Overview of 2025 Tertiary Enrolments in New Zealand
New Zealand's tertiary education sector recorded a modest overall decline in formal provider-based enrolments in 2025, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Education. Total student numbers fell by 1.1 percent to 395,095, down from 399,685 the previous year. This shift reflects contrasting trends between domestic and international students, with implications for universities, polytechnics, and other providers across the country.
Domestic enrolments decreased by 3.5 percent to 335,205, while international student numbers rose by 15 percent to 59,890. The international recovery continues a post-pandemic rebound, though figures remain below the 2019 peak of around 61,040 in the formal tertiary sector. These patterns highlight both challenges in sustaining domestic participation and opportunities from growing global interest in New Zealand higher education.
University Sector Leads Growth Amid Broader Declines
Among sub-sectors, universities stood out with overall enrolments increasing by 3.7 percent. Domestic numbers at universities rose 1.5 percent, while international enrolments surged 14 percent. This positions universities as key beneficiaries of international recovery, with eight institutions collectively hosting approximately 38,025 international students in 2025.
In contrast, Te Pūkenga (polytechnics and industry training) saw total enrolments drop 4.3 percent, driven by a 5.1 percent decline in domestic students despite a 5.4 percent rise in international numbers. Private training establishments experienced an 8.5 percent overall fall, with domestic numbers down 14 percent offset partially by 28 percent international growth. Wānanga enrolments dipped 1.3 percent overall.
These divergences underscore the resilience of university offerings in attracting both local and overseas learners, particularly at bachelor's and postgraduate levels where international students concentrate.
International Student Recovery and Broader Context
Beyond formal tertiary provider data, Education New Zealand reported 92,580 international students enrolled across all education providers in 2025, up 11 percent from 2024. Universities accounted for a growing share, reaching 41 percent of total international enrolments. Top source countries included China at 34 percent and India at 14 percent of the broader international cohort.
This rebound supports regional economies and campus diversity, with universities seeing particular strength in master's programmes. Stakeholders note sustained efforts in quality-focused recruitment amid global competition.
Demographic Patterns in Participation
Gender breakdowns show women continuing to form the majority of domestic tertiary students, with female enrolments holding steady or slightly increasing in several categories. Male domestic numbers declined more sharply. Participation rates by ethnicity reveal ongoing disparities, with Māori and Pacific students showing higher rates in some measures but lower overall attainment in university entrance pathways compared to other groups.
Age profiles indicate strong representation in the 20-24 and 25-39 brackets for domestic students, while international learners skew younger. These patterns inform targeted support initiatives under the Tertiary Education Strategy 2025-2030, which emphasises equitable access and outcomes.
Implications for University Administrators and Planning
The mixed 2025 results present opportunities and pressures for New Zealand's eight universities. Growth in international numbers aids revenue diversification and global rankings positioning, yet domestic declines signal the need for enhanced outreach to school leavers and mature learners. Administrators are increasingly focusing on flexible delivery modes and industry-aligned programmes to boost retention and completion rates.
Regional institutions face unique challenges in sustaining enrolments amid demographic shifts, prompting collaborations and programme reviews. Data-driven decision-making, drawing on Ministry of Education insights, helps align offerings with labour market demands.
Perspectives from Stakeholders and Equity Considerations
University leaders and sector bodies highlight the importance of maintaining high-quality experiences to sustain international appeal. Domestic participation concerns centre on affordability, awareness of pathways, and support for underrepresented groups including Māori, Pacific, and rural students.
The Tertiary Education Strategy 2025-2030 prioritises lifting outcomes for these cohorts through targeted investments and partnerships. Equity remains a core focus, with calls for improved transitions from secondary education and expanded work-integrated learning options.
Challenges and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest continued pressure on domestic numbers in the short term, while international recovery offers a buffer. Economic factors, visa policies, and global events will influence trajectories. The strategy's emphasis on skills alignment and lifelong learning positions the sector for adaptation.
Providers are exploring micro-credentials and stackable qualifications to attract diverse learners. Sustained monitoring through Education Counts data will guide responses to emerging patterns in participation and completion.
Opportunities for PhD-Track Researchers and Academics
For those pursuing academic careers, the statistics underscore demand for expertise in areas supporting international student success, equity initiatives, and data analytics. Universities expanding postgraduate offerings create pathways for researchers focused on higher education policy and student outcomes.
Engagement with sector reports and strategy documents equips job seekers with insights into institutional priorities, enhancing applications for roles in teaching, research, and administration.
Photo by Kishan Modi on Unsplash
Actionable Insights for the Sector
Institutions can leverage these figures to refine recruitment strategies, invest in student support services, and foster partnerships with secondary schools. Policymakers may consider incentives for domestic participation in high-demand fields. International students benefit from New Zealand's reputation for quality and safety, with providers encouraged to maintain welcoming environments.
Regular analysis of sub-sector and demographic data supports proactive planning, ensuring the tertiary system contributes effectively to national skills needs and economic goals.
