The Impact of Declining International Enrolment on Trinity Western University

Trinity Western University (TWU), a prominent faith-based institution in Langley, British Columbia, is navigating significant financial headwinds as fewer international students enroll due to stringent federal study permit caps. With a total student body exceeding 6,000 across 48 undergraduate and 20 graduate programs, TWU has long relied on international tuition revenue, which pays full fees without government subsidies. The abrupt drop has prompted budget realignments and workforce adjustments, echoing challenges across Canadian postsecondary education.

Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) introduced caps in 2024 to curb temporary resident growth amid housing shortages and sustainability concerns. For 2026, the cap stands at 408,000 study permits—a 7% reduction from 2025 and 16% below 2024 levels. New arrivals are limited further, contributing to enrolment plunges of up to 60% at many institutions. At TWU, this translates to revenue shortfalls necessitating immediate action to maintain fiscal health.

Background on TWU's Unique Position in Canadian Higher Education

Founded in 1962, TWU integrates evangelical Christian values with rigorous academics, distinguishing it from public universities. Located on a scenic 242-acre campus, it emphasizes holistic development, preparing students to "think truthfully, act justly, and live faithfully." While domestic undergraduate enrolment remains robust, international students—historically 20-30% of the body—provided critical funding for operations, scholarships, and infrastructure.

Prior to the caps, TWU boasted institutional resilience: zero bank debt, a growing endowment, and recent campus investments. However, the federal pivot to prioritize housing affordability and long-term immigration balance has reshaped enrolment forecasts. This shift, while addressing national pressures, has forced private institutions like TWU to recalibrate swiftly.

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Federal Policy Changes: A Step-by-Step Breakdown

The journey to these caps began in January 2024 when IRCC announced a 35% reduction in study permits for that year, exempting master's and doctoral programs initially. Provincial allocations followed, with British Columbia receiving quotas based on historical data. Extensions in 2025 halved new permits in some categories, and the 2026 budget further tightened to 408,000 total, including renewals.

• Step 1: Identify housing crisis link—intl students blamed for 40% urban rental demand spikes.
• Step 2: Cap approvals via Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs), prioritizing public undergrads.
• Step 3: Provincial targets: BC saw 50% drops in some colleges.
• Step 4: Enforcement via proof of accommodation and financials, deterring applicants.

This process, while stabilizing rents (down 5-10% in key cities), has decimated revenues at tuition-dependent schools.

TWU's Specific Financial Pressures and Response Measures

TWU's leadership issued "Faithful Stewardship Amidst Changing Canadian Postsecondary Landscape" on February 17, 2026, acknowledging the enrolment cliff. Subsequent updates detailed actions: reduced work hours, contract modifications, and position eliminations. An unconfirmed report from a staff town hall suggested around 75 positions affected campus-wide, starting early March.

President Kurt Martin's message emphasized gratitude: "We are deeply grateful for the contributions of every individual... Though structures and seasons change, the influence of your faithful work endures." Support includes career transition aid, counselling, pastoral care, and extended benefits. Crucially, no academic programs or courses face cuts—classes and supports proceed uninterrupted.

Human Impact: Staff, Faculty, and Community Reactions

Affected employees, many long-serving and mission-aligned, face uncertainty. A staffer at a streamed church service lamented: "75 people across campus are going to be let go... a lot of people in this community who are out of work." TWU's union and administration have prioritized transparency via town halls.

Students report minimal disruption, but ripple effects loom: larger classes or deferred maintenance possible. The faith community rallies with prayers and support networks, underscoring TWU's ethos.

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Broader Implications for British Columbia and Canadian Universities

TWU isn't alone. Kwantlen Polytechnic University and Langara College announced hundreds of layoffs; Algonquin College suspended 30 programs; Saskatchewan Polytechnic eyes cuts. Nationally, 75% of institutions report 35-36% drops in bachelor's/master's intl enrolment.

Private and faith-based schools suffer disproportionately, lacking per-student provincial grants. Public unis dip into reserves, but deficits mount—projected $1B+ sector-wide. Ontario's OSAP cuts compound issues elsewhere.

Stakeholder Perspectives: Government, Experts, and Educators

IRCC defends caps as essential for sustainable growth, noting rent stabilizations. Critics, including Universities Canada, warn of innovation loss—intl students contribute $22B annually pre-caps.

Experts advocate diversification: online programs, domestic marketing, alumni giving. TWU leverages strengths in nursing, business, and theology for recovery.

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Challenges for Faith-Based Institutions Like TWU

Christian universities face amplified pressures: smaller domestic pools due to niche appeal, plus past controversies (e.g., community covenant debates). Yet, TWU's debt-free status and endowment buffer shocks better than peers.

Key risks: faculty retention, research funding dips, student aid strains. Benefits of cuts: leaner operations, renewed mission focus.

Solutions and Strategic Adaptations on the Horizon

• Boost domestic recruitment via targeted campaigns and scholarships.
• Expand online/hybrid offerings for global reach without visas.
• Partnerships: Joint programs with intl unis.
• Cost efficiencies: Energy savings, shared services.
• Philanthropy: Alumni drives for endowments.

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Future Outlook: Resilience and Recovery Paths

Projections: Caps may ease post-2027 if housing improves. TWU eyes 5-10% domestic growth, program innovations in high-demand fields like health sciences. Long-term, a diversified revenue model promises stability.

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Navigating Change: Actionable Insights for Students and Professionals

Students: Verify program status, seek aid early. Faculty/staff: Upskill via certifications. Institutions: Audit dependencies, invest in retention.

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