UNSW Researchers Uncover Social Housing Construction Surge in Australia

A groundbreaking study from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) City Futures Research Centre has quantified Australia's social housing boom for the 2020s, projecting approximately 70,000 new social homes to commence construction across the nation by 2030. Led by Professor Hal Pawson, alongside Lauren Gooding and Cameron Murray, the report titled The Revival of Social Housing Construction in Australia 2020-2030 marks the first comprehensive projection of gross and net changes in social housing stock, filling critical data gaps in official statistics.

This research highlights how unprecedented public funding post-2020 has reversed decades of stagnation, delivering homes at the fastest rate since the 1980s. However, after accounting for demolitions and sales, the net addition stands at 55,000 dwellings—a 13% increase from 2020 levels—barely keeping pace with household growth and failing to dent the massive unmet demand.

Defining Social Housing in the Australian Context

Social housing in Australia encompasses public housing managed by state governments and community housing provided by not-for-profit organizations. Tenants typically pay rents capped at 25-30% of their income, far below private market rates, targeting the lowest-income households including those experiencing homelessness or severe rental stress. This sector plays a pivotal role in preventing homelessness, reducing reoffending rates, and stabilizing broader rental markets by absorbing demand from vulnerable groups.

Historically, social housing comprised 6% of total dwellings in the mid-1990s but dwindled to 4% by 2021, lagging the OECD average of 7%. The UNSW study underscores how recent investments aim to halt this decline, though expansion remains elusive.

Methodology Behind the UNSW Projections

The researchers surveyed all state and territory housing authorities (except Northern Territory) in 2025, compiling unpublished data on commencements, acquisitions, sales, and demolitions from 2020-21 to 2029-30. This was triangulated with federal program targets like the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) and Productivity Commission reports, using ABS building activity statistics for validation.

Projections assume peak state-funded activity in 2025-26 tapering off, with federal contributions ramping up. Gross commencements exclude Indigenous-specific or private inclusionary zoning schemes, focusing on government-backed social and affordable rentals. Step-by-step, the process involved: 1) Gathering jurisdictional matrices; 2) Estimating community housing provider (CHP) shares via ABS public sector data subtraction; 3) Projecting losses from known renewal programs; 4) Aggregating to national decade totals.

Key Findings: 70,000 Gross Additions, 55,000 Net Gain

From 2020-25, 32,467 social homes commenced, netting 22,000 after 9,513 losses—a 5% stock rise on 428,340 baseline dwellings. Full decade: 70,056 commencements (45,134 state/territory-funded, 24,923 federal), minus ~15,000 losses, yielding 55,000 net (13% growth).

• States contribute 64% of construction, federal 36%.
• CHPs account for ~45% of early decade builds.
• Net gain matches household projections, stabilizing 4% share.

Affordable housing adds ~30,000 units, often bundled in programs like Victoria's Big Housing Build.Full UNSW report PDF

State-by-State Performance in Social Housing Delivery

Victoria and Tasmania lead, increasing their social housing shares 2020-25 via ambitious programs. Victoria's $5.3 billion Big Housing Build targets 12,000+ homes, 75%+ social. Queensland follows with 9.1% net gain.

Projections integrate NSW, Victoria, WA self-funded builds post-2025. Read full Conversation article

Historical Decline and the 2020s Revival

Post-1996 funding cuts led to near-zero public housing starts, stock erosion via sales, and transfers to CHPs. 2010s netted just 20,000 homes. The 2009-12 GFC stimulus added 20,000 temporarily. Now, 2020s gross starts rival 1980s peaks, driven by state initiatives matching federal funds like HAFF (20,000 social homes) and Social Housing Accelerator (4,000).

This shift reflects policy reversal amid affordability crisis, with rents consuming 50%+ incomes for many low earners.

Unmet Demand: Waitlists and the 437,000 Shortfall

Despite gains, 437,000 households faced unmet need in 2021 (homeless or rental-stressed low-income renters), projected to 676,000 by 2041. Recent Report on Government Services (ROGS) 2026 data: 254,571 on waitlists at June 2025, with 411,633 applicant households vs. 432,129 dwellings. 41% of public waitlisters are homeless/at-risk, wait times ballooning as supply rations.

For deeper analysis, explore research assistant roles in housing policy.

Federal and State Programs Driving the Boom

HAFF anchors federal efforts with 20,000 social/10,000 affordable by 2029-30. States like Victoria pioneered with Big Housing Build; Tasmania's strategy boosted shares. Risks: No funding past 2030, reliance on sales historically.

• HAFF/SHA/Remote Package: 24,923 federal units.
• State peaks 2025-26: 8,681/year.
• CHPs: Growing role, 45% early builds.

Policy Recommendations from the UNSW Team

Pawson et al. urge sustained funding beyond 2030, needs-based scaling (e.g., Queensland model), governance reforms reviving Rudd-era structures, and enhanced data via AIHW/Productivity Commission. Consistent rules for providers/residents needed after decades of neglect.

Academics in housing research emphasize transparent tracking for accountability.

Spotlight: UNSW City Futures Research Centre and Hal Pawson

Professor Hal Pawson, Emeritus Professor of Housing Research and Policy, leads City Futures' housing theme, authoring 50+ journals and 120+ reports on policy, urban renewal. Collaborators Gooding (policy analyst) and Murray (economist) bolster interdisciplinary approach. This project exemplifies UNSW's impact on national challenges. Aspiring researchers can find opportunities at higher ed research jobs or Australian academic positions.

Implications for Higher Education and Housing Research Careers

Such studies underscore demand for housing experts in universities, informing policy amid crisis. With ROGS revealing worsening waitlists, interdisciplinary research in urban planning, economics, sociology thrives. Check professor salaries or academic CV tips for entry.

Photo by Zoshua Colah on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Sustaining Momentum Beyond 2030

Without extension, post-2030 decline looms. Optimism lies in state leadership and federal-state alignment, potentially expanding to OECD benchmarks. Actionable insights: Advocate needs assessments, invest in CHP capacity, prioritize renewals in high-need areas like Sydney/Melbourne. For policymakers and academics, this UNSW work sets evidence benchmark.

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