Australian universities, represented by Universities Australia (UA), the peak body for the nation's 39 public universities, are entering 2026 amid a complex landscape of financial pressures, policy shifts, and evolving demands. As the sector powers education for over 1.5 million students annually, supports 250,000 jobs, and drives a $52 billion international education export industry, sustaining this vital engine requires addressing entrenched challenges head-on.

The backdrop includes nearly a decade of policy volatility, lingering pandemic disruptions, and escalating operational costs. While the sector recorded a 4.7% operating surplus in 2024, this figure masks underlying vulnerabilities, with temporary boosts from investment returns and international fees propping up results. Looking ahead, 2026 brings further real-terms funding reductions, declining indexation rates, and tighter controls on international enrolments, compelling UA to advocate urgently for reforms.

Financial Strain: Operating on Thin Margins

Universities Australia's recent analysis reveals a sector navigating sustained financial strain. Over 40% of universities operated in deficit for most of the past five years, with 13 still in the red in 2024 despite sector-wide improvements. Expenses surged 8% in 2024 alone, driven by salary increases outpacing inflation as institutions converted casual staff to permanent roles and restored pre-pandemic staffing levels. Salaries and on-costs now consume around 56% of ongoing expenses, leaving limited room for investment in teaching enhancements or research breakthroughs.

Liquidity issues persist: 22 universities have current ratios below 1, indicating short-term liabilities exceed assets. Debt servicing exceeds 5% of revenue for three institutions, while capital spending hovers below pre-pandemic levels at roughly $3.9 billion—less than 10% of total expenses. This underinvestment hampers maintenance of laboratories, digital infrastructure, and student facilities, potentially eroding Australia's competitive edge in innovation-driven fields like clean energy and medical research.

Declining Real Per-Student Funding

At the core of these pressures lies a 6% real-terms decline in funding per Commonwealth Supported Place (CSP) since 2017, even as enrolments grew 2%. In 2024 dollars, average funding per CSP fell from about $23,910 in 2017 to $22,543. Total real funding for CSPs dropped from $14.9 billion to $14.1 billion over the same period, despite stable place numbers around 623,000.

The Job-ready Graduates (JRG) package exacerbated misalignments: approximately 16,000 CSPs receive no subsidy, while 17,000 funded places go undelivered due to enrolment shortfalls. This inefficiency stems from funding models not reflecting actual student loads, forcing universities to prioritize debt management over educational quality. For 2026, indexation on government payments dips to 2.4% from 4.1% in 2025, compounding the squeeze amid rising costs.

• Low-SES domestic undergraduate enrolments in law and business plummeted 22% post-JRG due to fee hikes.
• Overall low-SES participation lags, hindering equity goals.
• Funded CSPs projected below 650,000 by 2028, short of demand for skills in health, engineering, and tech.

International Education: A Volatile Lifeline

International students provide about 25% of university revenue—$22 billion in 2024—fueling cross-subsidies for domestic teaching and research. Yet, this dependency introduces risks. Enrolments dipped 16% below 2019 real values in 2022 before recovering, but 2026 forecasts tighter National Overseas Student Caps (NOSC): total commencements rise to 295,000 (196,750 higher education), with public universities allocated 161,725.

Ministerial Directions 107, 111, and 115 impose soft caps at 80% allocation, alongside higher visa fees and work restrictions. Visa grant rates hover at 76-100%, but policy uncertainty threatens growth. Concentration in source countries like China and India amplifies vulnerability to geopolitical shifts. Regional campuses, reliant on these fees for viability, face heightened risks to local programs in nursing and engineering.

For deeper insights into sector finances, explore the full Critical Challenges report.

Research Underfunding and Innovation Gaps

Research accounts for 20% of university revenue, but institutions spend more than they receive—$1.06 of general funds per $1 of research income in 2022. Australia's R&D intensity hit a 20-year low of 1.7% of GDP, with public investment at 0.74% (below OECD average). Universities fund 51.7% of their research internally, subsidizing national priorities from teaching revenues.

Block grants grew modestly 15% real terms from 2014-2025, but ARC grants fell 18% and capital expenditure dropped 40% post-2019 after the Education Investment Fund's abolition. PhD stipends at $34,315 (2026) render study unviable for many—average candidate age 37, often with families—projecting a 12,000 shortfall in science PhDs by the 2030s. Without boosts, breakthroughs in AI, vaccines, and renewables stall.

Infrastructure and Regulatory Burdens

Capital spending's decline limits modernization: no direct government support since 2019 leaves universities borrowing or dipping into reserves. Compliance costs exceed $500 million annually, with academics spending more time on admin than peers in 12 nations. Universities navigate 330-420 legislative acts, a 10-63% cost rise over a decade.

These burdens divert resources from core missions, inflating student fees and taxpayer costs while stifling productivity.

Equity Challenges: Access for All?

JRG's highest fee band ($17,000/year for business/law vs. $4,600 for agriculture) deters low-SES and Indigenous students. Low-SES enrolments fell 12% overall, with only 1.5% field switches. Indigenous under-representation persists due to structural barriers, undermining the 80% tertiary attainment target by 2050—potentially forgoing $240 billion in economic gains.

UA's 2026-27 Pre-Budget Priorities

In its February 2026 submission, UA outlines practical reforms: abolish JRG's top fee band for equity; expand CSPs and restore per-student funding; sustain international growth; implement Accord Indigenous initiatives; cut red tape; revive infrastructure funding; secure Horizon Europe access; raise R&D to OECD levels; enhance PhD support.

These target skilling for 50% of new jobs requiring degrees by 2035, aligning with Productivity Commission pillars. Read the full submission for details.

• Increase PhD stipends and parental leave to build research pipeline.
• Reduce visa costs for exchanges to bolster global ties.
• Realign funding with actual enrolments via Managed Growth enhancements.

Case Studies: Regional and Sector Impacts

Regional universities exemplify vulnerabilities: thinner margins risk course cuts in teacher training or nursing, disrupting local workforces. For instance, post-pandemic, some scaled back engineering programs amid funding gaps. Nationally, AI ambitions falter as cash crunches limit compute infrastructure investments.

Governance probes highlight transparency needs, with $1.8 billion consultant spends raising questions, though UA notes complex operations. More domestic starters in 2026 (extra 9,500 places) signal demand, but without funding parity, quality suffers.

Photo by Eriksson Luo on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Pathways to Resilience

2026 tests UA's advocacy amid global uncertainty. Success hinges on budget responses: restoring funding fairness could unlock productivity, equity, and innovation. Universities stand ready to deliver Accord visions—80% attainment, robust R&D—but require policy stability.

Stakeholders from students to policymakers must collaborate. For those eyeing higher ed careers, opportunities abound in navigating these shifts, from research roles to administrative leadership.