UC PhD Candidate's Groundbreaking Work Earns National Champion Status in Global Prize

Daniel Hernández-Carrasco, a PhD candidate and research associate at the University of Canterbury (UC), has been named New Zealand's National Champion for the 2026 Frontiers Planet Prize, positioning him among 25 elite scientists worldwide shortlisted for one of three US$1 million awards. This recognition highlights his pioneering research on how climate change is disrupting Earth's natural seasons, with profound effects on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human societies. For UC, a leading New Zealand university in ecological sciences, this accolade underscores its commitment to tackling pressing global challenges through innovative, applied research.

Hernández-Carrasco's project, centered on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of changing seasonality, addresses a critical yet understudied aspect of the climate crisis. As seasons become increasingly unpredictable—think earlier snowmelt in mountains, erratic monsoons, or shifted animal migrations—the ripple effects cascade through food webs, breeding cycles, and genetic diversity. This work not only elevates UC's profile but also amplifies New Zealand's voice in international sustainability science.

From Barcelona to Aotearoa: The Journey of an Early-Career Ecologist

Born in Barcelona, Spain, Daniel Hernández-Carrasco represents the global talent drawn to New Zealand's universities for cutting-edge environmental research. Now based at UC's School of Biological Sciences, his PhD under the supervision of Professor Jonathan Tonkin has bridged ecological theory with real-world applications. Hernández-Carrasco's path reflects a growing trend in New Zealand higher education, where international students and researchers contribute significantly to domestic innovation.

During his doctoral studies, he focused on temporal dynamics in fluctuating environments, examining how species respond to environmental shifts. This foundation led to his prize-winning paper, co-authored with UC Professors Tonkin and Jason Tylianakis, and Professor David Lytle from Oregon State University. For early-career researchers like Hernández-Carrasco, such accolades provide vital momentum, especially in a field where securing funding can be challenging. UC's supportive ecosystem, including doctoral scholarships and collaborative networks, has been instrumental in nurturing talents like his.

Unpacking Changing Seasonality: A Step-by-Step Ecological Breakdown

Seasonality—the predictable rhythm of environmental cues like temperature, rainfall, and daylight—underpins life on Earth. Climate change, compounded by human activities such as dam construction, is throwing these rhythms into chaos. Hernández-Carrasco's research methodically unpacks this process:

• Step 1: Phenological Shifts – Events like spring blooming or bird migrations occur earlier or later, desynchronizing species interactions.
• Step 2: Trophic Mismatches – Predators miss prey peaks, restructuring food webs; for example, fish spawning misaligns with insect hatches.
• Step 3: Evolutionary Pressures – Reduced genetic diversity from altered breeding times weakens population resilience.
• Step 4: Ecosystem-Wide Cascades – From individual organisms to entire biomes, stability erodes, threatening services like pollination and water purification.

Published in the prestigious journal Science on May 29, 2025, the study synthesizes global data to reveal these patterns across freshwater, terrestrial, and marine systems.Read the full paper here In New Zealand, this manifests in river systems where altered flow regimes—earlier floods or prolonged droughts—imperil native species like galaxiid fish.

Applying Insights to New Zealand's River Ecosystems

Aotearoa New Zealand's rivers, vital for Māori cultural practices and biodiversity hotspots, exemplify the research's local relevance. UC's focus on freshwater ecology positions it ideally to apply these findings. Seasonal flow changes, driven by warmer temperatures and variable rainfall, disrupt invertebrate communities that form the base of aquatic food chains. Native eels (tuna) and whitebait (inanga) face recruitment failures as spawning cues mismatch peak flows.

Statistics underscore the urgency: New Zealand's rivers have seen a 20-30% shift in flow seasonality over recent decades, per NIWA projections, exacerbating biodiversity loss already at 60% for freshwater species. Hernández-Carrasco advocates integrating seasonal metrics into monitoring frameworks, a practical step for agencies like the Department of Conservation.

The Frontiers Planet Prize: Catalyzing Global Sustainability Science

Launched in 2022 by the Frontiers Research Foundation, the Frontiers Planet Prize is the world's largest for planetary health, awarding three $1M prizes annually. Inspired by COVID-19 vaccine speed, it targets breakthroughs within Johan Rockström's nine planetary boundaries—biosphere integrity, climate change, and more. The 2026 edition's 'Resilient Ecosystems' theme selected 25 National Champions via expert nominations and review.Learn more about the prize

Past editions have scaled winners' work, influencing policy from ammonia abatement in China to ocean acidification monitoring. For Hernández-Carrasco, shortlisting as NZ's champion means presenting at Davos 2027, with winners announced early 2027.

UC's Legacy in Ecology and Climate Research

University of Canterbury ranks #1 in New Zealand for ecology, evolution, and behaviour (PBRF 2018), with robust funding from MBIE and TEC supporting projects like this. Professors Tonkin and Tylianakis exemplify UC's expertise: Tonkin's river disturbance studies complement Hernández-Carrasco's work, while Tylianakis advances network ecology. UC attracts global collaborators, as seen with Oregon State's Lytle, fostering interdisciplinary PhD training.

Empowering Early-Career Researchers in NZ Higher Education

In New Zealand's competitive research landscape, prizes like this spotlight emerging talent. UC offers doctoral scholarships up to $30,000 annually, plus projects with built-in funding. For PhD students, such recognition boosts CVs, opening doors to Marsden Fund grants or lectureships. Nationally, unis invest $1.2B yearly in research (TEC 2025), prioritizing climate solutions amid NZ's vulnerability to sea-level rise and droughts.

Stakeholder Perspectives: From Supervisors to Policymakers

Professor Tonkin praises the work's "novelty and rigor," essential for biodiversity crisis solutions. Hernández-Carrasco notes, "Seasonality is fundamental yet underexplored—recognition encourages deeper dives." Māori perspectives emphasize kaitiakitanga (guardianship), aligning with integrating seasonal knowledge into iwi-led restoration. Experts like NIWA climatologists echo calls for seasonal data in Aotearoa's National Policy Statement for Freshwater.

Future Outlook: Scaling Solutions and NZ's Research Horizon

If victorious, $1M would scale models globally, partnering with UNU for policy briefs. For UC and NZ HE, it signals rising excellence in planetary science. Challenges persist—funding cuts loom—but successes like this attract talent, with NZ unis hosting 20% international PhDs in environment fields. Actionable insights: Policymakers should prioritize seasonal forecasting; unis expand interdisciplinary programs; researchers collaborate across biomes.

This milestone positions UC as a hub for resilient ecosystems research, inspiring the next generation amid climate urgency.

Photo by Merlin Kraus on Unsplash