In early January 2026, TIME magazine published an influential analysis by political scientist Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, outlining the top 10 global risks for 2026. This report, drawing from extensive geopolitical forecasting, paints 2026 as a 'tipping point year' marked by profound uncertainty. Unlike previous years dominated by U.S.-China rivalry or Russia-West tensions, Bremmer argues that the primary driver is the United States itself unwinding the global order it helped build post-World War II. This shift stems from domestic political transformations under a returning Trump administration, aggressive industrial policies, and a retreat from traditional alliances.
The list, echoed in Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks report, highlights interconnected threats across politics, technology, economics, and resources. For higher education professionals—professors, researchers, administrators, and students—these risks carry direct implications. Funding for international research collaborations could dry up, student visas might tighten, and AI disruptions could reshape teaching roles. Understanding these helps academics navigate career uncertainties, from job searches to grant applications.
Bremmer emphasizes that no imminent U.S.-China war or Russia escalation tops the list; instead, internal U.S. changes cascade globally. This perspective urges universities to diversify partnerships and funding sources beyond traditional Western allies.
🌍 1. US Political Revolution
The top risk, 'US political revolution,' refers to radical departures from institutional norms under President Trump's second term. Expect aggressive executive actions bypassing Congress, challenges to judicial independence, and purges in federal agencies. This isn't mere polarization but a reconfiguration of governance, with loyalists prioritized over expertise.
For academia, this means volatility in federal funding. Agencies like the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH), which provide billions in grants annually, could see ideological shifts. Research on climate change or diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives might face cuts, mirroring 2017-2021 trends where certain social science grants declined by 15%. Universities reliant on Title IX or affirmative action policies could encounter lawsuits and reversals.
Actionable advice: Researchers should diversify funding by targeting private foundations or state-level grants. Faculty exploring new roles can check faculty positions in less politically sensitive institutions, such as community colleges offering stability amid federal flux.
📈 2. Overpowered
'Overpowered' captures America's unchecked dominance in a fragmenting world. With military superiority, dollar hegemony, and tech giants unrivaled, the U.S. can impose sanctions or tariffs unilaterally, but this breeds resentment and accelerates de-globalization.
In higher education, U.S. universities—home to 40% of global top-ranked institutions per QS World University Rankings—risk isolation. International students, contributing $45 billion yearly to the economy, face stricter visa scrutiny, potentially dropping enrollment by 20% as in 2020. Collaborative projects with Europe or Asia could stall due to export controls on sensitive tech.
To mitigate, institutions should foster domestic talent pipelines and regional partnerships. Aspiring professors might leverage professor jobs listings to pivot toward U.S.-centric research hubs like Ivy League schools.
🛡️ 3. The Donroe Doctrine
Coined as 'Donroe Doctrine'—blending Donald Trump with the historic Monroe Doctrine—this risk signals U.S. isolationism. Latin America becomes a sphere of influence, with interventions against China or migration, sidelining multilateralism.
Academia feels this through disrupted hemispheric exchanges. Programs like Fulbright in Latin America, fostering 400,000 alumni, could shrink. Research on migration or trade, vital for social sciences, loses relevance if policies harden borders.
Scholars can adapt by focusing on North American studies or seeking research jobs aligned with domestic priorities.
🇪🇺 4. Europe Under Siege
Europe faces multifaceted threats: Russian energy coercion, migrant surges, and populist governments eroding EU cohesion. Economic stagnation exacerbates divisions, with Germany and France projecting 1% GDP growth amid fiscal rules.
Higher ed impacts include slashed Erasmus+ funding (e.g., €26 billion for 2021-2027 now strained) and brain drain. U.S. academics lose key partners for joint grants under Horizon Europe, which allocated €95 billion.
Prepare by building ties with stable allies like Canada; explore uni jobs in resilient systems.
⚔️ 5. Russia’s Second Front
Beyond Ukraine, Russia eyes Baltic states or Moldova, testing NATO amid U.S. retrenchment. Hybrid tactics—cyberattacks, disinformation—intensify, with 2025 seeing 30% rise in incidents per EU reports.
Universities face cybersecurity risks; higher ed was hit in 40% of 2025 breaches. Research on Eastern Europe halts due to travel bans.
Enhance digital defenses and pivot to clinical research jobs less exposed to geopolitics.
💼 6. State Capitalism with American Characteristics
U.S. embraces subsidies like CHIPS Act ($52 billion) and IRA ($369 billion), mirroring China's model. This spurs innovation but distorts markets, sparking retaliatory tariffs.
Academia benefits from boosted STEM funding but competes for talent. Postdoc positions surge 25% in semiconductors.
Leverage via postdoc jobs; upskill in policy-relevant fields.
🇨🇳 7. China’s Deflation Trap
China grapples with property bust, youth unemployment at 17%, and consumer price deflation. Exports falter amid U.S. tariffs, risking global spillovers.
Higher ed loses China as top sender (289,000 students in U.S. 2024); funding from Huawei or state firms dries up. Joint ventures like NYU Shanghai strain.
Diversify to India; check Ivy League guide for elite alternatives.
🤖 8. AI Eats Its Users
AI firms consolidate power, with models like GPT-5 manipulating data and users. Privacy erodes, deepfakes proliferate, widening inequality.
Teaching transforms; 70% of faculty report AI use in courses per 2025 surveys. Jobs shift to AI oversight.
Upskill via workshops; explore postdoctoral success strategies.
📜 9. Zombie USMCA
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement lingers dysfunctional, with disputes over autos and dairy fueling North American tensions.
Cross-border research, like binational labs, slows; supply chains disrupt lab equipment imports.
Focus domestically; view admin jobs for stability.
💧 10. The Water Weapon
Water scarcity weaponized in conflicts—from Nile dams to Colorado River deals—affecting 2.4 billion people by 2026 per UN.
Environmental research surges but fieldwork risks rise. Agrotech grants increase.
Target sustainability roles via research assistant jobs.
Solutions and Preparation for Academia
While daunting, these risks offer opportunities. Diversify funding: Blend federal, private, and international sources. Enhance resilience through interdisciplinary programs blending AI ethics with geopolitics.
Institutions should audit international exposures and invest in cybersecurity. Faculty can build personal brands via publications, aiding mobility.
For comprehensive stats, see the full TIME analysis.
- Prioritize portable skills like data analysis.
- Network globally via conferences.
- Monitor policy via academic networks.
Navigating 2026: Resources for Academics
As these global risks unfold, staying informed positions you ahead. Explore openings on higher ed jobs to secure roles resilient to disruptions. Share experiences on Rate My Professor for peer insights. Career guidance at higher ed career advice offers tips like crafting standout CVs. International seekers, browse university jobs worldwide. Employers, post via recruitment to attract talent amid uncertainty.
2026 demands adaptability—equip yourself today.