Australia Social Housing Crisis: UNSW Study Finds 55,000 New Homes Still Fall Short

📊 Unveiling the UNSW Study on Australia's Social Housing Landscape

A groundbreaking report from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) City Futures Research Centre has cast fresh light on Australia's ongoing social housing crisis. Titled 'The Revival of Social Housing Construction in Australia 2020-2030,' the study, authored by housing experts Hal Pawson and Chris Martin, projects a net increase of 55,000 social housing dwellings by 2030. This figure accounts for both new constructions and acquisitions totaling around 70,000 units, offset by approximately 15,000 losses from demolitions and sales.

Social housing, which includes public housing managed by governments and community housing operated by not-for-profit providers, offers subsidized rentals typically capped at 25% to 30% of a tenant's income. It serves the lowest-income households, including those experiencing homelessness, families in severe rental stress, and individuals with disabilities. The report highlights that this net gain represents a 13% expansion from the 2020 baseline stock of about 428,000 dwellings, stabilizing the sector's share at roughly 4% of Australia's total housing—a level unchanged since the early 2020s but well below the mid-1990s peak of 6% and the OECD average of 7% among comparable nations.

While this marks the fastest construction pace since the 1980s, nearly tripling the meager 20,000 additions of the prior decade, the study underscores a critical shortfall. With an estimated 437,000 households facing unmet need in 2021—defined as those who are homeless or very low-income renters spending more than 50% of income on housing—the projected supply barely keeps pace with household growth, failing to dent the backlog.

Historical Decline: From Abundance to Scarcity

Australia's social housing sector has endured decades of gradual erosion. In the post-World War II era through the 1970s, governments built extensively to support economic recovery and urbanization, peaking at 16% of new housing starts. By the mid-1990s, amid neoliberal policy shifts, the stock share hovered at 6%. However, the 1996 Commonwealth-State Housing Agreement (CSHA) funding cut of 30% triggered a sharp downturn, with public housing starts plummeting from 12,000 annually in the 1990s to under 2,000 by the 2010s.

During 2000-2020, net additions totaled just 20,000, as sales, transfers to community providers, and demolitions outpaced builds. Brief revivals occurred, such as the 2009-2012 Social Housing Initiative under the Rudd-Gillard governments, adding around 20,000 dwellings in response to the global financial crisis. Yet, without sustained investment, the sector stagnated, exacerbating rental market pressures and contributing to rising homelessness—from 116,000 people in 2016 to 122,000 in 2021 per Census data.

This historical underinvestment has left a legacy of ageing stock, concentrated in urban fringes, and insufficient adaptation to demographic shifts like population ageing and increased sole-parent families.

📈 The 2020s Boom: Federal and State Initiatives Driving Change

The current decade's revival stems from an unprecedented surge in public funding, primarily led by state and territory governments (64% of projected additions), complemented by federal programs since 2023. Victoria pioneered with its $5.3 billion Big Housing Build, targeting over 12,000 dwellings, more than 75% social. Queensland followed with a $10 billion commitment, Tasmania and Western Australia launched ambitious plans, and New South Wales ramped up after early lags.

Federally, the Albanese government's Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) allocates over $10 billion for 20,000 social homes and 10,000 affordable rentals by 2029-30. The $2 billion Social Housing Accelerator aims for 4,000 units by 2028, while a $4.4 billion Remote Housing Package targets up to 2,700 in the Northern Territory. From 2020-2025, these efforts yielded 32,000 gross starts, netting 22,000 after losses—a 5% stock increase.

• Capital expenditure doubled from $1.9 billion in 2017-18 to $4.9 billion in 2024-25 (real terms).
• Community housing providers delivered 45% of early-decade builds, poised to dominate HAFF projects.
• Social starts comprised 3.4% of total housing construction, echoing early post-war levels but far below 1945-1970 peaks.

Read the full UNSW City Futures report for detailed projections.

State-by-State Variations: Leaders and Laggards

Performance varies widely across jurisdictions. Victoria and Tasmania boosted their social housing shares between 2020-2025, with net gains of 11.1% and 14.8% respectively relative to baseline stock. Queensland added 9.1% net, driven by proactive planning.

South Australia saw a net loss of 1%, with more units sold or demolished than added. New South Wales and the ACT balanced precariously early on, but recent investments promise gains. These disparities reflect differing policy priorities and fiscal capacities.

The Persistent Shortfall: Waitlists, Unmet Need, and Renewal Challenges

Despite progress, 55,000 new homes fall short. National public housing waitlists hit 169,000 households in June 2024, with 43% in 'greatest need'—a record high, up 66% since 2014. New South Wales alone reports 67,316 applicants as of December 2025. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) echoes this, estimating 377,600 to 678,300 households require social or affordable housing by 2025.

Demolitions for renewal—6,072 from 2020-2025, mostly in Sydney and Melbourne—dilute net gains, as ageing estates are replaced one-for-one or less. No programs extend funding beyond 2030, risking reversal. Data gaps hinder planning, with no routine national tracking of construction versus losses.

Explore NHSAC's insights in their State of the Housing System 2025 report.

Impacts of the Crisis: Homelessness, Health, and Economic Toll

The social housing deficit fuels broader woes. Homelessness affects 122,000 Australians (2021 Census), with First Nations people overrepresented at 20.4% of cases—8.8 times the non-Indigenous rate. Rental stress impacts low-income renters, crowding 60,000 into inadequate dwellings. Older Australians face 'aged homelessness,' with rental stress among over-75s surging 116% since 2013.

Economically, shortages inflate private rents (up 40.7% recently) and house prices, sidelining young buyers. Social housing stabilizes markets, yielding $2 in savings per $1 invested by averting homelessness costs. For higher education, the crisis strains student accommodation, prompting universities like UNSW to advocate through research. Aspiring researchers can contribute via roles in housing policy studies.

Pathways Forward: Policy Recommendations and Optimism

The UNSW report calls for sustained investment to grow the sector to 6-10% of stock, matching OECD peers. Key steps include:

• Extending funding beyond 2030 with need-based assessments (e.g., Tasmania/Queensland models).
• Overhauling governance via the National Agreement on Social Housing and Homelessness.
• Enhancing data via AIHW and Productivity Commission.
• Inclusionary zoning and First Nations-led builds for remote areas.

Positive momentum from the National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million total homes by 2029, with 55,000 social/affordable. Community housing expansion and federal-state collaboration offer hope. Academics and policymakers at Australian universities are pivotal, with opportunities in university jobs focused on urban planning.

Photo by Esther Zheng on Unsplash

Conclusion: Building a Fairer Housing Future

Australia's social housing revival is commendable, but the UNSW study signals more action is needed to bridge the chasm. By prioritizing long-term commitments and innovative delivery, governments can alleviate the crisis, fostering stable communities. For those in higher education, engaging with these issues through research or teaching is vital—check Rate My Professor for insights on housing experts, explore higher ed jobs in policy research, or visit career advice for paths forward. Share your thoughts in the comments below.