Paul Scherrer Institute Unveils Game-Changing Insights on Low-Carbon Fuel Pipelines

Researchers at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Switzerland's leading multi-disciplinary research facility affiliated with ETH Zurich and EPFL, have released a landmark study revealing how pipelines could dramatically lower the costs of low-carbon fuels for Europe. Published in Energy & Environmental Science, the analysis compares 21 production technologies across global locations from 2024 to 2050. The findings underscore that no single low-carbon fuel dominates universally; instead, regional resources and infrastructure like pipelines determine economic viability.

Low-carbon fuels—such as green hydrogen produced via electrolysis using renewable electricity, blue hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), turquoise hydrogen through methane pyrolysis, ammonia, methanol, and biofuels derived from biomass—are essential for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, shipping, and heavy industry. These fuels emit significantly fewer greenhouse gases than fossil counterparts, aligning with the European Union's goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

The PSI team's techno-economic assessment, led by Zipeng Liu from the Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA), factors in capital expenditure, operational costs, labor rates, and crucially, the cost of capital influenced by country risk and technology maturity. Geospatial elements, like solar irradiance in Spain or natural gas abundance in North Africa, play pivotal roles in production costs.

Understanding Low-Carbon Fuels: From Production to Distribution

Low-carbon fuels encompass a spectrum of alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. Green hydrogen, for instance, involves splitting water (H2O) into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen using electricity from solar or wind sources. The process, known as electrolysis, requires proton exchange membrane (PEM) or alkaline electrolyzers. Blue hydrogen adds CCS to steam methane reforming (SMR) of natural gas, capturing over 90% of CO2 emissions. Turquoise hydrogen pyrolyzes methane (CH4) into hydrogen and solid carbon, avoiding CO2 altogether.

Synthetic fuels like e-methanol (CH3OH) or e-ammonia (NH3) are produced via power-to-X (PtX) pathways: CO2 capture, combined with green hydrogen. Biofuels, meanwhile, derive from sustainable biomass via processes like Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or ethanol fermentation. Distribution poses the next challenge—liquefied shipping dominates long distances, but pipelines offer cheaper, lower-emission transport for hydrogen and derivatives over shorter routes.

In Europe, where direct electrification falters for long-haul transport, these fuels could bridge the gap. The PSI study models transport from global ports like Antwerp to inland hubs such as Basel, Switzerland, highlighting pipelines' edge over trucks or rail.

Methodology Behind PSI's Global Cost Analysis

Zipeng Liu, Tom Terlouw, Patrick Frey, Christian Bauer, and Russell McKenna employed a harmonized framework to ensure apples-to-apples comparisons across 21 technologies and numerous countries. Lifetime levelized cost of production (LCOP) was calculated, incorporating geospatial data on renewable potential, gas reserves, and biomass yields. Scenarios projected costs to 2050, assuming renewable electricity prices fall 60-80% and electrolyzer costs drop similarly.

Financing was key: higher-risk countries face elevated capital costs (e.g., 10-15% weighted average cost of capital, WACC), versus 4-6% in stable OECD nations. Sub-national variations were noted but aggregated nationally for feasibility. Transport modeling simulated delivery to Europe: maritime shipping to Rotterdam/Antwerp, then inland via pipeline (cheapest for H2), barge, rail, or truck.

"Geospatial factors play a crucial role," Liu stated. "The availability of local energy sources... have a large impact." This rigorous approach reveals why uniform global assumptions mislead policy.

Key Technologies and Their Regional Strengths

Blue and turquoise hydrogen shine in gas-rich locales like the US Gulf, Middle East (Qatar, Saudi Arabia), and Central Asia, with LCOP under $2/kg H2 today. Green hydrogen surges ahead post-2030 in solar-heavy Spain, wind-swept North Sea, or vast Australian outback, potentially dipping below $1.5/kg by 2050. Bio-methanol competes where biomass abounds, like Brazil or Indonesia.

• Electrofuels (e-kerosene, e-methane): Viable near cheap renewables + CO2 sources.
• Ammonia: Easier to liquefy/ship than H2, but energy-intensive.
• Biofuels: Limited by sustainable feedstock scalability.

Europe lags in cheap gas but excels in renewables. Spain's solar capacity—over 30 GW installed, targeting 100 GW by 2030—positions it as a green H2 exporter within the continent. North Africa's gas for blue/turquoise variants adds diversity.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

Pipelines: The Cost-Reshaping Infrastructure for Europe

Pipelines emerge as the study's linchpin for Europe's low-carbon fuel strategy. Transporting hydrogen or ammonia via dedicated or repurposed natural gas lines slashes costs 50-70% versus shipping for distances under 2,000 km. From Spain to central Europe (e.g., Basel), pipelines could make local green H2 competitive against Australian imports.

North Africa-Mediterranean links, like proposed Morocco-Spain or Algeria-Italy extensions, enable cheap blue H2 imports. The H2Med corridor (Spain-France-Germany) exemplifies this: a 400 km BarMar offshore pipeline from Barcelona to Marseille, capacity 2 Mt H2/year, funded €2.5bn EU/IPCEI. SoutH2 and SunsHyne corridors eye North African integration by 2030.

"A European pipeline system would strongly contribute," per the study, undercutting distant suppliers.

Europe's Strategic Position and Import Rankings

PSI's country rankings pinpoint Spain, Norway (North Sea wind), and potentially Morocco/Algeria as prime suppliers to Europe. By 2050, Spanish green H2 could reach Basel at $2-3/kg delivered, versus $4+/kg shipped from Chile. North Africa's gas edges for near-term blue variants.

EU's REPowerEU plan targets 20 Mt renewable H2 by 2030, 10 Mt imports. Pipelines align with Gas Directive revisions for 5.5% H2 blending rising to 100% pure H2 networks. Challenges: permitting delays, material compatibility (e.g., embrittlement), capacity scaling.

For researchers eyeing energy systems, PSI's LEA offers models blending tech assessment and economics—ideal for PhD/postdocs in sustainable energy.Explore research jobs

Challenges: Technology Readiness and Financing Hurdles

Despite promise, many PtX techs score low on Technology Readiness Level (TRL 4-6). Turquoise H2, solid carbon byproduct adds revenue but scales slowly. Financing: Europe's stable WACC (5%) aids, but Africa/Middle East risks inflate costs 2x.

Policy gaps: EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) favors low-carbon imports, but mandates certification (e.g., EU Hydrogen Bank auctions). Infrastructure: €80bn needed for H2 backbone by 2030 per ENTSO-G.

• Risks: Supply chain vulnerabilities, over-reliance on imports.
• Solutions: Blending mandates, subsidies like Innovation Fund (€40bn).

Liu notes: "Policymakers need to consider local factors."

Stakeholder Perspectives: Industry, Policy, and Academia

EU Commission praises pipeline corridors as "energy security cornerstones." Spain's IDAE targets 4 GW electrolyzers; Morocco's 52 GW solar vision eyes exports. Industry: Enagás, GRTgaz advance H2Med; Fluxys repurposes gas grids.

Academia: ETH/EPFL collaborations with PSI drive modeling. Critics warn of greenwashing—ensure "additionality" for renewables. Balanced view: pipelines + local production diversify vs. LNG dependence.Europe higher ed news

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Towards a Pipeline-Enabled Net-Zero Europe

By 2050, PSI projects 50-70% cost parity with fossils if infrastructure scales. H2Med operational by 2030 could supply 10% EU H2 needs; SoutH2 adds North African volume. R&D priorities: efficient electrolyzers, CCUS integration.

Actionable insights: Invest in Iberian solar hubs, Mediterranean links. For careers, energy modeling demands systems analysts—PSI exemplifies interdisciplinary roles.Higher ed research jobs

Careers in Low-Carbon Energy Research Across Europe

This PSI breakthrough spotlights surging demand for experts in techno-economic modeling, energy systems, and sustainable fuels. Universities like ETH Zurich seek postdocs; industry needs pipeline engineers. Explore opportunities in higher ed jobs, research positions, and university roles. Platforms like Rate My Professor offer insights into top programs; career advice guides transitions.

Europe's energy transition creates thousands of roles—join the pipeline revolution.