The Genesis of South Africa's Government of National Unity

The Government of National Unity (GNU) in South Africa emerged from the historic national and provincial elections held on May 29, 2024. For the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC), the long-dominant ruling party, failed to secure an outright majority, receiving just 40.18% of the vote. This pivotal shift prompted President Cyril Ramaphosa's inauguration on June 19, 2024, and the formation of a coalition government comprising 10 parties, including the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Patriotic Alliance (PA), and others. Ramaphosa hailed it as the dawn of a 'new era,' emphasizing unity, economic growth, non-racialism, and non-sexism.

This coalition structure, reminiscent of the 1994 transitional GNU under Nelson Mandela, aimed to address deep-seated challenges like unemployment, inequality, and service delivery failures that plagued the previous ANC-only administrations. Thirteen months later, public sentiment remains mixed, as revealed by the latest Afrobarometer survey.

Afrobarometer's Round 10 Survey: Methodology and Scope

Afrobarometer, a pan-African nonpartisan research network, conducted its Round 10 survey in South Africa from June 28 to July 19, 2025. Face-to-face interviews were held with 1,600 randomly selected adult citizens in their preferred language, ensuring a nationally representative sample stratified by demographics. The margin of error stands at ±2.5% at a 95% confidence level. This marks the 11th such survey in South Africa since 2000, providing robust longitudinal data on public attitudes toward democracy, governance, and socioeconomic issues.

The survey probed views on elected officials' responsiveness, national priorities, the 2024 election's integrity, and the GNU's performance, offering a snapshot 13 months post-election amid ongoing coalition dynamics.

Divided Opinions on GNU's Problem-Solving Effectiveness

At the heart of the survey, South Africans are evenly split on the GNU's ability to tackle the nation's most pressing problems. Exactly 40% rate it as 'somewhat' or 'very effective,' while 38% deem it 'somewhat' or 'very ineffective,' with 22% neutral or unsure. This near-even divide underscores the coalition's fragile public mandate.

Demographic variations reveal nuances: Urban residents are more optimistic (43%) than rural ones (33%), the elderly (56+) at 45% exceed youth (18-35) at 38%, and those with no lived poverty rate it higher (54%) than high-poverty groups (37%). By ethnicity, South Asians/Indians lead at 55%, followed by Whites/Europeans (42%) and Blacks/Africans (40%), with Coloured/Mixed at a low 25%. Education shows minimal gap (41% post-secondary vs 38% primary/no formal), as does gender (both 40%).

These splits reflect polarized expectations, with economically secure and urban groups more approving, possibly due to perceived stability gains.

National Priorities: Unemployment Tops the List

Citizens pinpoint unemployment as the paramount issue (55%), followed by crime/security (35%), water supply (31%), infrastructure/roads (28%), corruption (21%), electricity (18%), housing (16%), health (15%), and education (13%). This hierarchy mirrors chronic challenges exacerbated by economic stagnation, load-shedding, and post-COVID recovery.

• Unemployment persists at official rates above 32%, with youth unemployment exceeding 60%, fueling social unrest.
• Crime rates, including gender-based violence, remain alarmingly high despite GNU pledges.
• Service delivery failures in water, roads, and power symbolize governance breakdowns.

Government performance fares poorly: 96% rate job creation 'fairly/very bad,' 92% on corruption, 91% on crime, down to 52% on education. Only minorities give positive marks, highlighting a disconnect between rhetoric and results.

Persistent Service Delivery Crisis

The electricity crisis (64% bad rating) stems from Eskom's mismanagement, with load-shedding stages persisting into 2026. Water shortages affect millions, while road infrastructure decay hampers commerce. These issues, rooted in underinvestment and corruption, test the GNU's collaborative capacity across ideological divides.

Photo by Thakhani Siphuma on Unsplash

2024 Election: Free and Fair or Flawed?

Perceptions of the election split similarly: 48% view it as 'completely free and fair' (27%) or with 'minor problems' (21%), versus 44% citing 'major problems' (29%) or 'not free and fair' (15%). Party lines sharpen views—DA (73%) and EFF (69%) supporters most positive, ANC/MK at 60%, nonpartisans lowest (47%). Despite glitches like long queues and tech failures, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) affirmed its integrity.

This polarization fuels narratives of electoral manipulation, particularly among opposition skeptics, impacting trust in democratic institutions.

Listening to the People: A Perceived Deficit

Overwhelmingly, 85% insist officials prioritize voter demands over personal ideas. Yet, 51% claim MPs 'never' listen, 48% for councillors—highlighting a representation crisis. Only 14% say MPs always/often listen, signaling alienation in the world's most unequal society.

On governance preferences, 65% favored single-party rule pre-election, rising among rural (71%), elderly (70%), and poor (79%) groups. Half (50%) accept one-party dominance if elections are fair, with ANC supporters (65%) more tolerant.

Unity Amid Division: 59% See More That Unites

Positively, 59% agree the GNU proves 'more unites than divides' South Africans, versus 19% disagreeing. This suggests coalition symbolism resonates, fostering hope despite performance doubts. For the GNU—spanning progressive ANC to market-oriented DA—it underscores unity's appeal in a rainbow nation scarred by apartheid legacies.

However, 49% favor occasional power turnover, balancing stability with accountability.

Broader Democratic Health: Echoes from Earlier Findings

Consistent with October 2025 Afrobarometer data, 40% effective/38% ineffective holds, amid 70% dissatisfaction with democracy's functioning—highest among poor (79%), middle-aged (77%), jobless (76%). Democracy preference rose to 49% from 40% in 2021, but military rule support hit 49% (from 28% in 2022), alarming researchers.

Afrobarometer's Round 10 news release details these trends, warning of fragility.

Stakeholder Perspectives and Challenges

ANC views the GNU as reform catalyst, DA pushes fiscal prudence, EFF critiques neoliberalism. Ipsos April 2025 poll showed 40% doubting GNU cooperation, aligning with Afrobarometer. Economic headwinds—GDP growth ~0.6% in 2025, debt at 75% GDP—compound pressures. Solutions like Operation Vulindlela (jobs, energy) show promise but face execution hurdles.

Photo by Hennie Stander on Unsplash

Implications for Policy and Future Outlook

The survey signals urgency for GNU to deliver on jobs (e.g., youth programs, SMME support) and basics (infrastructure pacts). Bridging urban-rural, rich-poor divides via inclusive growth is key. If unaddressed, rising military support risks democratic backsliding. Optimistically, unity perception offers coalition longevity till 2029, potentially stabilizing markets. For academics, it highlights political science's role in tracking sentiment.

Actionable insights: Enhance MP-councillor engagement via town halls; target poverty alleviation for broader buy-in.

Conclusion: A Coalition at the Crossroads

South Africans' division on GNU effectiveness—40% yes, 38% no—mirrors high stakes. With unemployment rampant and services faltering, the coalition must prioritize voter voices to sustain unity's promise. Afrobarometer data equips leaders and citizens alike for informed discourse.Read the full dispatch.