top 10. Asian neighbours including South Korea and Singapore also posted gains, while several Western institutions saw relative declines.
China’s Ascendancy in Publication Volume Reshapes the Global Map
China’s share of global AI publications expanded from under 5 percent in 2000 to nearly 36 percent by 2025, according to bibliometric analyses of Web of Science and DBLP data. This surge reflects sustained government investment in research infrastructure, talent pipelines, and strategic priorities such as semiconductors, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Chinese researchers now lead in raw volume across computer science, engineering, and applied fields, with particular strength in industrial robot installations and patent grants.
Institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University consistently rank among the world’s most productive. The shift has prompted Western universities to reassess collaboration strategies amid geopolitical tensions, while bridge nations in Southeast Asia and the Middle East position themselves as intermediaries.
United States Maintains Edge in High-Impact and Frontier Research
Despite trailing in sheer volume, the United States continues to lead in highly cited AI papers and the development of frontier models. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index reports that U.S.-based institutions produced 40 notable AI models in 2024 compared with 15 from China. Private AI investment in the United States reached $285.9 billion in 2025, more than 23 times China’s private figure. The performance gap between top U.S. and Chinese models has narrowed to within 2.7 percent on key benchmarks as of March 2026.
Harvard, MIT, and Stanford remain prominent in the Nature Index, though their relative positions have slipped as Asian institutions advance. The U.S. also attracts the largest share of global AI usage on platforms such as Claude, accounting for 21.6 percent of total activity.
Asian Neighbours Accelerate with Targeted Strategies
South Korea climbed to seventh place in the Nature Index 2026 country rankings, overtaking Canada, with a 4.1 percent increase in adjusted Share. The government directs 44 percent of its research budget toward “pioneering” technologies including AI and quantum computing, supported by a strong industrial base in semiconductors and robotics. Japan posted a 9 percent decrease in Share but is adapting through initiatives such as the ASPIRE program, which funds top scientists collaborating with select international partners on AI and biotechnology.
Singapore rose to 16th place with a 7 percent gain, benefiting from high per-capita AI adoption rates exceeding 60 percent. These countries demonstrate how focused national strategies can translate research investment into measurable output gains even as overall Western dominance erodes.
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Emerging Regions and the Widening North-South Divide
While Global North adoption of generative AI grew nearly twice as fast as in the Global South, select emerging economies show pockets of rapid progress. The United Arab Emirates and Chile recorded some of the fastest growth in AI engineering skills. India ranks among the top five countries in AI publications and third in patent filings. However, the overall gap in adoption between high- and low-income regions widened from 9.8 to 10.6 percentage points in 2025.
Data centres, critical infrastructure for AI training and inference, remain heavily concentrated. The United States accounts for 45 percent of global data-centre electricity consumption, followed by China at 25 percent. This geographic clustering reinforces existing advantages for leading research nations.
AI Tools Reshape Research Practices Across Disciplines
Surveys of researchers indicate dramatic uptake of AI tools. One 2025 Wiley study found 84 percent of researchers now use AI for any aspect of their work, up from 57 percent the previous year. Usage for research and publication tasks rose to 62 percent. Productivity gains appear in specific domains: AI-assisted coding and literature review can increase output by double-digit percentages, while generative models accelerate hypothesis generation and data analysis.
These tools contribute directly to the volume increases observed in the Nature Index and AI Index. At the same time, concerns about reproducibility, citation integrity, and over-reliance on synthetic content are prompting new guidelines from funders and journals.
Geopolitical Forces and the Bifurcation of Collaboration Networks
International AI research collaboration has evolved through distinct phases: unipolar Western-led networks (2000–2009), China’s rise and bipolar emergence (2010–2016), peak collaboration (2017–2021), and strategic bifurcation (2022–2025). Network analysis of 1.4 million publications shows density increasing overall, yet collaboration remains concentrated around core actors. China now dominates collaborative volume, while the United States retains structural brokerage influence.
Policy interventions and techno-industrial strategies increasingly shape partnerships. Bridge countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are positioning themselves to maintain open channels amid tightening export controls and security reviews.
Implications for Universities, Talent, and the Research Workforce
The geographical redistribution of research output is reshaping academic labour markets. Universities in Asia are expanding faculty hiring and graduate programs in AI-related fields, while some Western institutions report slower growth in international PhD enrolments. The number of AI researchers and developers moving to the United States has declined 89 percent since 2017. At the same time, demand for AI-literate faculty and research support staff continues to rise globally.
Institutions that successfully integrate AI into research workflows while upholding rigorous standards of integrity and ethics are gaining competitive advantage in rankings and funding competitions.
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Future Outlook: Sustained Growth with Greater Multipolarity
Projections indicate continued expansion of global research output, driven by AI capabilities that show no signs of plateauing. Industry now produces over 90 percent of notable frontier models, and training datasets double in size roughly every eight months. Data-centre electricity consumption is expected to more than double by 2030, underscoring the infrastructure demands of further growth.
The landscape is likely to become more multipolar. South Korea, Singapore, and Japan are demonstrating that targeted investment and industrial linkages can yield disproportionate gains. Emerging economies that build local capacity in data, compute, and talent may narrow the adoption gap. Policymakers and university leaders face the dual challenge of fostering innovation while managing geopolitical risks and ensuring equitable access to the benefits of AI-augmented research.
