The Surge in Ontario High School Grades: A 15-Year Trend Accelerating

Ontario's high school students are achieving higher Grade 12 averages than ever before, a phenomenon that has profound implications for university admissions across Canada. Over the past 15 years, the average marks of incoming first-year university students have climbed steadily, with a sharp acceleration during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This rise, often attributed to grade inflation—the practice of assigning higher grades than a student's work might traditionally warrant—has reshaped the competitive landscape for spots in top programs at institutions like the University of Toronto (U of T), McMaster University, Western University, and the University of Waterloo.

The Ontario Secondary School Diploma (OSSD), the standard credential for high school graduation in the province, bases grades primarily on teacher assessments, coursework, and sometimes exams. While this system aims to reflect curriculum mastery, recent data reveals a clustering of marks in the high 80s, 90s, and even into the low 100s for some students. For context, pre-pandemic averages hovered around the mid-70s for many boards, but Toronto District School Board (TDSB) figures show a jump from 71% to 77% in just two years starting in 2020.

This trend isn't isolated; Council of Ontario Universities (COU) data from 2021 indicates typical entry averages between 85.4% and 92.9%, up from 82.2% to 90.4% in 2017. By 2025, reports suggest even more students entering with 90%+ averages, fueling an "arms race" among applicants.

Root Causes Behind the Grade Inflation Phenomenon

Several factors contribute to this sustained rise in high school grades. Pre-pandemic drivers include curriculum reforms de-streaming applied and academic courses to promote equity, increased immigration of academically focused families, and a shift toward outcome-based grading where students can redo assignments multiple times. The pandemic supercharged these trends: Ontario's Ministry of Education directed schools not to let marks drop below pre-COVID levels in spring 2020, leading to widespread adoption of alternative assessments like projects over high-stakes exams.

Educators, facing remote learning challenges, often used grades motivationally to encourage participation, resulting in spikes such as the proportion of Grade 9 students with 90+ averages doubling from 12% to 23% between 2018-19 and 2020-21. Post-pandemic, these practices persisted due to competitive pressures—schools inflate to help students gain admission to prestigious programs, creating a cycle experts call dysfunctional.

• Policy protections during disruptions prevented grade declines.
• Teacher discretion in assessments favored higher marks for engagement.
• Parental and student demands for competitive edges via tutoring and course retakes.

Contrast this with standardized tests like the Education Quality and Accountability Office (EQAO) assessments, where math proficiency lags despite rising report cards, highlighting a disconnect between perceived and actual achievement.

Key Statistics: From 80s to 90s and Beyond

Data paints a clear picture of escalation. At McMaster University, first-year students with 90+ averages rose from 50.4% in 2017 to 63.9% in 2020. U of T's engineering program saw 95+ averages increase from 52.5% to 68.4% in the same period, while Queen's commerce program jumped from 31.5% to 43.5%. Nearly half of admits at Waterloo and McMaster hit 95+ by 2021, a trend continuing into 2025-2026 cycles.

Ontario Universities' Application Centre (OUAC) handles centralized applications, transmitting Grade 12 U/M (University/University Preparation) marks directly from schools. No province-wide adjustments exist, leaving universities to interpret in context. Competitive programs now demand 92-98% for consideration, far above published minimums like U of T's mid-80s or McMaster's 88%.

University Responses: Beyond Grades to Holistic Reviews

Ontario universities are adapting. While minimum Ontario Secondary School Diploma requirements remain—six 4U/M courses including English (ENG4U)—admission is fiercely competitive. Leaders like Waterloo use the Admission Information Form (AIF) to assess experiences, while U of T, McMaster, and Western employ essays, video interviews, and resumes for programs like engineering, business (e.g., Rotman, Ivey), and health sciences.

Some apply school-specific adjustments; Waterloo equates a 95% from one high school to 85% from another based on historical performance. Published averages like Western's ~88% entering mask true cutoffs pushing 95%+.Explore higher ed jobs at these institutions amid evolving standards.

The 2025 Supporting Students and Children Act mandates merit-based policies, prompting consultations for transparency.

Impacts on Students: Heightened Competition and Burnout

Students face rejection despite stellar marks—a 96% applicant denied U of T business, or 92% missing McMaster health sciences. This drives burnout from endless tutoring, summer courses, and retakes. University first-to-second-year retention holds, but incoming students struggle more, with larger grade drops signaling preparedness gaps.

Alternatives emerge: colleges first for transfers, or mature student paths. For career planning, higher ed career advice resources can guide post-secondary choices.

Stakeholder Perspectives: Teachers, Universities, and Policymakers

Teachers cite motivational grading amid disruptions; experts like Sachin Maharaj call it an arms race. Dwayne Benjamin (U of T) warns of distorted preparedness signals. The Ministry defends evidence-based grading, while Fraser Institute urges ending inflation.

Universities emphasize relative rankings over absolutes. Read more in this CBC analysis.

Real-World Case Studies from Ontario Universities

At U of T's Rotman Commerce, applicants now need near-perfect marks plus stellar essays. McMaster's engineering saw entry 90+ proportions soar, prompting video assessments. Waterloo's co-op programs use AIF scores heavily, rewarding leadership over raw GPA.

A TDSB student with 94% was waitlisted at Western Ivey, opting for college transfer—common now. For faculty insights, visit Rate My Professor.

Challenges and Risks of Persistent Grade Inflation

• Mismatched skills: High school 95% drops to uni 70s, raising dropout risks.
• Inequity: Private tutoring advantages wealthier students.
• System strain: Universities flooded with qualified applicants, lengthening processes.

EQAO math gains (e.g., Grade 9 up slightly in 2024-25) lag report cards, per recent releases.

Potential Solutions and Future Outlook

Calls grow for standardized tests in admissions, school-adjusted scaling, or AI analytics. Ontario's 2026 expert panel may recommend reforms. Universities could expand supp apps province-wide.

By 2030, expect hybrid models prioritizing skills. Job seekers, browse university jobs or Canadian academic opportunities.

Actionable Advice for Prospective Students

1. Diversify applications: Target multiple programs/universities. 2. Excel in supp apps: Highlight extracurriculars. 3. Consider colleges: Easier entry, transfer paths. 4. Seek guidance: Use higher ed career advice.

Track OUAC timelines for 2026-27: Apps by Jan 15.

Photo by Craig Garnham on Unsplash

Conclusion: Navigating a Changing Admissions Landscape

Rising grades challenge Ontario's higher ed ecosystem but spur innovation. Stay informed, build holistically. Explore Rate My Professor, higher ed jobs, career advice, university jobs, or post a job at AcademicJobs.com.