Navigating Perceptions: Why Many Australians Believe Crime is Surging

Across Australia, public anxiety about crime has reached new heights. Surveys from Roy Morgan indicate that concern levels post-pandemic hit record highs, with Queensland at 77 percent and Victoria at 72 percent of respondents expressing worry. Media coverage of high-profile incidents, social media amplification, and economic pressures contribute to this sentiment. Yet, official data paints a more nuanced picture. The disconnect between perception and reality underscores the importance of turning to empirical research from bodies like the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC). This analysis delves into the most recent datasets, primarily from the 2024-25 financial year, to address whether crime is truly increasing.

National Victimisation Rates: Stability Amid Fluctuations

The ABS Crime Victimisation Survey, conducted through the Multipurpose Household Survey, provides self-reported experiences of crime among Australians aged 15 and over. In 2024-25, 3.9 percent of this population—or 861,400 people—experienced personal crimes such as physical assault, threatened assault, robbery, or sexual assault. Household crimes affected 8.5 percent of households, totaling 913,700 cases including break-ins, thefts, and property damage.

Compared to 2023-24, most categories remained stable: physical assault at 1.8 percent, face-to-face threatened assault at 2.1 percent, and robbery steady at 0.3 percent. A slight decline appeared in break-ins, dropping from 2.1 percent to 1.8 percent. Over the longer term, from 2014-15, declines are evident in physical assault (2.1 percent to 1.8 percent), threatened assaults, break-ins (2.7 percent to 1.8 percent), and malicious property damage (5.7 percent to 3.4 percent). Sexual assault saw a modest rise from 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent.

Police reporting rates hover around 40-60 percent for personal crimes and 45-88 percent for household ones, with motor vehicle theft most likely to be reported at 88 percent. Reasons for non-reporting often include viewing incidents as trivial or believing police action unlikely.

Police-Proceeded Offenders: Numbers Up, Rates Down

The ABS Recorded Crime - Offenders data reveals 344,620 individuals proceeded against by police in 2024-25, a 1 percent increase or 3,939 more than the prior year. However, the offender rate per 100,000 persons aged 10 and over fell to 1,420—the lowest since 2008-09—accounting for population growth.

Principal offences included acts intended to cause injury (98,530 offenders, 29 percent), illicit drug offences (47,550, down 1 percent), theft (35,266), and offences against justice (32,081, up 3 percent). The median offender age rose to 32 years, reflecting an aging profile.

Victim Counts: Selective Increases in Recorded Incidents

Turning to victims, ABS data for 2024 shows 448 homicide victims, up 9 percent but with a stable rate of 2 per 100,000. Sexual assault victims rose 10 percent to 40,087, the highest rate at 147 per 100,000, predominantly affecting females (81 percent) and often in residential settings (69 percent). Other theft hit 595,660 victims (up 6 percent), motor vehicle theft 65,603 (up 8 percent), while blackmail/extortion fell 34 percent.

Family and domestic violence (FDV) links are prominent: 39 percent of homicides and 41 percent of sexual assaults. For detailed breakdowns, the ABS Recorded Crime Victims release offers comprehensive tables.

State Variations: Victoria and Queensland Lead Increases

Trends diverge by state. Victoria's Crime Statistics Agency reported 483,583 criminal incidents to June 2025, up 18.3 percent, with offences up 13.8 percent per capita—the highest in nine years. Theft surged 29-41 percent, assaults 13 percent. In contrast, NSW via BOCSAR shows stability or declines in most categories to December 2025, with property crime down over ten years despite violent crime rises.

Queensland saw 620,898 offences in 2024-25, up 1 percent. Western Australia and South Australia noted offender increases of 8 percent and 12 percent. Nationally, offender rates declined in NSW, Victoria, and Queensland but rose elsewhere.

• Victoria: Incidents +18.3%, driven by theft and family violence.
• NSW: Stable, property down long-term.
• Queensland: Offences +1%, youth crime down.
• WA: Offenders +8%, highest rate since 2009-10.

Youth Crime: Declining Numbers Challenge the Narrative

Youth offenders aged 10-17 totaled 44,583, down 5 percent, with rates at 1,660 per 100,000—the lowest in over a decade for drugs. Acts intended to cause injury remain common (26 percent). Northern Territory saw sharp drops, while some states like Victoria noted record youth arrests. Research from the AIC and academics emphasizes diversion programs' role in these declines.

Family and Domestic Violence: A Persistent Upward Trend

FDV offenders reached 97,800, up 8 percent, 28 percent of all offenders. Rates hit 403 per 100,000, mostly male (78 percent) aged 30-39. Assaults (52 percent) and order breaches (27 percent) dominate. This rise aligns with increased reporting and post-COVID effects, per AIC analyses.

Cybercrime: High Incidence but Stabilizing

The AIC's Cybercrime in Australia 2024 report, based on 10,335 respondents, found 27 percent victimized by online abuse, 20.6 percent by malware, 21.9 percent by identity misuse, and 9.5 percent by scams—down from 2023 in several areas. Poly-victimization and data breaches declined, though impacts like health harms rose. Explore the full AIC Cybercrime report for methodologies.

Insights from University Researchers and Criminologists

Australian universities contribute vital perspectives. Monash University's retail studies highlight shifting attitudes toward theft amid rising incidents. ANU's criminology centre and The Conversation articles by experts like those at Policing Insight argue Australia is less violent overall, with fluctuations not signaling a crisis. BOCSAR research in NSW links rises to better recording, not surges. The 2025 Applied Research in Crime and Justice Conference underscored data-driven policy.

Criminology programs at universities like UNSW, Melbourne, and Griffith train researchers analyzing these trends, blending quantitative stats with qualitative insights on socioeconomic drivers.

Underlying Factors: Population, Reporting, and Socioeconomics

Population growth masks raw increases; adjusted rates often decline. Improved reporting, especially for sexual assault and FDV, inflates figures. Post-pandemic effects, cost-of-living pressures, and youth disengagement play roles. AIC's Crime & Justice Research 2025 compiles studies on Indigenous arrests, child exploitation, and policing innovations.

• Increased police proceedings (e.g., Victoria +10 percent).
• Economic strain boosting property crime.
• Tech enabling cyber threats.

Looking Ahead: Solutions and Research Directions

While not a blanket increase, targeted rises in FDV, theft, and state-specific spikes warrant action. Prevention via education, diversion for youth, and tech safeguards show promise. Universities lead in evidence-based policies, from AI predictive policing at UniSC to restorative justice models. For the latest ABS victimisation data and BOCSAR trends, stakeholders can inform strategies. Ultimately, balanced research counters fear, fostering safer communities.

Photo by DJ Paine on Unsplash