J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong served as Emeritus Professor of Marketing in the Business & Economics faculty at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, from 1968 until his retirement in 2020. He earned a Ph.D. in Management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1968, a Master of Science in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University in 1965, a Bachelor of Arts in Applied Science from Lehigh University in 1959, and a Bachelor of Science in Industrial Engineering from Lehigh University in 1960. Before joining Wharton as an assistant professor, he worked as an industrial engineer at Eastman Kodak in Rochester, New York, from 1960 to 1963, and held positions at Polaroid Corporation and Xerox Corporation. He advanced to associate professor in 1972 and full professor later in his career. Armstrong held 24 international visiting appointments at 17 universities across 14 countries, including extended stays at the Stockholm School of Economics (1974-1975) and IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland (1980-1981), and served as a research adjunct at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia, from 2011 onward. He delivered over 110 invited lectures at universities in 28 countries outside the U.S.

Armstrong's research specializations encompassed forecasting, marketing, advertising, persuasion, applied statistics, scientific method, public policy, and strategic planning. He authored key books such as Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer (1985), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (2001), and Persuasive Advertising: Evidence-based Principles (2010), the latter a finalist for the American Marketing Association’s Best Book in Marketing. His publications numbered in the hundreds, with over 37,000 Google Scholar citations and an h-index of 74 as of March 2020. Notable contributions include developing the Golden Rule of Forecasting, Persuasion Principles Index, and methods like the Forecasting Audit and Extrapolation-by-Waves. He founded the Journal of Forecasting (1982), International Journal of Forecasting (1985), International Institute of Forecasters (1982, first president), and sites like ForecastingPrinciples.com and PollyVote.com for U.S. presidential election forecasts since 2004. Armstrong received major awards including the Lifetime Achievement Award in Climate Science from the Heartland Institute (2017), Armstrong Brilliance in Research in Marketing Award (2016), Distinguished Scholar Award from the Society for Marketing Advances (2000), and Honorary Fellow for Distinguished Contributions to Forecasting from the International Institute of Forecasters (1996). He passed away on September 28, 2023.

Professional Email: armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu